2016 race ratings: Missouri, Arizona changed from "solid Republican" to "lean Republican"


#1

2016 race ratings: Missouri, Arizona changed from “solid Republican” to “lean Republican” abcn.ws/1Y0YT3b


#2

In other words, Hillary went from having <10% chance to an about 25% chance in those states.

Pretty much, the categories are these: Toss-up (Neither candidate has more than 60% chance of winning the state); Trend Republican/Democrat (stated party has about a 2-in-3 chance of winning); Lean (stated party has about a 3-in-4 chance of winning); Solid (stated party has above a 90% chance in winning - in other words, the only way stated party would lose is in a 1984-type landslide, if even then).

Of course, every news organization has their variances on this system. Some only have toss-up/lean/solid. In that case, “Lean” means anywhere between 60-90% chance of winning for the stated party; in other words, not close enough to call it a “toss-up”, but not definitive enough to call it out of reach, or “solid”.


#3

The thread title is not the title of the article.


#4

So if this holds, Hillary only needs 8 electoral votes out the 85 remaining in 6 tossup states.


#5

Do you mean that would be the case if she were to win Arizona and Missouri?


#6

No


#7

Then what do you mean?


#8

I’m not saying the analysis is wrong but here’s a different source in the Cook Report from May 25th and I’m not sure how different their way of analysing is but OP has Missouri as being a lean for Republicans, but the Cook Report has Missouri as “Likely R” and not under the lean category, though they have Arizona as a lean for Republicans. The Cook Report also has Indiana under the category of “Likely R” which is a state that Barack Obama won in 2008 but which Mitt Romney won in 2012

Cook Report: cookpolitical.com/presidential/charts/scorecard


#9

I mean even if I go ahead and give the red and pink states on the map, including AZ and MO, to Trump and the Democratic or leaning Democratic states to Hillary, that leaves 85 electoral votes up for grabs in 6 toss up states and Hillary Clinton only needs 8 of those 85 to become the first female POTUS. :shrug:


#10

Arg! Too soon. Honestly, there is no reason to shift Arizona and Missouri w/o moving Virginia to Lean Democrat, but that would put Clinton over the 270 mark, so we won’t do that (it’s got to be a horse race).

I wouldn’t sweat this. It’ll be a couple of months before we get reliable state polling to understand the lay of the land.


#11

While I’m sure many at ABC News want her to win, winning those states will not be that easy for a Democrat in a presidential election year.

That argument may have been better a few years ago, but her negatives are now very high and perhaps too high to be winning states like AZ or MO.

Trump has shown the potential in polling to win Pennsylvania and Connecticut.


#12

Except that she’s running against Trump and his negatives are really bad.

In Arizona, Trump had a small lead (2 points) on the PPP poll there last month. Given his negatives among Latinos, it makes sense that this isn’t solid Republican given that Trump is sinking in national polls.

In Missouri, there is no new data to indicate that Trump is losing ground and there is no significant minority population that Trump would lose ground with. There is no reason this shouldn’t be solid Republican at this point

UNLESS

you say that Trump is losing so much ground to Clinton that the whole nation is shifting to the Democrats. But, if you say that, Virginia should at least be Lean Democrat. But that pushes the electoral college over 270 for Clinton and then you lose the horse-race narrative.


#13

I don’t think ABC wants Hillary to win necessarily. Their just pointing out what is out there.

We knew Arizona was begin to lean when McCain said several weeks ago that he was in a tough race.

Connecticut and Pennsylvania will go to HRC.


#14

Trump could have a shot in PA:

realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/06/17/trumps_keys_to_the_keystone_state_130908.html


#15

Real Clear Politics has Arizona as a toss up and Missouri as ‘Leans Republican’.

In all, here’s Real Clear Politics break down by category:

Solid Democrat: 64 electorals
Likely Democrat: 93 electorals
Leans Democrat: 54 electorals
Toss-up: 163 electorals
Leans Republican: 81 electorals
Likely Republican: 14 electorals
Solid Republican: 69 electorals

Source (with map):

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html


#16

chero23;13981947]I don’t think ABC wants Hillary to win necessarily. Their just pointing out what is out there.

Most mainstream media journalists are liberal or lean left. Studies have confirmed that.

We knew Arizona was begin to lean when McCain said several weeks ago that he was in a tough race.

McCain is in a tough primary race.

Connecticut and Pennsylvania will go to HRC.

AZ, MO and UT will probably go to Trump. But he’s doing well in PA.


#17

=Crossbones;13981908]Except that she’s running against Trump and his negatives are really bad.

So are hers.

In Arizona, Trump had a small lead (2 points) on the PPP poll there last month. Given his negatives among Latinos, it makes sense that this isn’t solid Republican given that Trump is sinking in national polls.

Actually, Trump seems to be within striking distance in many. Some polls I suspect over-sample Democrats, but the real telling factor is that Clinton can’t clear 50 in many of them.

It’s hard to say Clinton’s lead could be that big with Trump consistently polling well in swing states.

you say that Trump is losing so much ground to Clinton that the whole nation is shifting to the Democrats. But, if you say that, Virginia should at least be Lean Democrat. But that pushes the electoral college over 270 for Clinton and then you lose the horse-race narrative.

The Democrats haven’t covered nearly as much ground as they’d like thanks in no small part to embracing the culture of death. Weren’t Arizona and Texas were supposed to be turning blue by now? And what’s with all of these GOP governors making solid runs in deep blue states?


#18

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