Carson staying in race, sees South Carolina victory


#21

Bush cannot come back, but even if he did, he is a Bush and has no chance in the general. The GOP field has to put down their egos.


#22

Right now Trump has the momentum, but it’s up in the air as to whether he can maintain it. If Rubio continues to lose like he did in NH, it’s over for him. I don’t think he’ll win SC, but I don’t enough about Nevada to even speculate.

Voters seem to be turning out in record numbers, and that greatly favors a Democratic candidate no matter who it is. Whether they will continue turning out in record numbers is up in the air.

It’s just too soon to tell much of anything.


#23

He’s establishment, not rogue. The mainstream party wants an establishment candidate. Rubio is too young and inexperienced, and he’s made too many mistakes the Democrats can capitalize on.

We tried young and inexperienced with Obama. Didn’t work.


#24

Rubio has to have a very good debate, and he has to do well in SC (not win, just do well). If he fails either of those, he’ll have no real chance.

The issue here is Trump will continue to win if he has no real competitor.


#25

I disagree. Rubio is a brilliant man and quite capable. He had one bad debate and people are condemning him to the dust pile from that.

Let’s not forget a certain inexperienced new Senator that won the White House. Obama is quite possibly the most successful President in history and that tells us experience did not matter in his case, so why would it be any different with Rubio?


#26

I agree getting it down and very soon to Trump, Cruz, and one other, either Bush, Kasich, or Rubio, is the only way I see now after the first 2 contests that it won’t be Trump or Cruz. And if one of them take SC (and they are currently the top 2 in polls) then it will 3 for 3 for Trump/Cruz. And continued winning can beget more winning. Also, Cruz I’ve heard has strong ground games in the upcoming SEC states. Not sure about Trump’s. The thing with Trump though is a lot of his ardent followers seem to decide early. If I’m not mistaken, NH exit polling where he won by that large percentage over 2nd place Kasich, showed his supporters had decided long before that they were going to vote for him.

But if it gets down to just 3 then Trump and Cruz would do the splitting and the last man standing would have a shot at taking advantage. The thing is I’m not sure Kasich will play well in the south and he expanded Medicaid and seems maybe too willing to work with Democrats which is not something that I’m sure today’s Republican voters have an appetite for. Rubio fell from 3rd in IA to 5th in NH so not sure about him. He it seems to me needs a win in SC or a very strong 2nd. That leaves Bush who reportedly has the money and organization. Maybe he will be the last man standing vs Trump/Cruz?


#27

I agree with you: I think it’s going to be Bush and for the reasons you gave. Bush-Kasich (possibly) vs. Sanders-O’Malley.


#28

If Bush rises to third, than it will still be a battle between Trump and Cruz. The Bush name is so tainted, there really is no chance of him winning much. If Rubio has a really strong debate, and a solid showing in SC, he can continue. I believe Kasich and Carson are just vote splitters at this point.


#29

Funny you should mention Bush-Kasich. I just heard a pundit this morning say the same thing.


#30

So you think the people who have not supported the Trump/Cruz combo would then support one of them over Bush?

Carson seeing a win, per the thread title, I don’t get where he sees that at all. I guess he’s counting on evangelicals but Cruz gets evangelicals too. Unless Carson is going to make a big thing in SC about what went down in IA over him quitting and try to bring Cruz down over that. Cruz did better than expected in NH though where evangelicals are not necessarily big players.


#31

It’s strange I would guess what any pundit said because I am so politically unsophisticated! LOL But I really have a feeling it’s going to come down to Bush. I don’t think Rubio is going to be forgiven for his bad debate performance or for his youth and inexperience. Kasich isn’t well known outside of Ohio. Cruz is too extreme. Trump is not establishment.

Bush is married to a Hispanic if I’m not mistaken. He has experience. He’s quite establishment. A lot of people liked the two previous planted Bushes.

I don’t mind Bush. I think Sanders could/would beat him.


#32

I believe they’d support Cruz.

I can’t imagine how anyone can think a Bush (this soon after the last Bush Presidency) has any chance at winning. Maybe if we were 20 or 30 years down the road, but not seven.

Jeb suffers under the continuing hatred so many people have for W. it is unfair, but true.


#33

IMO, Sanders has no chance against Hillary.

Also, imo, Bush has no chance at winning much of anything.

There are only three possible winners, in this order of likelihood: Trump, Cruz, Rubio. Of those three, I believe Rubio is the only one that can beat Hillary.


#34

If Carson is at 8.7% per one poll and these polls have these margin of eras, then, quite possibly, he could hope to poll for 10% or more. Perhaps that is reason enough to go one more State, one never knows though I’m sure the outright chance of a good finish, say, 2nd place and 17% is very remote.

But again, why not?


#35

He does, that’s true, but a lot of people liked W. (I didn’t.) Enough to put him in the White House two terms.


#36

I would bet on Trump or Cruz as the nominee over Rubio. I think he has no chance. But SC and Nevada will give us more of an idea. There are a LOT of Evangelicals in western SC. They might go for Cruz. After Super Tuesday we can really start making predictions with more accuracy (well maybe not me LOL, somehow, though, my predictions are amazingly accurate despite my lack of political sophistication). Time will tell. Time will tell.


#37

I can’t imagine though that a brokered convention where Trump goes in ahead and there is a fight to deny him the nomination, would be seen as a good thing to his avid supporters. And if the GOP erupts in chaos, appearing not to have it’s act together on LeBron Jame’s homecourt in front of a nationally televised audience, it will be interesting to see how all that would play across America. Especially when a wk later in contrast, they are likely to see Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders together on the stage. I’m only going by what Bernie said Tues night. He said he was saying this not only to his opponents but to his supporters as well, that in a few mos we are going to have to come together. That we can’t allow a Republican to retake to the WH.


#38

I actually tend to agree with you–I think Rubio took major damage in the debate. He has a slim chance to get back in, and that would require a very strong debate and a solid showing in SC. If he misses on either of those, he’s probably done.

I don’t mind Cruz, yet I think his national favorability numbers are not great, and Trump’s are even worse. Rubio has very good favorability numbers, or at least he did before that last debate.

We cannot forget that Obama was inexperienced, and he was quite young, and he was/is a great speech maker. Rubio does not have a lot of experience, he is young, and he is a great speech maker.


#39

Trump I guess wrote “The art of the deal”, the thing is, if there is a brokered convention, he could try to get some of the delegates of other candidates as well so it’s not just that one-way street of those against Trump. Maybe Trump could get some Cruz delegates as well.


#40

I agree with this post.

As for the overall topic, Carson seems to have fizzled out quite a bit. I was intrigued to see Kasich spike up so much, incidentally, at New Hampshire; I’m wondering if he’ll be a key player in South Carolina, and possibly even an obstacle to Carson.


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