America's heartland sees little need for a political insurrection

Well, when you look at history, the first term elections for most presidents showed a loss of seats for the president’s party in Congress. This happened whether the president’s party was in the majority or not. So, it would not be particularly surprising nor particularly noteworthy if the Democrats lost seats in November.

Anyone saying otherwise is no historian.

And the spinning begins…

Right on target.

This is especially true when they fail to see the difference between an average first mid-term election for the president’s party (a net loss 17 House seats, 1 Senate seat) and the tsunami that is about to wash away Team Hope and Change (a net loss of 40+ House seats, 7+ Senate seats).

Just tell me where my post is inaccurate. I’ve been saying this same thing for the past nine months. But the folks here love to post polls and crow about the latest tea leaf reading.

You may be accurate, I’m not going to argue that.

But I think there will be a difference this time in the average number of seats that are lost. If it was a typical election cycle where the number of seats that are lost is similar to past elections then you may be correct. But I don’t think that’s going to be the case, I think democrats and incumbents are going to lose, and lose big.

No polls or tea leaves required. If you want solid indicators of a political tsunami, look no further than the:

  1. high unemployment rate.
  2. higher savings rate and the liquidation of personal debt.
  3. schizophrenic markets.
  4. sour mood of the electorate.
  5. Republican advantage in enthusiasm.
  6. number of Democratic seats in Republican leaning districts.
  7. failure of the Democratic majority to pass routine “emergency spending” measures.
  8. number of quality Republican challengers.
  9. number of Democratic challengers and incumbents shunning the President.
  10. perception that the President is snake bitten and that he is unable to capitalize on recent events.

Just to name a few…
Hardly, the ingredients for a historical first mid-term election. More like a witches’ brew.

We post poolls because the loss is going to be far in excess of what the average mid-term loss is. But I hope the democrats chalk their loss up to being just the normal attrition of mid-terms. As long as they continue doing what there are doing the losses will continue unabated.

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