Karl Rove's early electoral map has Obama winning

[Marie5890]

http://www.businessinsider.com/karl-...ma-wins-2012-4

It's an eternity 'til November.

[_Abyssinia]

I think the mainstream media is a bit misleading with this because look what Rove says:

'all of the lean Obama states will most likely move to toss up or lean Romney' and 'just about all the lean Romney states are Republican safe states.'

How seriously should we believe that the Caroliana's are a toss up?

What polls is Karl Rove looking at? Because some have over-polled Democrats or Independents which skews the results. A lot of the polls also poll registered voters, and about 40% of registered voters do not vote in an election. Polls done on likely voters (which are more expensive to produce which is why so many polls are done on registered voters), are known to be more reliable, and most polls usually have 9 or 10% of undecided voters, and undecided voters almost always vote against the incumbent and vote for the insurgent.

I think it is bizarre to look at polls now to produce a fairly precise map when the general election has not really started and Mitt is coming out of a tough Republican primary.

[SamH]

It's Rove's way of getting out the vote.

[Marie5890]

More on Romney's paper-thin road on the electoral map...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...7pT_story.html

[7 Sorrows]

all i can say is that if obama wins a second term, we are toast.

[Roselle]

You have to think that Mitt Romney is in pretty good shape at this point. He just emerged from an overly bruising primary. Incumbent Presidents have advantages over contenders in that they are able to buy votes by handing out gifts to special interest groups. And yet despite all this, the Presidential race is essentially tied. With several months to go, and with out choosing a VP, I'm a bit surprised the race is as close as it is between Romney and Obama.

With that said, I was reading about the President's campaign pitch - Forward. It does not come across as being strong. It's not surprising that the President has low poll numbers, with people questioning Obama's abilities to lead in this poor and shifting economy.

"Obama's "Forward" Slogan is all Backwards"

http://www.foxbusiness.com/on-air/wi...-all-backwards

[Publisher]

Hopefully his model is correct.

[Alan55]

Originally Posted by Roselle

You have to think that Mitt Romney is in pretty good shape at this point. He just emerged from an overly bruising primary. Incumbent Presidents have advantages over contenders in that they are able to buy votes by handing out gifts to special interest groups. And yet despite all this, the Presidential race is essentially tied. With several months to go, and with out choosing a VP, I'm a bit surprised the race is as close as it is between Romney and Obama.

With that said, I was reading about the President's campaign pitch - Forward. It does not come across as being strong. It's not surprising that the President has low poll numbers, with people questioning Obama's abilities to lead in this poor and shifting economy.

"Obama's "Forward" Slogan is all Backwards"

http://www.foxbusiness.com/on-air/wi...-all-backwards

At this point, we've been hearing about Romney pretty much nonstop for months. The Obama campaign is just beginning to put out their message. Obama has lots of money to spend on ads, and I expect to hear lots more about the accomplishments of the Obama administration and the deficiencies of Romney and Republican policies. I expect Obama's numbers to improve, although national and world events could move the needle any which way.

[SamH]

Originally Posted by Publisher

Hopefully his model is correct.

Already out of date.


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ..._tracking_poll

[scipio337]

Originally Posted by Alan55

At this point, we've been hearing about Romney pretty much nonstop for months. The Obama campaign is just beginning to put out their message. Obama has lots of money to spend on ads, and I expect to hear lots more about the accomplishments of the Obama administration and the deficiencies of Romney and Republican policies. I expect Obama's numbers to improve, although national and world events could move the needle any which way.

Are you kidding me?

Obama has been campaigning (on the taxpayers dime) since August, at least. He's been "putting out his message" relentlessly.

Remember his necessary "bus tour" a last fall?

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_1...49-503544.html

[SamH]

Originally Posted by scipio337

Are you kidding me?

Obama has been campaigning (on the taxpayers dime) since August, at least. He's been "putting out his message" relentlessly.

Remember his necessary "bus tour" a last fall?

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_1...49-503544.html

Obama has campaigned and fund raised more than all presidents combined since Nixon.

As the Daily Mail reports, the book, The Rise of the President’s Permanent Campaign, written by Naval Academy political science professor Brendan J. Doherty, reveals that Obama visited the battleground states of Indiana, Florida, Colorado, Arizona in his first month in office. He is the only president in the last 35 years to visit every battleground state in his first year in office.

The book, which will be published in July, also notes that “Obama has already held more re-election fundraising events than every elected president since Richard Nixon combined.”

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Governm...anent-campaign