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  #91  
Old Apr 27, '12, 4:27 am
lynnvinc lynnvinc is offline
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Question Re: Some Himalayan glaciers actually growing, scientists find

I'll try to explain how it can be colder than usual in places in a globally warming world:

First of all GW has to do with the average temperatures around the world and over a long time -- decades or centuries -- and the stats show warming has been happening (about .8C above the pre-industrial temp).

On shorter time spans, like a decade or less, and smaller areas, like regions or continents, there will be warmer/cooler & wetter/drier fluctuations, which Hansen refers to as "sloshings" to help us laypersons understand what's happening.

Natural fluctuations in climate patterns lasting a short time (a season, a few years, or a decade) that bring colder or warmer and wetter or drier than usual weather to various parts of the world include: the El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO), the Antarctic oscillation, the Arctic oscillation, and the North Atlantic oscillation, etc. It's important to look at the worldwide temps over a long period to detect global warming, and not rely on local or regional or short-term temps.

However, one disturbing possibility for my area (not yet at high scientific confidence) is that GW may lead to more frequent strongly negative Arctic oscillations -- a few studies indicate that. The usual pattern is for the winds to move west to east around the Arctic and mid to high northern latitudes -- like a pot on a potters wheel. Occasionally the pattern shift to a north to south pattern (a negative Arctic oscillation) bringing colder weather from the Arctic down south, leaving the Arctic a lot warmer. When this happens it brings killing freezes to N. Mexico and my Rio Grande Valley area and destroys our winter crops and home garden crops.

I really hope these do not become more intense and/or more frequent, esp since it is too hot here to grow crops in the summer
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  #92  
Old Apr 27, '12, 4:29 am
St Francis St Francis is offline
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Default Re: Some Himalayan glaciers actually growing, scientists find

Quote:
Originally Posted by lynnvinc View Post
...Please open your minds and hearts to understand how these seemingly contradictory things could be happening in a globally warming world. I realize AGW is an extremely complex issue, and it is good that laypersons are struggling to understand all its aspects.
I have tried, but we have a theory in which the scientists predict, and then either nothing or the opposite happens. Then they "re-arrange" their predictions and explanations to fit their pre-conceived idea that GW is happening, when the Earth's temp has remained the same for 15 years.

I know it must be very hard for the GW believers, but with such slippery evidence it is hard to convince some folks.
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  #93  
Old Apr 27, '12, 4:38 am
lynnvinc lynnvinc is offline
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Default Re: Some Himalayan glaciers actually growing, scientists find

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I have tried, but we have a theory in which the scientists predict, and then either nothing or the opposite happens. Then they "re-arrange" their predictions and explanations to fit their pre-conceived idea that GW is happening, when the Earth's temp has remained the same for 15 years.

I know it must be very hard for the GW believers, but with such slippery evidence it is hard to convince some folks.
I know these scientists. They are very honest and hard-working. They also have children and would not want AGW to be happening.

There are lots of things that impact climate, the sun being the most important. The earths orbit and wobble have an impact in terms of how much solar irradiation earth gets and where (land-sea configurations) and can lead to ice ages and inter-glacials (which we are in now). And the atmospheric composition, the GHGs, such as CO2, etc., is also a factor in the climate. In fact, without the GH effect earth would be too cold for life to exist.

The sun also has short-term cycles (about 11 years or so) of more or less irradiation, and we have been in a solar minimum for some 10 years, I believe. All these things are being measured and figured into what's happening. The climate should have become a lot colder during this period of solar minimum (if there had not be the enhanced GH effect) , but instead it continued to warm, though not at much as previous decades when there were solar maximums. It's a multi-variable equation. When one controls for these other variables, then it very clearly indicates that the GHGs are causing most of the warming we see (or are not allowing it to get colder during solar minima).
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  #94  
Old Apr 27, '12, 5:13 am
vz71 vz71 is offline
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Default Re: Some Himalayan glaciers actually growing, scientists find

Quote:
Originally Posted by lynnvinc View Post
(about .8C above the pre-industrial temp).
Allow me to explain the first issue many are having with your explanations.

You specify above .8C above pre-industrial.

You do realize that at the time there was no way to measure the global temperature to that degree of accuracy...right?

Any claim of warming at that point is based upon a faulty premise.
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  #95  
Old Apr 27, '12, 8:16 am
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DCNBILL DCNBILL is offline
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Default Re: Some Himalayan glaciers actually growing, scientists find

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Originally Posted by vz71 View Post
Allow me to explain the first issue many are having with your explanations.

You specify above .8C above pre-industrial.

You do realize that at the time there was no way to measure the global temperature to that degree of accuracy...right?

Any claim of warming at that point is based upon a faulty premise.
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  #96  
Old Apr 27, '12, 8:35 am
SamH SamH is offline
 
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Default Re: Some Himalayan glaciers actually growing, scientists find

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Originally Posted by vz71 View Post
Allow me to explain the first issue many are having with your explanations.

You specify above .8C above pre-industrial.

You do realize that at the time there was no way to measure the global temperature to that degree of accuracy...right?

Any claim of warming at that point is based upon a faulty premise.
Agreed.

Any average temp used from that period (pre industrial) is using a collection of temperature data that relied upon the technology and gathering techniques of the time. Now you can say that they “adjusted” for these possible errors but that only means the data is even more corrupt than it already was.

Even modern data collection varies more than that due to human/computer error. Remember the proclamation a few years ago that a particular September was the warmest September in recorded history. It was only after outside sources examined the data that they questioned the startling anomaly that Russian sources reported the exact same data for September that it had for August. As it turned out they lost September's data and turned in August again hoping no one would notice. Given how easily they missed the reason for that startling bit of information one can only wonder if the data from 1819 has similar but less noticeable errors.
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  #97  
Old Apr 27, '12, 8:09 pm
lynnvinc lynnvinc is offline
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Default Re: Some Himalayan glaciers actually growing, scientists find

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Originally Posted by vz71 View Post
Allow me to explain the first issue many are having with your explanations.

You specify above .8C above pre-industrial.

You do realize that at the time there was no way to measure the global temperature to that degree of accuracy...right?

Any claim of warming at that point is based upon a faulty premise.
Actually I mispoke, it has warmed .8C above temps of 100 years ago.

And they do have ways to estimate temps back many millions of years through many different types of proxies which fairly well align with each other. E.g., ice cores, tree rings, sub-fossil pollen, boreholes, corals, lake and ocean sediments, stalactites/stalagmites, fora-minifera, etc.

The way proxies are done is to see whether they match up with the instrumental records, and if they do, then use them for time periods when there are no instrumental records. The science on this is very robust now, with many proxies lining up fairly well. For a summary of this, you can learn more about this at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proxy_(climate)
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  #98  
Old Apr 27, '12, 8:17 pm
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Default Re: Some Himalayan glaciers actually growing, scientists find

Looks like the artic recovered somewhat this year
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  #99  
Old Apr 27, '12, 8:40 pm
vz71 vz71 is offline
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Default Re: Some Himalayan glaciers actually growing, scientists find

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Originally Posted by lynnvinc View Post
Actually I mispoke, it has warmed .8C above temps of 100 years ago.
Same problem.

This requires knowledge of the global temperatures of that time to a degree of accuracy that was not in existence.
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  #100  
Old Apr 27, '12, 8:42 pm
vz71 vz71 is offline
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Default Re: Some Himalayan glaciers actually growing, scientists find

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Originally Posted by lynnvinc View Post
And they do have ways to estimate temps back many millions of years through many different types of proxies which fairly well align with each other. E.g., ice cores, tree rings, sub-fossil pollen, boreholes, corals, lake and ocean sediments, stalactites/stalagmites, fora-minifera, etc.
But not accurate to tenths of a degree C.
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  #101  
Old Apr 27, '12, 11:29 pm
lynnvinc lynnvinc is offline
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Default Re: Some Himalayan glaciers actually growing, scientists find

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Originally Posted by vz71 View Post
But not accurate to tenths of a degree C.
They have big error bars, that is true, but the upper end of those are still below today's temps.
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  #102  
Old Apr 28, '12, 6:26 am
lynnvinc lynnvinc is offline
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Default Re: Some Himalayan glaciers actually growing, scientists find

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Originally Posted by lynnvinc View Post
They have big error bars, that is true, but the upper end of those are still below today's temps.
Here's an image of those proxies with error bars (in gray) and the instrumental record, a red line. Hope this helps.




BTW, the famous "hide the decline" and "trick" to which Mann was referring had to do with the fact that the tree ring proxies in the last few decades did not go along with the climate. They were showing less grow with greater warming, instead of the expected greater growth. Then the "trick" or technique he used was to splice the instrumental data onto the proxy data and "hide" the decline in the proxy data, allowing the instrumental data to be reflected in recent decades. See http://www.skepticalscience.com/Mike...he-decline.htm

I suspect this is due to plants doing better in a warmer world....up to a point, then slowing & declining in growth. It has been found that plants (and people) do worse in a warming world mostly from the increasing diurnal minimum temps (night temps) increasing faster than the diurnal maximum temps. Plants (also people) need those cooler night temps to recouperate from the stresses of the higher daytime temps, while the daytime warming trend has so far been positive for plant growth and projected to be so up to a point -- but now the night warming harm and day warming help are sort of cancelling each other out (see Welch below on the effect of this on rice paddy). They also attribute the very high number deaths (30,000+) in Europe 2003 more to the hot and humid nights than to the blistering days.

The faster increasing warming temps at night over increasing temps during the days is a signature of the enhancing GH effect and human contributions to the warming and point to the warming being due to the GH effect and not other factors.
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Welch, J., J. R. Vincent, M. Auffhammer, P. F. Moya, A. Dobermann, and D. Dawe. 2010. “Rice Yields in Tropical/Subtropical Asia Exhibit Large but Opposing Sensitivities to Minimum and Maximum Temperatures.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 107(33): 14562-14567. http://www.pnas.org/content/107/33/14562.full.pdf+html
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  #103  
Old Apr 28, '12, 6:30 am
vz71 vz71 is offline
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Default Re: Some Himalayan glaciers actually growing, scientists find

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Originally Posted by lynnvinc View Post
They have big error bars, that is true, but the upper end of those are still below today's temps.
It is still a problem.

In providing measurements that they cannot justify, they have provided a glimpse into an agenda.

Since they are claiming that accuracy, and cannot provide it, they are telling a falsehood.

Their credibility is gone.
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  #104  
Old Apr 28, '12, 6:36 am
vz71 vz71 is offline
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Default Re: Some Himalayan glaciers actually growing, scientists find

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Originally Posted by lynnvinc View Post
Here's an image of those proxies with error bars (in gray) and the instrumental record, a red line. Hope this helps.



So they are claiming to be accurate to within a tenth of a degree, using instumentation that does not provide that degree of accuracy, and the margin of error is over an entire degree?

Perhaps you should take a course in statistics. Then you could approach these numbers they are providing you with an understanding of what is and is not meaningful data.
You are being fed a load of bunk with these numbers.

I can take the same measurement data and show a gradual cooling, warming, or anything else I would like.
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  #105  
Old Apr 29, '12, 2:49 am
lynnvinc lynnvinc is offline
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Default Re: Some Himalayan glaciers actually growing, scientists find

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Originally Posted by vz71 View Post
So they are claiming to be accurate to within a tenth of a degree, using instumentation that does not provide that degree of accuracy, and the margin of error is over an entire degree?

Perhaps you should take a course in statistics. Then you could approach these numbers they are providing you with an understanding of what is and is not meaningful data.
You are being fed a load of bunk with these numbers.

I can take the same measurement data and show a gradual cooling, warming, or anything else I would like.
Well, I teach statistics and research methods, and even the method of using proxies (at least briefly and at a basic level).

Here is an interview with some scientists, including Mike Mann and Jim Hansen (both of whom I know personally), about climate sensitivity at the recent European Geosciences Union General Assembly: http://www.cntv.at/EGU2012/index.php...a=show&pid=197

I think if people here want to study climate science, perhaps thinking the scientists are wrong, then go to it. The blogosphere is not that place to get one's Ph.D.; I'd suggest going to a good university.

Otherwise, I'd suggest giving the climate scientists a modicum of respect and the benefit of the doubt. Especially since we are talking about a very serious problem that is harming and killing people and God's creation.
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