CBO: O-Care will cost 2.5M workers

The new healthcare law will cost the nation the equivalent of 2.5 million workers in the next decade, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated in a report released Tuesday.

thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/budget/197365-cbo-o-care-slowing-growth

In other news, Pope Francis call unemployment unjust.

If only there had been people who warned us before passage of this law of the bad consequences that would ensue…

I hate to say I told you so…

But actually, this issue is not unemployment, it is mostly from people leaving the labor force. If people choose to leave the labor force that is amoral.

It’s a combination of things (including, for example, dropping people to part-time).

But if people “choose” to leave the labor force because they are better off on the dole, that’s immoral. Or, to be more precise, that’s moral hazard.

Structural unemployment is unjust, to paraphrase Pope Francis.

You mean like Social Security recipients who would rather receive the dole than work?

In part:

apps.npr.org/unfit-for-work/

forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2013/04/08/how-americans-game-the-200-billion-a-year-disability-industrial-complex/

But you knew that didn’t you?

aei-ideas.org/2012/07/julias-mother-why-a-single-mom-is-better-off-on-welfare-than-taking-a-69000-a-year-job/

independent.ie/irish-news/families-who-are-4000-better-off-on-dole-than-at-work-29723996.html

nationalreview.com/article/356317/welfare-better-deal-work-michael-tanner

Lots more where that came from. Just google “better off on welfare”.

Surprise, surprise, surprise (to quote Gomer Pyle)

Just about everyone over 65 is better off on welfare, that is why so few of them work.

Pope Francis is 77.

He is the exception, isn’t he?

Hardly. But if being like Christ is too hard, try just being more like Pope Francis.

How many of them have been on welfare for most of what could have been their earning years?

The more we find out what’s in it, the less I like it–and I had a very low opinion of it in the first place.:frowning:

The CBO also notes that the deficit will top a $trillion again by 2022. Pretty soon we will be talking real money.

The CBO said, in the report, that it is an estimate hinging on the notion that people would rather not work full time or work at all in order to be eligible for a health insurance subsidy. They were not saying that employers would reduce he number of FTE positions available, only that people supposedly wouldn’t want them. I don’t know who came up with that, but I think they’re crazy. No one is going to turn down work for the sole purpose of applying for an intangible subsidy. That money is sent directly to the insurance provider.

You may be right about CBO estimates being crazy. As far as I know neither the CBO nor any administration’s budget director has ever forecast a recession, even though they occur on a pretty regular basis. What worries me is that government forecasts are usually too rosy. If this is the usual rosy projection, we may be in big trouble.

Maybe. The median income for a full time worker is $44,408. The median income for a part time worker is $11,752. I just don’t see people volunteering or deliberately taking a $32,656 pay cut for a $2,500 subsidy they’ll never see.

According to the report, it is not the median paid workers who will leave the workforce, it is the lower paid workers. This is just one more benefit available for not working that makes the marginal rate for working at a low skill job low or even negative. The underground economy will expand and we can be more like Greece.

I read an article not long ago about some of the former coal mining areas in Kentucky. Canned pop is, it appears, currency there. No jobs, so a huge portion of the population is on foods stamps. You can buy canned pop with food stamps. Storekeepers would buy the cases of pop back at a huge discount, for cash, then sell them again, and the cycle would repeat. It’s fraud, of course, but apparently nobody cares.

I would be greatly surprised if the loss of jobs due to Obamacare is only 2.5 million. I would be very surprised if it hasn’t greatly exceeded it already.

I don’t think job loss is an accurate way to describe a refusal to work. The CBO didn’t estimate that the positions themselves would be lost.

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