Brexit would trigger second Scottish referendum within three years, Alex Salmond warns


**Brexit would trigger second Scottish referendum within three years, Alex Salmond warns

David Cameron could face a second independence referendum in Scotland within the next three and a half years if Britons vote to leave the European Union, Alex Salmond has said.

The former First Minister of Scotland also said that Scots were more welcoming of immigrants because most people in the country knew family members who had emigrated overseas.**

Mr Salmond was speaking ahead of his participation in The Telegraph’s EU referendum debate with Conservative Brexit supporter Boris Johnson on Tuesday night.

**Scots would expect another independence referendum before 2020, if a Brexit is triggered by a majority vote in England but not in Scotland in the EU vote in 10 days’ time.

This is because after a Leave vote Britain would be expected to negotiate her exit from the EU within two years, as set out in the Lisbon treaty.

In a joint interview with The Daily Telegraph and Huffington Post, Mr Salmond that any second referendum “would have to happen logically in the time scale set in the Lisbon treaty … two years from the date of invocation of Article 50”

“The rational thing to do under these circumstances is to have the referendum in that period because in effect Scotland would not leave, Scotland would remain and the rest of the UK would leave.

“Under the context that would be quite legitimate because Scotland would have voted to remain and the UK would have voted to leave.”**

Asked if he expected the vote to be before 2020, he said: “Yes because Scotland would remain and the UK would leave – it would be a perfect democratic mandate for both of these things.”

Mr Salmond said that England voting for a Brexit against the wishes of Scots would trigger a “significant material change” clause in the SNP’s 2015 general election manifesto allowing Ms Sturgeon to call a referendum.

He said: “There will be a Scottish referendum if and when the Scottish parliament decides there should be one and there is nothing that David Cameron, Boris Johnson, any combination of the two can do about that – that is just what will happen.”

The SNP would have a better chance of winning, he said because “the forces which were arraigned against independence in 2014 have either switched sides or have been neutralised”.

Companies in England which wanted to stay in the EU would most likely back independence or move their headquarters to Edinburgh or Dublin, he said.


In 1776, America "BREXITized’ the Crown. Taxation without representation

Now Britain has a similar problem,
they’ve forfeit their sovereignty to EU bureaucrats not accountable to UK voters.


Obviously the Scots and the English are rabidly different people.
What is wrong with self-determination for Scotland?

It seems a poor excuse to stay in a political situation you don’t like just to keep a people who are either lukewarm or cold to the idea of a continued political relationship with you joined at the hip.
Canadians have had the same kind of relationship with Quebec. In the end, it was really their choice. ‘Do it my way, or else I am leaving you’ is one of those ultimatums that really, really needed to be rejected.

If you want to go, go. If you want to stay, stay. Either way, people need to choose for themselves, and not because someone is using this kind of emotional blackmail over them.


We do vote for our European representatives, you know. There’s nothing undemocratic about it.


For Scotland the EU is important and it is guaranteed that the majority of the Scottish vote will be for Remain. If there is another Independence Referendum, and there will be another one, it will be likely they will vote to leave the British Union and replace it for a bigger one.

My biggest hope that this will happen because if Scotland leaves the UK then there will definitely be a better chance of the North of Ireland leaving as well, seeing how it would be just England and Wales.


English and Scots are not radically different. It is just the fashion of the recent decades for Scots to boast about their “difference” from the English. Just a tricky way to negotiate concession.


English and Scottish voting patterns seem very different. That in itself is a strong case for secession.


The voting pattern between the rural and urban England is also very different. Yet, no one talks about secession.

My academic supervisor (who is a purely Scottish professor, knows Scottish history very well) insists that the differences in political preferences between England and Scotland are very much exaggerated. It is mainly in recent decades that the Scottish nationalist narrative is imposing this difference, almost to the point of rewriting history.

My professor also opined that, even if the UK leaves the EU and even if Scotland has another referendum, the majorioty of Scots would still prefer to stay in the UK.


One thing I’ve long wondered, why are England and Wales referred to s if they are a unit? Statistics like unemployment, church attendance, %age of gingers in the population or whatever are either for the UK as a whole, or Engalndandwales vs Scotland.

If I recall the Welsh voted for “devolution” some years back but that’s all I know ?].


I don’t know. I am one of these North Americans who don’t see a lot of difference between Welsh or Scots or Irish or English.
Local politics likes to focus on being different though

At least with Canada, there is a language barrier between the French and the English.

The English of the British is equally unintelligible and garbled. Maybe that is the problem too. It is possible that they don’t have a clue what each other is talking about too.


No, we can all understand each other just fine. I know exactly what a Geordie, Welshman or a bloke from Belfast is saying. Each of them can understand a Glaswegian or Aberdonian. No problem at all.

As a UK-supporting Scot, I don’t see signfificant difference either - but our local politics and cultures are still important and different.

Scotland has its own legal system and educational system distinct from England, which it has had since before the Union in 1707, for instance.


England and Wales is a jurisdiction covering two of the four countries of the United Kingdom, which follow a single legal system known as English law.

Wales has its own devolved parliamentary assembly, culture, sports teams and national identity like Scotland but it has exactly the same legal system as England. Scotland does not.


I wasn’t being serious. Of course you can understand each other. and most North Americans can understand your garbled accents just fine too.
Like the differences between Tutsi and Hutu, one has to be a local to really appreciate that there even is a difference between the various peoples of Britain.
There are differences between people from Louisiana and Oregon too, or Newfoundland and Alberta for that matter.


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