Clinton up 5 points over Trump in Arizona


#1

Hillary Clinton is hanging on to a small but widening lead over Donald Trump in what remains an up-for-grabs race for Arizona’s 11 electoral votes, according to a new Arizona Republic/Morrison/Cronkite News poll released Wednesday.

azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/10/19/arizona-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump/92339110/

Small but widening? Not sure if that is a non-sequitur or not


#2

I think that’s pretty fascinating, to see Arizona becoming competitive. I have relatives in Arizona and they are Dems (I intend to visit them one day, haven’t had the time yet although they’ve visited me over here in the UK in the past). They always used to tell me how odd it was for them to be the only ‘liberals’ among very Conservative neighbours, although they have staunchly Republican family members too.

Maybe they won’t be feeling so out of place this year. My relations supported Bernie Sanders during the primaries and are sort of reluctant Clinton supporters - although I’ve heard through the grapevine that they are campaigning hard for her at the moment because they abhor Trump and what he stands for so vehemently.

My impression is that fear of Trump - rather than enthusiasm - is motivating a substantial number of reluctant Dems, ‘moderate Repubs’ and Independents to back Hillary. Her poll numbers seem to be going up and up rather than tightening with her opponent as we get closer to election day.

We live in strange times on both sides of the Atlantic.


#3

Texas is also getting competitive


#4

Polls are not trustworthy.

The same poll is run by a Clinton Superpac who polled mostly Democrats. This pads her numbers to demoralize voters from voting by having them think she’s already won it.

DO NOT TRUST THE POLLS


#5

The Republicans blew it by selecting Trump. Even Ted Cruz would probably have beaten Hillary. Rubio or Kasich would’ve easily won.

:sigh:


#6

Ted Cruz would have had no chance, but I agree that Rubio and Kasich would have easily won. I would have loved Kasich as a candidate, but the Republican primary electorate did not know how to choose wisely.


#7

Not normally, but in this election I think so.


#8

Republicans didn’t select Trump, the voters did and in record numbers.

Cruz and Kasich showed their true colors in refusing to offer their endorsements. Cruz waited too long and Kasich further illustrated he was a sore loser by refusing to even show up to the RNC in his home state that hosted it. I’ll give Cruz credit though, I’m sure he would be a much better debater against Hillary than Trump is at the moment.


#9

What are you saying here?


#10

No, Kasich showed great moral backbone by refusing to endorse unfit and dangerous Trump. He gained respect with me for 2020.


#11

Cruz is far too fringe but Rubio/Kasich would have beaten her, I agree.

The Trump fever is like a collective fit of hysteria or mass absence of mind on the part of some Republican voters.

When their stupor wears off and their senses return, they will bitterly regret it.


#12

They may not be a reliable barometer, but I’d day the number of Trump bumper stickers and yard signs I see as I drive all around Arizona is probably a 20 to 1 ratio in favor of Trump. I drove down one street last week where every house but one had a Trump sign. I’ve seen maybe 3 Hillary stickers total, and I drive around the state a lot.

It might actually be a pretty good barometer of voter enthusiasm, though. If you put on a bumper sticker or plant a sign in your yard in today’s polarized climate, you stand a good chance of getting your car keyed or your house egged. You may also antagonize your neighbors who don’t share your political beliefs. You have to REALLY like your candidate to be willing to risk all that. If you have tepid support for a candidate for which you have to hold your nose to vote, you may well find good reasons not to wait in a long line on election day. Sign & Bumper Stickers = Almost Certain Voter.

This election will largely hinge on voter enthusiasm, I think. Hillary is weak with white males, millennials, the working class, old people, and young minorities. Trump is weak with white females, older minorities, and the college educated. Whichever side has the most motivated electorate in the battleground states has the best chance. The size of the rallies for Trump v. Clinton might not be the best predictor, but it does demonstrate relative voter enthusiasm levels, which are a significant factor.


#13

To endorse someone is to say, “I believe this person will do whats best” or “I believe this person has the skills/character/morals to do x”.

Kasich obviously doesnt believe that Trump is fit to be president and has chosen not to lie and say he does. He’s said so many times.

I thought all these grass root populists loved Trumps plain spoken honesty? It seems a tad hypocritical to ask others to lie about about their true feelings just to “go along”. Isn’t that the very behavior Washington is hated for?


#14

Yep


#15

Am I understanding this correctly? Catholics on this board are voting for Hillary who is for abortion, will promote liberal judges who are against religious liberty. Trump on the other hand is prolife. I’ll say that no one who is Christian and in good conscience can vote for an abortionist.


#16

I think I remember Karl Rove making the same comment on FOX News, right up to the time they declared Obama the winner over Romney!


#17

No, that’s not really correct. Although I’ll speak for my own views on the matter…

First, I’m not voting for Hillary. Or Trump. Second, Trump might be pro-life. We don’t really know, he basically just panders to whatever crowd he is talking to. He’s even flip-flopped, then flipped again on the proposal that propelled him initially, to build a wall on the southern border. All that I can really figure out for sure with Trump is that he gets upset easily and finds ways to anger lots of people.


#18

Harry Truman did too.

This might be the first election in U.S. history in which a majority of voters elected a corrupt or perhaps even criminal anti-Catholic in preference to a man who merely has bad manners.


#19

Voting for a third party is just taking away a vote from Hillary or Trump. The idea is to vote the lesser of the two evils because one of them will win. Our job as Catholics and Protestants is to fight the national sin of abortion and promote conservative Supreme Court judges for the protection of religious liberty. If Hillary is elected a more liberal senate and Supreme Court would garuntee more persecution from the LGBT community. Any of our free speech against homosexual lifestyle would be labeled as hate speech and bigoted. Have you been keeping up with the Wikileaks info or have watched “Hillary’s America” ? If not then it’s a must before voting. This woman is truly evil.


#20

Clinton up 5 points over Trump in Arizona

I saw this poll too and began to wonder about it so I dug into their methodology.

The poll over samples women by +8 and Democrats by +33!!!

I wouldn’t put too much stock in this poll.


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