As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S

I know this was discussed in another thread before, but this is a new article on the subject from the Wall Street Journal dated 12/29/08:

As if Things Weren’t Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.

In Moscow, Igor Panarin’s Forecasts Are All the Rage; America ‘Disintegrates’ in 2010


MOSCOW – For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument – that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. – very seriously. Now he’s found an eager audience: Russian state media.

In recent weeks, he’s been interviewed as much as twice a day about his predictions. “It’s a record,” says Prof. Panarin. “But I think the attention is going to grow even stronger.”

Prof. Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations.

But it’s his bleak forecast for the U.S. that is music to the ears of the Kremlin, which in recent years has blamed Washington for everything from instability in the Middle East to the global financial crisis. Mr. Panarin’s views also fit neatly with the Kremlin’s narrative that Russia is returning to its rightful place on the world stage after the weakness of the 1990s, when many feared that the country would go economically and politically bankrupt and break into separate territories. …

For entire article:

Panarin’s off by about 30-50 years. 2010 is simply too soon. The Fall is inevitable, however. No nation stays on top forever.

I read the article and examined the map. Pandarin doesn’t understand America. He lacks sociological insight. Why would Texas succumb to Mexico’s rule, or the Deep South, for that matter? South Florida is largely Cuban, and wouldn’t have anything to do with Mexico. Canadian rule in the U.S.? Forget it. China governing California within one year??? Ha. It still doesn’t even have a navy or air force capable of deploying its light-infantry-heavy-army across the ocean. Pandie is hyping this for maximum personal profit. Yeah…the U.S. *will *dissolve someday, as all nations do. It just won’t happen in accordance with the ‘Pandarin Prophecy’. In the meantime, Pandie will line his pockets with fees from wishfully-thinking, Russian fools.

I looked at the map and had a similar reaction. While I have read other opinions that the U.S. will split up and some areas may secede and form their own little unions, I too think it is unlikely that territory will be taken by other nations (especially China).

when many feared that the country would go economically and politically bankrupt and break into separate territories. …

It did go economically and politically bankrupt. And it did break into separate territories.

I thought the Soviets were supposed to bury us, now we’re going to split up on our own?


Meh, we had a good run.

Exactly they’ve been say our down fall before I was born. They’re like the rest of the world their jealous of us and want to be us but they never will be like us.

I love America yeah that’s right I said it I’m proud to be an American and if people don’t like it that’s their problem.

God Bless America!

I don’t think he understands the U.S. very well for a number of reasons. Not the least of them being that he has divided the country by state lines, many of which do not reflect cultural or geographical affinities and contiguities. But his scenario could make a cracking good tv movie if done well. Maybe that’s where he’s headed with this.

Perhaps the biggest flaw is what seems to be his assumption that a nation of 300 million, with a growing population and the world’s most complete economy will fly to pieces while his country of 150 million (many of whom are far less assimilated to being “Russians” than recent immigrants here are to being “Americans”) with a population about to implode, and an economy based on the sale of resources to foreigners, will become more powerful on the world stage.

I think he’s whistling in the dark. If any part of the world is likely to become “Sinified” it is the Russian Far East, in which Chinese operators presently just go in and extract resources without so much as a by-your-leave from Moscow, and in which Moscow has no idea at all how many Chinese nationals reside.

Excellent point. You’re right. Russia needs to be more worried about China right now than the U.S., despite Walmart’s incipient growth.

Not that I think the United States will break up but Panarin mentions these nations will become part of foreign powers or fall under the influence of foreign powers. If the United States did break up, the new unions to form afterward might be in a weakened state and might be influenced, though not totally controlled, by foreign nations. For awhile, anyways. And that influence could be economic and political, rather than strictly military. In that case, his map does make a little more sense, even if his prediction is highly unlikely to occur.

Yes, God bless America!

“The low-hanging fruit, i.e. idiots whose parents paid for prep school, Yale and then the Harvard MBA, was there for the taking. These people who were (often) truly not worthy of the education they received (or supposedly received) rose to the top of companies such as AIG, Bear Stearns and Lehman Bros. and all levels of our government.

“All of this behavior supporting the Aristocracy only ended up making it easier for me to find people stupid enough to take the other side of my trades. God bless America.”

This situation similar to what Richard Lynn said in a far right political magazine. (very, very politically incorrect as a warning for those who actually click that link as it mentions other unpleasant topics.) He foresees racial balkanization.

I can sort of understand how Panarin (if he isn’t just puffing for a TV movie to come out later) could think of the U.S. as breaking up. The U.S., after all, does not have, and has never really had the kind of notion of “Rodina” (“Motherland”) that ethnic Russians seem to have. To them, it is a matter of blood, Orthodoxy and the soil. The U.S. is more conceptual; “the Rule of Law”, “the Constitution”, “freedom”. But it’s more than that. It’s also “the economy, stupid”. How incredibly stupid would people in the East have to be to cut themselves off from the breadbaskets of the Midwest and the Great Plains; the oil of the Gulf and the Rockies and the oranges from California, Florida and the Rio Grande Valley? And how eager would people in the Southern Plains really be to cut themselves off from the industrial products of the upper Midwest and the East in order to link up with distant Canada?

I’ll grant that some Mexicans dream of “Aztlan”, sort of like some Middle Easterners dream of a “Caliphate” they successfully resist actually forming. But as near as I can tell, Hispanics become “Americans” pretty quickly and, indeed, much of “lily white America” has adopted a lot of Mexican things. There is a lot less difference between a second-generation Hispanic and a “native” Ozarkian than there is between, say, a Muscovite and a Chechen.

But despite the fact that Southerners don’t quite like “Yankees” and New Yorkers like to think the utterly alien “Great American Desert” starts at Jersey City, everybody in the U.S. wants the oil and gas to continue to flow through the pipelines, the fresh tomatoes and oranges in the store in January and the auto parts that are made all over the U.S. on the shelves at O’Reilley’s and, yes, even the Chinese goods that come all the way from L.A. on trains to Walmart’s warehouses in Bentonville, Arkansas, thence to everywhere, and the German cars that come from Alabama.

A splitup just plain isn’t going to happen. The U.S. as a nation simply makes too much sense, and despite the fact that we find it entertaining to dislike each other regionally, we all know it does.

As long as the U.S.A stand in partitioning the land of Israel into a two state apartheid (giving in to Islamic pressures)…its downfall will be quick.

Yes I agree GOD BLESS AMERICA, but America don’t poke the Apple of God’s Eye—that’s way to sensitive. May lead to His Wrath.

He send the Perfect Storm during the signing of the Oslo Accord at the doorstep of Bush Sr. (author of the treaty)in Maryland remember, destroying his House.

I think God was saying “Mess with My House, you bet I’ll surely mess with yours”

Most nations don’t last forever. The United States has made quite a name for itself. As a nation, we have a lot to be proud of. Nothing is perfect this side of heaven though- and nothing in this life will last forever either. We’re bound to run into something sooner or later that wipes us out, or at least cuts us down several notches. I’m sure, if we’re alive to go through it, it will be a very difficult time- but God is in charge, and we must trust in His plans. That being said, I love my country very much, and I will be a proud patriot to the very end.

The Russians would love to see our downfall. This is just another propaganda piece that helps them feel better about themselves. I can’t believe anyone would take this seriously. Anyone who gives this Russian’s ideas more than a humorous glance really needs a reality check. Russia has a ton of problems, but instead of adressing them they spend time dreaming about the demise of the US. Or finding ways to thwart the US.

Geez when are we going to have enough pride in our own country/culture to tell this kind of thinking where it can go. Do you sincerely believe that the Russian people ever get an opportunity to read anything positive about the US from their biased government controlled media?

We’ve had some major problem (Depression which was way worse than this economic downturn, civil war, segregation). These didn’t kill us. Where in the world can people of different ethinic backgrounds come together and be expected to live civilly? As said by Mark Twain, “Reports of my demise have been greatly exaggerated.”

Now there is a great possibility that at some point we won’t be as powerful in the world has we have been. That has happened to all world powers at some point. But the Greeks still live in Greece and the English still live in England. When that happens the Americans will still live in America.

I wish there is someway I could make a bet with you on this downfall. I think the odds for it are greater than you think. I do not think it would be even money, but I think some sort of “swap” would be ideal. I would pay about 0.1%-0.3% premium (I think those prices are “fair” for me) per year, and if such a situation would happen, I get 100%.

I wonder if there is an actual market I could make these type of bets.

United States downfall by 2010?

No, 2030. 2010 does not seem likely. I would not bet on that proposition.

Based on your bio I can see why you feel this way.

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