Too many variables still in play to say “Game Over” at this stage in the game. The team captains haven’t even started choosing up sides yet.
Who does each choose for a VP? If Hillary tries to cozen the Bernie Base by going further left, like Elizabeth Warren, it will hurt her with centrists (not to mention Native Americans). A two-woman ticket will probably, to be honest, hurt her with male voters. Sanders has been attacking the HUD chief that’s been touted to secure her position with Hispanics for his questionable financial decisions. It’s anyone’s guess whom Trump will pick, could be pluses or minuses there as well. I would guess he will wait until the last minute, after Hillary has announced, and choose a candidate to trump hers.
Does she make a deal with Sanders to run as her VP? Might satisfy his supporters, a little, but will drive her election so far left (how do you get a unified platform between the two of them? Hoew do you keep Bernie on Hillary’s message?) as to trigger an almost certain loss with the electorate.
Does Bernie stay in until the Democratic Convention, hoping to profit from the results of the FBI investigation of Hillary? Does she have to go further deep left as a concession to get his support, which will hurt her, again, with centrists?
Will Bernie’s support mob be satisfied with any concessions Hillary makes, or do they disrupt the convention (and probably riot outside) when Hillary is coronated as the party’s nominee? The riots that are coming at the Republican committee will probably help Trump, who will be seen as an alternative to chaos by many voters. Hillary won’t be helped by the mobs outside her convention, however.
**How many of Bernie’s fans elect to sit out the election? ** How many #NoTrump Republicans sit out the election? Who has the more enthusiastic fan base? The mood on most college campuses right now is so solidly pro-Bernie that if someone expresses support for Hillary, they’re shamed as scum. How quickly can that be turned around if Bernie drops out?
What kind of October Surprise / Oppo Research does each side have in readiness that we haven’t heard yet?
Will Bernie run as a Third Party candidate, bleeding off progressive support for Hillary? If that happens, Game Over for Hillary - I don’t think she will have any chance to win. (Nor will Bernie.) Sanders has said he will not run as an independent, but that was long before he began saying that Hillary was “not qualified” to be president of the U.S. Will Bernie be satisfied with whatever (easily repudiated) concessions Hillary makes, or does he have enough ego in the game that he elect to stay in (and the more personal the attacks Hillary makes as the convention grows near, the more likely that scenario becomes.) Bernie is a hard guy to read. He’s an ideologue on the issues he supports, but I don’t know if his personal ego - the sense that he is destined and rightly should be president - is as strong as it is in Hillary and in Trump.
Does Hillary get indicted? How does the FBI and Director Comey react if Obama elects to protect her and tells Loretta Lynch (who was appointed to the DOJ by Bill Clinton) to decline prosecution? The optics won’t be good either way (unless the FBI investigation exonerates her, which is unlikely). If Comey pushes hard for the indictment, and fails, he won’t have a very enjoyable career under President Hillary Clinton, so he has nothing to lose by publically resigning over the incident - which again, harms Hillary. Does the FBI, and the Republican congressmen who are privy to the indictment, begin leaking dmaning information like crazy to the media?
**Can Trump pivot to a more centrist message, or does he continue to speak without thinking and go off track? **Can he pull some of the minority (especially black) voters by messaging how continued illegal immigration hurts low-income black voters disproportionately?
And again,** who can invoke the greater enthusiasm in their respective bases?**