Hurricane Otis Nears Baja Peninsula

[geezerbob]

Otis has become a Pacific hurricane and is headed up the Baja coast. More prayers needed for those in its path.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9546436/

[geezerbob]

Latest NWS update on Hurricane Otis:

AT 5 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES... 215 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND ABOUT 205 MILES... 330 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.

OTIS HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A SHIP LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES...95 KM... WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND
OF 43 MPH...69 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

[jman507]

According to the forcast it looks like its going to hit the middle of Baja around 11 PM Sunday.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...619.shtml?3day

Tropical depression 19 is out there in the Atlantic, but it doesn't look like its going to be headed for land.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh.../010837.shtml?

[Ani Ibi]

Hi bob. I'll see if I can find a Mexican news report on this after I grab dinner.

[geezerbob]

Here's the latest from NOAA. Good news. It has weakened a lot and now is barely a tropical storm.

AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.3 WEST OR ABOUT 155 MILES... 245 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 125 MILES... 200 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.

OTIS HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OR VERY NEAR THE WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY OR MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 100 MB...29.53 INCHES.

[jman507]

Looks like Mexico has trouble from the other side. Tropical Storm Stan is hitting the Yucatan, and should gain stregnth in the Gulf, maybe to a Cat 1, by Wed.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...251.shtml?3day