Ratzinger Gaining

[caroljm36]

From the National Review...

"RATZINGER GAINING [Michael Novak]
Now that the Italian press is reporting that Cardinal Josef Ratzinger, a hero of the Second Vatican Council (1962-65) and perhaps the closest intellectual associate of Pope John Paul II during the past 25 years, has already received the support of 40, maybe 50 cardinals, out of the 77 votes needed to be elected the next Pope, it is time for the American media to begin searching into the mind and heart of one so close to JPII. The Pope and Ratzinger, his closest cardinal friend, met for long discussion at least once a week, and often twice a week. Their theological and philosophical commitments to ideas like the primacy of love (glimpsed by the newborn child in the eyes of its mother, and felt in her touch, from the first moments of birth) and their bold visions for the future of the church united them, although they also loved to argue. Ratzinger's theological mind is encyclopedic, sweeping over nearly all of Christian history, and his interests--in bioethics, for instance, and in the analysis of history and culture-- draw him into excited engagement with contemporary problems. Recently, he published a short book called Without Roots on problems of nihilism and relativism in contemporary Europe, in dialogue with the President of the Italian Senate, the intelligent and probing Senator Marcello Pera. In the European and Italian context, Ratzinger is strongly pro-American on issues of religious liberty, and rather Tocquevillian in his interpretation of the American experience. He has expressed a certain disdain for efforts three decades ago to wed Catholicism to Marxist economics--he had seen too much of the latter close-up. He has a strong commitment to honest and frank ecumenism, based upon fraternal love but not upon false and mealy-mouthed pretendings of unity, where there is no unity.

It was Ratzinger who presided over the magnificently conducted funeral of John Paul II, the greatest funeral in the whole history of Rome along the axes both of history and of global reach. Many said: He looked every inch the Pope. Most surprising to many were the warmth and poetry of his sermon, evoking Pope John Paul II so realistically that at several points the vast crowds broke out in affectionate applause.

And, actually, my own sources in Rome now suggest that the number of cardinals supporting Ratzinger is closer to 55, leaving him at this early point some 22 short. Some caution should be exercised here, since in Rome counting of this sort is in most cases not actually by head, as is done in Washington by a Senate or House whip. In Rome, estimates are usually made by inference from known connections of cardinals and their close associates. However, some people in Rome (not necessarily with experience in American mayoralty elections) do know how to count votes. Those I know of in this camp are keeping their cards close to their chest. But they do not dispute the published numbers, except to hint that the true number is higher.

What no one disputes is that the numbers of the "progressives," once gathered around Cardinals Donneels of Belgium and Martini of Milan (now retired), have collapsed. There are not even enough of them to block the majority seeking a "Continuator" of John Paul II's legacy. The loyalty expressed by millions all around the world to John Paul II became so visible at the funeral that "Continuator" is now the motif. Whether that mantle falls on Ratzinger--or, perhaps, on someone younger and more vigorous--such as Angelo Scola of Venice, a truly brilliant and creative student of the much-beloved theologian Hans Urs von Balthasar, will soon enough become clear. There are four or five who could fill this place in the batting order, or take their turn next time around."

[OriginalJS]

Well, maybe. Americans sure love political races, don't we?

[Ani Ibi]

Originally Posted by caroljm36

What no one disputes is that the numbers of the "progressives," once gathered around Cardinals Donneels of Belgium and Martini of Milan (now retired), have collapsed. There are not even enough of them to block the majority seeking a "Continuator" of John Paul II's legacy.

[maggiec]

From what I know it would be wonderful if he were elected Pope but because God knows better than me I will pray that the Holy Spirit take charge.
We need all of us to pray now more than ever.

God bless,

Maggie C

[mercygate]

Don't scare me like this! You know the old saying: In a pope -- out a cardinal . . .

On the adopt-a-cardinal thread, I took Karl Lehmann -- talk about somebody who needs a little inspiration! I suppose it would be sinful to pray that if he can't shape up his act, he come down with something that wouldn't hurt him but that would keep him out of the conclave?

[kmktexas]

What no one disputes is that the numbers of the "progressives," once gathered around Cardinals Donneels of Belgium and Martini of Milan (now retired), have collapsed. There are not even enough of them to block the majority seeking a "Continuator" of John Paul II's legacy.

I don't have a great pic to put in like Ani but this part made me want to do the happy dance!!!!

The Cardinals have asked us not to speculate and I am trying VERY hard to comply. There are at least a dozen or more good, holy men that would make honorable Popes. Cardinal Ratzinger is certainly in that group.

I am a little less afraid now. Thanks.

[bones_IV]

[quote=mercygate] Don't scare me like this! You know the old saying: In a pope -- out a cardinal . . .

Precisely.

[patrickmichael]

Whatever happens, happens, but I love him greatly.

One of the good guys, you feel encouraged knowing he's "got your back."

[Illini]

Here's an interesting question:

Suppose Cardinal Ratzinger (or anyone else for that matter) wins a plurality but not a majority of the first ballot (say 50 votes; majority is 58). Would that be a momentum builder or would his candidacy fizzle? Perhaps new votes would need to be taken to determine whether supporters of candidates with few votes switch to Ratzinger or to someone else. Or is there majority that will pick anyone over Ratzinger but can't agree on an alternative?

Would it be different if one cardinal received a majority but not 2/3 early in the voting? His supporters could hold out for 30 votes, in the conclave's own "nuclear" option. But perhaps the Cardinals do not want to take that step and stick with the traditional 2/3 rule.

Here in America we don't have elections like this. The closest parallel would be what the political conventions used to be. Abraham Lincoln came out of nowhere to win the nomination over a number of well-known contenders after several ballots at the Republican convention of 1860. Candidates such as William Seward had strong support at the beginning but their votes later drifted away.


-Illini

[Swiss Guard]

[quote=bones_IV]

Originally Posted by mercygate

Don't scare me like this! You know the old saying: In a pope -- out a cardinal . . .

Precisely.

He who goes into the conclave a pope comes out a cardinal.

I wouldn't worry about the next pope, just trust the Holy Spirit to guide the Church.

Remember, if the Holy Spirit doesn't like the cardinals' choice, He will send them back soon to get it right. After all, that's how we got Pope John Paul II.

[dumspirospero]

Come on Ratzy...you can do it

[HagiaSophia]

Originally Posted by mercygate

On the adopt-a-cardinal thread, I took Karl Lehmann -- talk about somebody who needs a little inspiration! :

I'd never thought of your approach --- but it couldn't hurt!

[caroljm36]

Originally Posted by dumspirospero

Come on Ratzy...you can do it

Careful with those nicknames! The moderators changed the original title of my thread...whatever.

Actually the conclave appears to have a "deep bench" so I would be happy with several of the alternatives.

[mercygate]

We would go from the Panzer Kardinal to the Panzer Papa! I can handle that! But I'm out of the game. Let the Holy Spirit do his stuff, and may God have mercy on us all!

[chicago]

Originally Posted by Illini

Here's an interesting question:

Suppose Cardinal Ratzinger (or anyone else for that matter) wins a plurality but not a majority of the first ballot (say 50 votes; majority is 58). Would that be a momentum builder or would his candidacy fizzle? Perhaps new votes would need to be taken to determine whether supporters of candidates with few votes switch to Ratzinger or to someone else. Or is there majority that will pick anyone over Ratzinger but can't agree on an alternative?

Would it be different if one cardinal received a majority but not 2/3 early in the voting? His supporters could hold out for 30 votes, in the conclave's own "nuclear" option. But perhaps the Cardinals do not want to take that step and stick with the traditional 2/3 rule.

Here in America we don't have elections like this. The closest parallel would be what the political conventions used to be. Abraham Lincoln came out of nowhere to win the nomination over a number of well-known contenders after several ballots at the Republican convention of 1860. Candidates such as William Seward had strong support at the beginning but their votes later drifted away.


-Illini

I actually like this type of election. I think it shows the value of supermajorities and the need to reach consensus at times.

If the USCCB's manner of voting is any indicator, what would likely happen is that the lesser candidates would fall off after the first coupe of round of voting, while the clear leaders would eventually go head to head, gaining support from the fall off candidates' voters. This would continue until a winner is elected.

Now, in reality, that might not happen here. Particularly if it becomes clear that no one candidate can easily gain the supermajority of 2/3.

I suspect the the first round of voting will be a "let's see where we are" sort of thing. A signifigant amount of support might come forth for someone like Cardinal Ratzinger or another. Probably not enough to elect him, though. Other names will come forth and people will see where the election stands. The second day will be quite telling. Either someone like Ratzinger will take a clear advantage and be elected or his support will stymie. Another candidate might rise up out of that to be a clear challenger. Or there may be several candidates in the mix yet whose names linger. By day three we will either have a pope as the numbers sort themselves out or we will come to a situation where the cardinals recognize that no one of the leading candidates is likely to receive 2/3 of the vote. Following day three, there will be a designated period of rest, reflection, conversation, and prayer as the cardinals take a break from voting. When they return to vote, the ranking cardinal deacon is to offer a sermon. As they return to vote, either they will have worked something out whereby they can elect a leading candidate, the supporters of a leader will have dug in their heels to wait out a simple majority, or they will have chosen to go in a new direction - abandoning the leaders for a compromise candidate who might be able to recieve better support from 2/3. That's when we'll see if they can come up with a solution (and who it is will be telling in what likely happenned) or if this will be a protracted conclave of over a week to 10 days.