Brexit: Leave 'very likely' won EU referendum due to illegal overspending


#1

Brexit: Leave ‘very likely’ won EU referendum due to illegal overspending

Analysis finds adverts reached ‘tens of millions of people’ in crucial days after spending limit breached – enough to change the outcome

It is “very likely” that the UK voted for Brexit because of illegal overspending by the Vote Leave campaign, an Oxford professor will tell the High Court.

An exhaustive analysis of the campaign’s digital strategy concludes it reached “tens of millions of people” in its last crucial days, after its spending limit had been breached – enough to change the outcome.

The evidence will be presented to the High Court on Friday, in a landmark case that will rule within weeks whether the referendum result should be declared “void” because the law was broken.

Professor Philip Howard, director of the Oxford Internet Institute, said: “My professional opinion is that it is very likely that the excessive spending by Vote Leave altered the result of the referendum.

“A swing of just 634,751 people would have been enough to secure victory for remain.

“Given the scale of the online advertising achieved with the excess spending, combined with conservative estimates on voter modelling, I estimate that Vote Leave converted the voting intentions of over 800,000 voters in the final days of the campaign as a result of the overspend.”

The conclusion is based on separate research which found that 20 – 30 per cent of people decided how to vote within a week of polling day, with half doing so on election day itself.


#2

Two things;

firstly this is another attempt by the elites to steal the election result away from those ignorant commoners.

secondly, it reduces democracy to advertising spending which if it were true, we might as well all give up on democracy now. Something that the elites wouldn’t mind at all


#3

Time to have a second vote.


#4

Time for Parliament to simply kill the whole thing entirely. It wasn’t a binding referendum, and I think a strong majority of voters now see it as a tragic blunder.


#5

England is demonstrating they do not understand democracy if they vote again. It’s actually scary how so many are trying to find ways to negate the first vote. Might as well have a monarchy again. How in the world does anyone in the UK really want to be part if the EU!? It’s a nightmare!


#6

It is a monarchy, and what’s more it is a country where parliamentary supremacy is written into the constitutIonal DNA. Even if Brexit had come through a parliamentary vote, the principle that no past Parliament can bind a future Parliament is also an explicit part of the 1688 Constitutional settlement. And this was a non binding referendum, an advisory vote. Parliament has never been bound by such things.


#7

It should stand they should split. End of story. I have no idea why people are so against it. If only people cared this much about things that matter!


#8

Most of their trading partners are in Europe. London is (or was) a global financial capital, like New York. I can see and sympathize with both sides of this issue, but I tend to see Brexit as the U.K. cutting off its nose to spite its face. Especially if the end result will be something like them participating in a customs union with no say in how its rules are implemented.


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