At the starting gate: Clinton leads Trump by double-digits


#1

From CNN today:

Indianapolis (CNN)As Donald Trump captures the mantle of presumptive Republican nominee, a new poll finds he begins his general election campaign well behind Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton.

The new CNN/ORC Poll, completed ahead of Trump’s victory last night, found Clinton leads 54% to 41%, a 13-point edge over the New York businessman, her largest lead since last July.

Clinton is also more trusted than Trump on many issues voters rank as critically important, with one big exception. By a 50% to 45% margin, voters say Trump would do a better job handling the economy than Clinton would.

cnn.com/2016/05/04/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-poll-general-election/


#2

No surprise.


#3

Looks like this agrees with Rasmussen on Trump’s 41%


#4

No surprised at that.


#5

Surprise, surprise, surprise.

Some people are getting what they wanted; I hope they want what we get.


#6

People have warned of this for months–few listened.


#7

No surprise and I won’t be surprised if the Electoral College is an even bigger landslide in favor of Clinton.

nytimes.com/interactive/2016/05/04/upshot/electoral-map-trump-clinton.html?_r=0

centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-only-thing-that-matters/

electiongraphs.com/2016ec/


#8

Carter led Reagan by much more, and much later in the year, in 1980. Jus’ sayin’.


#9

True, but those numbers do not include the bump Hillary will get if she chooses Sanders as her running mate–all of the Bernie voters will flock to the polls. I have zero doubt she will pick Sanders.


#10

Didn’t I see another poll that said Trump pulled ahead of Clinton for the first time? :shrug:

EDIT: Here it is: nypost.com/2016/05/02/trump-has-pulled-ahead-of-clinton-in-latest-poll/

It’s from the New York Post, though.


#11

At this moment, Hillary leads. I think Trump is capable of finally exposing Hillary. He is not afraid of being PC. Not worrying about polls at this time. A lot can happen between now and November.


#12

We can only hope the fat lady is just warming up. It ain’t over til she sings.


#13

Which people? Does Trump want to begin as an underdog and triumph like the tortoise against the hare?

Some people wanted Jeb Bush to be the Republican candidate.

The majority of California GOP money donated in this cycle went to three candidates and the political action committees supporting them: $15.1 million for Bush, $11.8 million for Rubio, and $9.5 million for former Hewlett-Packard chief and unsuccessful 2010 Senate candidate Carly Fiorina.

The article is entitled:
“After wasting millions of dollars, California GOP donors close their checkbooks to presidential candidates”
Link:
latimes.com/politics/la-na-0424-california-gop-donors-20160423-story.html

Back when people in California were donating 15 million dollars to candidate Jeb Bush, did anybody think of betting $10,000 that Senator Cruz would select Carly Fiorina as his running mate?

Link:
Mitt Romney Offers Rick Perry $10,000 Bet: ABC News/Yahoo News Republican Debate
youtube.com/watch?v=0CPQMDS_XO0


#14

Now that their primary fun (some would say circus) is over, yes I’d say that’s about the only place for Trump fans to hang their caps on now. However rare a place that may be.

“Closing large polling gaps in the time remaining is rare but certainly not unprecedented. In 1980, Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan in many polls this time of year.”

nytimes.com/interactive/2016/05/04/upshot/electoral-map-trump-clinton.html?_r=0

Of course looking back 36 yrs doesn’t exactly factor in how the face of the American general election electorate in Presidential yrs has changed and that Reagan Democrats and others haven’t necessarily voted Democratic in yrs. Take a state like WV for instance. Trump is huge there as I understand it. I’m not being critical of WV. I have deep familial ties to the state. But they haven’t voted Democratic in 20 yrs and yet the Democrats still won the last 2 Presidential elections in 2008 and 2012. And even in 2000 won the popular vote nationwide.


#15

I’m talking about those who wanted Trump to get the GOP nod, those who would not listen to those of us that warned that a whole block of the party would not support him, indeed might vote DEM or sit home as a vote against him. Well, they got what they wanted. Now, like 2008, we’ll be left with a mess, but no real choice. :mad:


#16

Now, I will answer on behalf of candidate Trump:

“Tablefor9, I am not Senator McCain. If you wanted to vote for McCain, then you should have voted for him eight years ago. I am going to give a new direction to this economy and this country.”

Obama / McCain 3rd Debate, Part 2 - I’m Not President Bush
Link:
youtube.com/watch?v=tcaf-jvWYus


#17

Too many variables still in play to say “Game Over” at this stage in the game. The team captains haven’t even started choosing up sides yet.

Who does each choose for a VP? If Hillary tries to cozen the Bernie Base by going further left, like Elizabeth Warren, it will hurt her with centrists (not to mention Native Americans). A two-woman ticket will probably, to be honest, hurt her with male voters. Sanders has been attacking the HUD chief that’s been touted to secure her position with Hispanics for his questionable financial decisions. It’s anyone’s guess whom Trump will pick, could be pluses or minuses there as well. I would guess he will wait until the last minute, after Hillary has announced, and choose a candidate to trump hers.

Does she make a deal with Sanders to run as her VP? Might satisfy his supporters, a little, but will drive her election so far left (how do you get a unified platform between the two of them? Hoew do you keep Bernie on Hillary’s message?) as to trigger an almost certain loss with the electorate.

Does Bernie stay in until the Democratic Convention, hoping to profit from the results of the FBI investigation of Hillary? Does she have to go further deep left as a concession to get his support, which will hurt her, again, with centrists?

Will Bernie’s support mob be satisfied with any concessions Hillary makes, or do they disrupt the convention (and probably riot outside) when Hillary is coronated as the party’s nominee? The riots that are coming at the Republican committee will probably help Trump, who will be seen as an alternative to chaos by many voters. Hillary won’t be helped by the mobs outside her convention, however.

**How many of Bernie’s fans elect to sit out the election? ** How many #NoTrump Republicans sit out the election? Who has the more enthusiastic fan base? The mood on most college campuses right now is so solidly pro-Bernie that if someone expresses support for Hillary, they’re shamed as scum. How quickly can that be turned around if Bernie drops out?

What kind of October Surprise / Oppo Research does each side have in readiness that we haven’t heard yet?

Will Bernie run as a Third Party candidate, bleeding off progressive support for Hillary? If that happens, Game Over for Hillary - I don’t think she will have any chance to win. (Nor will Bernie.) Sanders has said he will not run as an independent, but that was long before he began saying that Hillary was “not qualified” to be president of the U.S. Will Bernie be satisfied with whatever (easily repudiated) concessions Hillary makes, or does he have enough ego in the game that he elect to stay in (and the more personal the attacks Hillary makes as the convention grows near, the more likely that scenario becomes.) Bernie is a hard guy to read. He’s an ideologue on the issues he supports, but I don’t know if his personal ego - the sense that he is destined and rightly should be president - is as strong as it is in Hillary and in Trump.

Does Hillary get indicted? How does the FBI and Director Comey react if Obama elects to protect her and tells Loretta Lynch (who was appointed to the DOJ by Bill Clinton) to decline prosecution? The optics won’t be good either way (unless the FBI investigation exonerates her, which is unlikely). If Comey pushes hard for the indictment, and fails, he won’t have a very enjoyable career under President Hillary Clinton, so he has nothing to lose by publically resigning over the incident - which again, harms Hillary. Does the FBI, and the Republican congressmen who are privy to the indictment, begin leaking dmaning information like crazy to the media?

**Can Trump pivot to a more centrist message, or does he continue to speak without thinking and go off track? **Can he pull some of the minority (especially black) voters by messaging how continued illegal immigration hurts low-income black voters disproportionately?

And again,** who can invoke the greater enthusiasm in their respective bases?**


#18

Very inciteful post.


#19

Yes, anything is possible.
What I fear is a major attack by ISIS in the USA prior to the November election.
Such might give the Donald an edge.


#20

Hillary ought to be able to turn a few of those red states blue. :wink:


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