Dear Corki, Johnjoe39, Barbarian and Crow –
Yes, yes, yes, and yes! Forgive me my Irish ancestry but I’ve kissed the blarney stone with too much coffee this morning. It’s a day off for me and my husband…woo hoo. And my morning walk partner has had plumbing challenges this morning, so I’m back in my new drug of choice: CAF! The timer is set for 20 minutes, then I’m cleanin’ house. Honest. No really. K, here goes 20 minutes of my RCIA 2002 UCLA MA hard core policy wonk thoughts
- Ratty data: yah, the Guttmacher data is so so. In my not so humble opinion, most data is at best, so so. The bigger the populations studied, the greater the probability of inherent “challanges.” Bear with me now, here comes the math:
All data analysts are not created equal. There is a key difference between econometricians and statisticians. The latter assume the data is basically good. The former (including me) assume the data was “collected by the village idiot.” That was in the foreword of one of my econometrics textbooks, long forgotten but authored by a Kennedy (no relation to the famous families.) Sooooo… the crummy data is not a reason to do NO analysis, it is a reason to let the econometricians go at it.
This is my predjudice.
In the original LA Times analysis of the GI report’s findings on Tuesday, then DID talk about RU-486 and I swear they gave a number for that. I DO believe that Guttmacher’s (or CDC’s) data collection forms have been modified to cull info on what they call “medical abortions.” Don’t get me started on what I’d call it. But the online version doesn’t mention it. Does anybody out there have a hard copy of Tuesday’s Times?
Also in the LA Times article (TRULY, I am not fan, but my husband subsribes and likes to read it daily) they noted a correlation between reduced abortion rates (yah, yah, it’s not the raw numbers, it’s the rates…but to explain why that can be lived with is beyond the scale of this 20 minute post) there is a lower abortion rate iin states where abortions are easier to get, like Oregon.
My new pal, a really smart CAF poster and I had a juicy, fun talk about my hypothesis that there is a link between STRONGER CATHOLICISM and reduced abortion rates that might be able to be substantiated by the Guttmacher data…
I am so sorry if this sounds elitist or heady or not prayerful. Trust me, I pray the rosary EVERY DAY and am a hard core anti-abortion and pro-life warrior. And like my Indiana aunt likes to say about Michelle Obama, I have been educated beyond my intelligence!!! Dunno if its true for MO, but it is for ME.
So any data geeks wanna help me see if there is a link between a state’s “Degree of Catholicism” and the abortion rate?
How can we measure “Degree of Catholicism” in a way that makes sense?
Is there any ranking of states like this? For example, I’d put OH, PA, IN, IL, (oh, those Chicago Catholics! God bless them! Smart and smarter: Bernadin’s Seamless Garment tortures my single issue soul!) CO and NM on my Highly Catholic states list, based on anti-abortionosity of their bishops, percentage of Catholics per capita, low Gini coefficient, zero/one for Are they in the 30 states with tighter counselling and reuirements that prospective mothers see a amnio photo) but I am a newbie Catholic and new to CAF.
Is this interesting to anybody else but me and my pal in Oregon? Does anybody do this kind of analysis but Guttmacker and Joseph Wright’s crew at Notre Dame? Is John Jay active in this arena?
Sorry but the timer just went off. Gotta go clean the house. Sorry for the brain dump!?!?!
Totus tuus and love to you all. I dedicated my rosary this morning to CAF…and the 50 million, as usual. Sigh.