Arctic to be 'ice-free in summer'

The Arctic Ocean could be largely ice-free and open to shipping during the summer in as little as ten years’ time, a top polar specialist has said. “It’s like man is taking the lid off the northern part of the planet,” said Professor Peter Wadhams, from the University of Cambridge. Professor Wadhams has been studying the Arctic ice since the 1960s. He was speaking in central London at the launch of the findings of the Catlin Arctic Survey. The expedition trekked across 435km of ice earlier this year. Led by explorer Pen Hadow, the team’s measurements found that the ice-floes were on average 1.8m thick - typical of so-called “first year” ice formed during the past winter and most vulnerable to melting.

Read more, and video here: news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8307272.stm

innovations-report.com/html/reports/earth_sciences/report-48152.html

Arctic Ocean Could Be Ice-Free in Summer Within 100 Years

The report is the result of week-long meeting of an interdisciplinary team of scientists that examined how the Arctic environment and climate interact and how that system would respond as global temperatures rise. It was organized by the National Science Foundation’s Arctic System Science Committee, which is chaired by Jonathan T. Overpeck of the University of Arizona. The report by Overpeck, who also chaired the meeting, and 20 colleagues from the United States and Canada is published 23 August in Eos, the weekly newspaper of the American Geophysical Union.

Yeah, and we’re all going to be water-skiing at the North Pole, right over Santa’s sunken workshop :rolleyes:

DaveBj

It looks as though the Polar Bear’s time in the wild may be coming to an end, and with it, the diminutive, but less dramatic and therefore more obscure Arctic Fox. The science regarding the climatic changes in the Arctic are specific and irrefutable. How one inerprets this data is the subjective part of the equation…but the objective evidence is clear: the Polar caps are melting.

wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/09/jaxa_amsre_thumbnail.png Sea Ice

Three crewmembers of the Skate (SSN-578) checking the ice on deck while above the Arctic Circle in 1959.

and

Skate (SSN-578), surfaced at the North Pole, 17 March 1959.

and

Seadragon (SSN-584), foreground, and her sister Skate (SSN-578) during a rendezvous at the North Pole in August 1962. Note the men on the ice beyond the submarines.

Folks, I didn’t realize this was the Catlin Arctic Survey . I wouldn’t give much credence to that study. It was basically a publicity stunt, not a scientific study. And they had to cut it short because they were frozen in.

More on the “study” here:
wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/15/top-ten-reasons-why-i-think-catlin-arctic-ice-survey-data-cant-be-trusted/

If the objective evidence is as clear as you think then how do you explain this quote from a white paper on what’s going on in Antarctica:

“Climate models generally predict amplified warming in polar regions,” which would suggest that Antarctic temperatures should have warmed more than this in response to increases in greenhouse gases. However, “Although previous reports suggest slight recent continental warming,” they declare that “our spatial analysis of Antarctic meteorological data” demonstrated “a net cooling over the entire Antarctic continent between 1966 and 2000, particularly during summer and autumn,” when ice melt would be most likely to occur.

Their own conclusion is rather understated. I guess the challenge is to continue to believe in the theory despite the evidence.

“Continental Antarctic cooling, especially the seasonality of cooling, poses challenges to models of climate and ecosystem change.”

icecap.us/images/uploads/antarctica_white_paper_final.pdf

Ender

Wow - look at that a melted North pole. Wonder if those guys know their prediction happened 45 years ago? Do they have any predictions for the winner of Superbowl 2?

A hundred years from now. Hmmmm. Taking no chances, are they?

Many think it highly probable that the arctic was ice-free in the summertime back in the Middle Ages, giving rise to the belief in the possibility of a Northwest Passage, for which explorers hunted in vain. Of course, the earth had cooled considerably in the meantime, so it was never found.

Uh oh. Does this mean all the polar bears in zoos around the temperate and tropical zones in the world are actually dead?

I did hear the other night on TV that the polar bear population is actually on the increase. So maybe they really can walk on dirt and live, after all.

Christian Science Monitor, May 3rd, 2007 – Despite global warming, an ongoing study says polar bear populations are rising in the country’s eastern Arctic region.
Science Daily May 10th, 2008 – Federal Polar Bear Research Critically Flawed, Forecasting Expert Asserts
National Post March 6th, 2007 – Polar bear numbers up, but rescue continues
WUWT May 9th 2009 – The “precarious state of the U.S. polar bear population”
Dr. Mitchell Taylor, a biologist with Nunavut Territorial government in Canada wrote this letter (PDF) on April 6th, 2006 to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service:
Some excerpts:
At present, the polar bear is one of the best managed of the large arctic mammals. If all the arctic nations continue to abide by the terms and intent of the Polar Bear Agreement, the future of polar bears is secure.

Polar bears are believed to have evolved from grizzly bears during the Pleistocene era some 200-250,000 years ago (Amstrup 2003). Polar bears were well developed as a separate species by the Eemian interglacial approximately 125,000 years ago. This period was characterized by temperature fluctuations caused by entirely natural events on the same order as those predicted by contemporary climate change models. Polar bears obviously adapted to the changing environment, as evidenced by their presence today. That simple fact is well known and part of the information contained in the reference material cited throughout the petition, yet it is never mentioned. This fact alone is sufficient grounds to reject the petition. Clearly polar bears can adapt to climate change. They have evolved and persisted for thousands of years in a period characterized by fluctuating climate. No rational person could review this information and conclude that climate change pre-destined polar bears to extinction.

The petition admits that there is only evidence for deleterious effects from climate change for one polar bear population (Western Hudson Bay [WH]) at the southernmost extreme of polar bear range (Fig. 1). The petition argues that the likelihood of change in other areas is reason enough to find that polar bears should be regarded as a species at risk of imminent extinction. I hope the review considers the precedent set by accepting this argument. Climate change will affect all species to some extent, including humans. If the likelihood of change is regarded as sufficient cause to designate a species or population as “threatened,” then all species around the world are “threatened.”
Some data. With hunting no longer allowed, bear populations have increased 4-5 times:
wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/09/polar-bear-numbers.jpg?w=299&h=145
http://www.uwyo.edu/polarbear/polar_bear_distribution.jpg Fig. 1. Circumpolar distribution of polar bear populations. The Western Hudson Bay population (WH), for which data on negative impacts of climate change exist, is highlighted. Polar bears of WH comprise approximately 4% of the world total population polar bears.

Well first I went to look for some info from the national snow and ice data center…cause they are one of the best places to go when looking for info on this sort of stuff.

nsidc.org/sotc/sea_ice.html

**And about that submarine. Jeepers, Freezer, even John Daly had to admit that picture was mislabelled:

The article was meant to indicate that the North Pole had been ice free, even in spring, during the mid-20th century. However, we are not disputing this point here - rather, we examine whether the photograph was indeed of the USS Skate at the North Pole on the 17th March 1959 - i.e. whether the data had been honestly and correctly quoted.

There are two easily-accessible references, which describe the surfacing of the USS Skate at the North Pole on the 17th March 1959 (the first submarine to do so): (from this link,

Calvert, J.F., 1959. Up through the ice of the North Pole, The National Geographic Magazine, Vol. CXVI, No. 1, July 1959, pp. 1-41.

Calvert, J., 1996. Surface at The Pole, Bluejacket Books (originally printed by McGraw-Hill, 1960).

and which say:

That the sun was still below the horizon and it was quite dark (it did not appear until 19 March):
The sun was still just below the horizon and a very heavy overcast made for late twilight darkness

That the weather was terrible:
the wind … was roaring around us at about 30 knots, blowing the snow until one could see no more than a quarter of a mile

The swirling snow loomed around the red torches

in the 26-below-zero cold… The wind blew snow into our noses and mouths, and it was difficult to talk or even breathe

The wind and bitter cold made it physically difficult to hold and read the prayer book

the gale was increasing and the temperature dropping

Both sides of the lead were piled with the heaviest and ruggedest hummocks I had yet seen in the Arctic. It was a wild and forbidding scene

Do these descriptions match the picture above? Of course not. After a long argument, John Daly was eventually persuaded to remove the picture from his web site. It turned out that he had absolutely no evidence to prove that the picture was of the Skate at the North Pole on the 17th March 1959 - it wasn’t - it was just a convenient photo, chosen to ‘prove’ the point he was trying to make. His ‘data’ was just plain wrong.** scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2009/04/open_thread_25.php#comment-1592941

Oh and here is the NSIDC faqs on sea ice. nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/faq.html

As for Antartic cooling actually if you look at the past 50 years it has been warming… realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/01/state-of-antarctica-red-or-blue/

Now from what I have read it is likely we are coming to an sea ice free artic in the summer fairly soon in the future. Exactly when we donlt know of course though. And if the climate keeps warming we may eventually see a year round sea ice free artic…though probably not in any of our life times.

“Irrefutable” Does this mean you can’t dare question it ??? Well I for one question it. All this scam is about is getting more taxes out of us by guilt. When it was extremely hot they screamed “global warming” Now temps are well below normal and now its “climate change” I’m so tired of being lied to. Someday our paychecks are not going to be given to us but signed over to the gov’t.

I wouldn’t go that far.
It’s also not very good to throw absolutes into regards to scientific projections such as these. I don’t see anything irrefutable. Caution maybe. But not confirmation. Not to mention it’s ridiculous to confirm something that hasn’t happened yet.

Remember 4 years ago when they said that Hurricanes would keep increasing every year, and we’d have like One Hundred or something Last year? And in 2009 right now we’ve had a very very ho-hum Hurricane season.
Also a lot of the "Polar Bear Plight " stuff is exploited by hippie environmentalists who care more about them than human babies, purport lots of falsehoods through politicized pictures that have no scientific backing. "the polar bears are eating each other! " "hmm…must be global warming! " when in fact they’ve always have had cannibalistic tendencies in males. But when they’re confronted, they always have no answer to the recent studies that Polar Bear populations are healthy and have increased in other parts of the arctic.

U.S. Senate Report Debunks Polar Bear Extinction Fears

Report Released on January 30, 2008

U.S. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee

The U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service estimates that the polar bear population is currently at 20,000 to 25,000 bears, up from as low as 5,000-10,000 bears in the 1950s and 1960s.

epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Facts&ContentRecord_id=cb2faa9c-802a-23ad-4bcc-29bb94ceb993&IsPrint=true

Steven C. Amstrup
USGS circa 2002

The continuing growth in polar bear numbers, the continuing trend in proportion of dens on land, and perhaps changing freeze-up conditions in the last decade all may be influencing the distribution of denning efforts. The apparent increase in numbers of bears denning on land and the increased land area used for denning corroborates estimates, reported earlier, that suggested a continued increase in total numbers of polar bears throughout the study period. The distribution of maternal denning continues to be a fertile area for future research…

How can something (the evidence based on data) be subjective and objective at the same time? I don’t follow.

Anyway the more I see about this Global warming alarmism, the more skeptical I get. Especially whenever I read about the history of science. More and more I’m convinced that the Man Made Global Warming people (The Al Gores) are betting on the wrong horse.
They seem to be hedging all their bets on models that could be very well incorrect and/or based on a model that assumes the wrong amount of time scales,it could be very well an over-focus on one portion of those fluctuations/and or trending.

I can very well see this Global Warming movement being a footnote in History books in the future.

I think Al Gore is very annoying, and a hypocrite with his alarmist SOB stories for the Polar Bears. If the Polar Bears can’t adapt, they can’t adapt. And I don’t believe they’re going extinct because I think they can adapt.

The subjective aspect refers to cause.

If the cause is subjective, so is the solution to the fix.

Didn’t they say that last year?

Yes.

The summer of 2009 was supposed to be the first year the Artic melted (unless you see the 1964 pictures of the North Pole). My understanding is 2009 was not even close to a record year for least ice coverage and but the “refreeze” is going much faster than usual.

Underwater volcanoes in the Arctic Ocean:

sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080625140649.htm

Peace,
Ed

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