CNN/ORC poll: Democrats lose 2014 edge following Obamacare uproar


#1

*Washington (CNN) *– What a difference a month makes. A new CNN/ORC International poll indicates a dramatic turnaround in the battle for control of Congress in next year's midterm elections.

Democrats a month ago held a 50%-42% advantage among registered voters in a generic ballot, which asked respondents to choose between a Democrat or Republican in their congressional district without identifying the candidates.
That result came after congressional Republicans appeared to overplay their hand in the bitter fight over the federal government shutdown and the debt ceiling.
But the Democratic lead has disappeared. A new CNN/ORC poll indicates the GOP now holds a 49%-47% edge...

politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/11/26/cnnorc-poll-democrats-lose-2014-edge-following-obamacare-uproar/?hpt=hp_t2

Not that this is the final say on the 2014 elections, but I do think it shows that the shutdown strategy was a mistake.


#2

I think the shutdown strategy was also a mistake for the Republican party. That said, I really hope that the Democrat party does not win the next presidential elections. I am afraid that if we get another Democrat for a president that he/she will be even worse than Obama as far as attacks on our freedom goes.


#3

We need to get a conservative majority in the senate, especially since the libs pushed that nuclear deal through.


#4

() = Current GOP Seat

Safe GOP:

WV, SD, MT (ME) (KY)

Solid GOP

AR, LA (GA)

----------------------------------------------GOP +5 = tie

Toss-up:

AK, CO, NC, MI

Lean Dem but vulnerable:

VA, NM, NH, IA, MN


#5

[quote="Holly3278, post:2, topic:346316"]
I think the shutdown strategy was also a mistake for the Republican party.

[/quote]

True, but they had few alternatives.

That said, I really hope that the Democrat party does not win the next presidential elections.

For your country's sake, and for the rest of the world, I share your hope. :thumbsup:

I am afraid that if we get another Democrat for a president that he/she will be even worse than Obama as far as attacks on our freedom goes.

Hmmm, not so certain about this one. Another Bill Clinton (say) would also be a disaster, because people would say "look, he's not as bad / anti-religious / confrontational as Obama", and would continue to vote Democrat and look the other way at the serious moral issues that their party platform entails.


#6

quote="SuperLuigi, post:4, topic:346316" = Current GOP Seat

Safe GOP:

WV, SD, MT (ME) (KY)

Solid GOP

AR, LA (GA)

----------------------------------------------GOP +5 = tie

Toss-up:

AK, CO, NC, MI

Lean Dem but vulnerable:

VA, NM, NH, IA, MN

[/quote]

Louisiana is a toss-up. Landrieu always wins by about 2 points, but she still wins. MT is leaning GOP, not safe. SD I would have said is safe before, but polling indicates it may be close, so I would put it in the "solid GOP" column instead of safe. WV is probably safe GOP. GA is lean GOP, not solid, as the GOP primary is extremely bloody. AR is a "Leans Democratic" if Pryor runs for re-election, which I expect him to do. He's one of the most conservative, if not the MOST conservative Democrat in the entire Senate. Manchin probably outflanks him now, but that would still make him the 2nd (or 3rd after Donnelly) most conservative Democrat in the Senate. Michigan is solid Dem. NC is leans Dem.

As for your "Lean Dems," Mark Warner is a "Safe Dem." He is absolutely beloved in this state. NM is safe Dem, NH is solid Dem, Iowa is a toss-up with Harkin retiring, and Minnesota is solid Dem.

I agree with CO/AK being toss-ups. KY is probably Leans Republican right now.

I have Republicans winning 3 seats (WV/SD/MT) barring a crazy situation, possibly losing GA, possibly losing Kentucky, possibly winning Louisiana. Even if they sweep that column, they're still only at 4 seats. They need 2 more to overtake the Senate from AK, IA, AR, NC, which would be hard for them to do. Even still, they need to gain enough of an advantage that when, in 2016, they lose a minimum of 2 seats, they'll have at least 50 for control and 51 for "real" control if the off-chance of a Republican President actually happens.


#7

[quote="SMGS127, post:6, topic:346316"]
Louisiana is a toss-up. Landrieu always wins by about 2 points, but she still wins. MT is leaning GOP, not safe. SD I would have said is safe before, but polling indicates it may be close, so I would put it in the "solid GOP" column instead of safe. WV is probably safe GOP. GA is lean GOP, not solid, as the GOP primary is extremely bloody. AR is a "Leans Democratic" if Pryor runs for re-election, which I expect him to do. He's one of the most conservative, if not the MOST conservative Democrat in the entire Senate. Manchin probably outflanks him now, but that would still make him the 2nd (or 3rd after Donnelly) most conservative Democrat in the Senate. Michigan is solid Dem. NC is leans Dem.

As for your "Lean Dems," Mark Warner is a "Safe Dem." He is absolutely beloved in this state. NM is safe Dem, NH is solid Dem, Iowa is a toss-up with Harkin retiring, and Minnesota is solid Dem.

I agree with CO/AK being toss-ups. KY is probably Leans Republican right now.

I have Republicans winning 3 seats (WV/SD/MT) barring a crazy situation, possibly losing GA, possibly losing Kentucky, possibly winning Louisiana. Even if they sweep that column, they're still only at 4 seats. They need 2 more to overtake the Senate from AK, IA, AR, NC, which would be hard for them to do. Even still, they need to gain enough of an advantage that when, in 2016, they lose a minimum of 2 seats, they'll have at least 50 for control and 51 for "real" control if the off-chance of a Republican President actually happens.

[/quote]

They won't lose KY. McConnell has a shot Senate majority leader and midterms are about turnouts.

GOP needs to be careful with AK---it's safe red in presidential elections, but more like North Dakota with all the independents. They'll need a good candidate to win and that would probably not be Joe Miller.

The GOP blew their chance for a good lead in 2016 in 2012. They'll have to win MI, MN, IA or some of the other outlying states plus all the expected pick-ups in order to hold that off.

But the incumbency of Ron Johnson, Mark Kirk and Pat Toomey will work to their advantage as it usually does. The left will gin up their blue state argument, but blue staters adore pragmatic republicans.

Democrats are doing things right in GA, but it's still a good red state. '


#8

I think the lead for Republicans could be even higher because the CNN/ORC poll polled by generic ballot, but as Charlie Cook noted in September

It is important to keep in mind, however, that the generic-ballot question tends to yield results that tilt about 2 points more Democratic than the national popular vote has ultimately ended up, regardless of who conducts the survey or how precisely pollsters ask the question.

nationaljournal.com/off-to-the-races/democrats-need-to-keep-an-eye-on-republican-tilting-independent-voters-20130923

He also noted the Independents were tilting Republican by 18 points and 14 points in 2010, and this was before the Obamacare roll out


#9

[quote="_Abyssinia, post:8, topic:346316"]
I think the lead for Republicans could be even higher because the CNN/ORC poll polled by generic ballot, but as Charlie Cook noted in September

nationaljournal.com/off-to-the-races/democrats-need-to-keep-an-eye-on-republican-tilting-independent-voters-20130923

He also noted the Independents were tilting Republican by 18 points and 14 points in 2010, and this was before the Obamacare roll out

[/quote]

Thanks for info, I did not know that!


#10

[quote="_Abyssinia, post:8, topic:346316"]
I think the lead for Republicans could be even higher because the CNN/ORC poll polled by generic ballot, but as Charlie Cook noted in September

nationaljournal.com/off-to-the-races/democrats-need-to-keep-an-eye-on-republican-tilting-independent-voters-20130923

He also noted the Independents were tilting Republican by 18 points and 14 points in 2010, and this was before the Obamacare roll out

[/quote]

Actually Obamacare has not really gone into effect and things may change when people actually get some healthcare. It's all in the perception right now. As well as a failed website which over time will work itself out. Our company had a life insurance exchange back in 2002 but in the end, agents had to be rehired and most applications were completed over the phone using internal IT systems. There is no substitute for the human voice.


#11

[quote="ProVobis, post:10, topic:346316"]
Actually Obamacare has not really gone into effect and things may change when people actually get some healthcare. It's all in the perception right now. As well as a failed website which over time will work itself out. Our company had a life insurance exchange back in 2002 but in the end, agents had to be rehired and most applications were completed over the phone using internal IT systems. There is no substitute for the human voice.

[/quote]

When young and healthy people have to pay high premiums because Obamacare forces them to pay for the old and sick, we will see how much they support him. The bottom 10 percent might be helped by this bill, but the middle 80 percent are getting screwed.


#12

[quote="ProVobis, post:10, topic:346316"]
Actually Obamacare has not really gone into effect and things may change when people actually get some healthcare. It's all in the perception right now. As well as a failed website which over time will work itself out. Our company had a life insurance exchange back in 2002 but in the end, agents had to be rehired and most applications were completed over the phone using internal IT systems. There is no substitute for the human voice.

[/quote]

Yes, wait until employers start dropping plans and casting blame on the ACA. That coupled with low signups from the youth are recipes for a bright future. The damage has been done to the ACA reputation and the Dems who are running and who are record claiming you could keep your coverage (like Landrieu).


#13

[quote="Holly3278, post:2, topic:346316"]
I am afraid that if we get another Democrat for a president that he/she will be even worse than Obama as far as attacks on our freedom goes.

[/quote]

It's not possible for a president to be worse than Obama since the only reason he hasn't done more to attack Christian morality is that the laws and constitution have slowed him. But, since day one, Obama and his party have worked tirelessly to whittle those laws down and redefine them. Given more time, it would seem there is no limit to what Obama would do to hurt our religious freedoms since his leftist ideology is as extreme as it gets. If another Democrat becomes president after Obama it will be someone who has exactly the same leftist ideology as Obama who will merely continue where Obama had left off. That's why it would be more accurate to describe another Democrat president as more of the same than worse than Obama.
**
"President-elect Obama is prepared to really take power and begin to rule day one" - Valerie Jarrett Senior Advisor to Obama**


#14

Employers have been outsourcing jobs because of the high cost of insurance for many years now. Foreigners are either subsidized or have much lower health costs. If I remember right, our economic disadvantage and growing unemployment promoted healthcare reform in the first place. Unfortunately Obamacare has not solved that problem.


#15

[quote="jimmy, post:11, topic:346316"]
When young and healthy people have to pay high premiums because Obamacare forces them to pay for the old and sick, we will see how much they support him. The bottom 10 percent might be helped by this bill, but the middle 80 percent are getting screwed.

[/quote]

I understand in California the young and healthy have applied through their exchange in slightly higher percentages than actuaries expected. So it's not like it can't be done.


#16

[quote="ProVobis, post:10, topic:346316"]
Actually Obamacare has not really gone into effect and things may change when people actually get some healthcare. It's all in the perception right now. As well as a failed website which over time will work itself out. Our company had a life insurance exchange back in 2002 but in the end, agents had to be rehired and most applications were completed over the phone using internal IT systems. There is no substitute for the human voice.

[/quote]

If you are correct that it has not really gone into effect, and over 5 million insurance plans (that will be cancelled even if some are reinstated till October 2014) have been cancelled and who knows how many people that effects because one plan can have multiple people who are entitled and benefited from a plan, doesn't that make Obamacre even worse? The website working properly won't change the reality of many people seemingly having sticker shock


#17

[quote="ProVobis, post:15, topic:346316"]
I understand in California the young and healthy have applied through their exchange in slightly higher percentages than actuaries expected. So it's not like it can't be done.

[/quote]

Applied...but, are they purchasing? That will be the ultimate indicator.


#18

The Hotline's Senate Race Rankings: Democrats on Defense

A lot has happened since National Journal Hotline last surveyed the Senate landscape. Republicans took a significant hit when their efforts to derail the Affordable Care Act resulted in a federal government shutdown. But the struggles in implementing that law have swung the pendulum back in the GOP's favor in recent weeks.

Combined with a favorable map, Republican momentum has put control of the Senate firmly in play. In fact, the 7 seats most likely to switch parties in our latest Hotline Senate Rankings are only Democratic-held. If Republicans flip 6 of the 7 -- without losing any of their own vulnerable seats -- they would control the Senate in 2015.

Overall, 13 of the 15 most vulnerable seats are held by Democrats. Just two GOP-held seats are even somewhat in danger of flipping parties: Georgia, where Republicans could nominate a controversial candidate like Rep. Paul Broun, and Kentucky, where Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell isn't popular and faces well-funded primary and general-election challengers.

The seats are listed in order of their likelihood to switch partisan control after the 2014 elections. These rankings represent The Hotline's current read of the Senate landscape.



#19

[quote="Dawnia, post:17, topic:346316"]
Applied...but, are they purchasing? That will be the ultimate indicator.

[/quote]

That is the ultimate indicator. And from what I have heard they are counting those who have applied, even if they don't end up purchasing.


#20

[quote="ProVobis, post:15, topic:346316"]
I understand in California the young and healthy have applied through their exchange in slightly higher percentages than actuaries expected. So it's not like it can't be done.

[/quote]

Right, parse your words and an epic fail becomes just a garden variety fail. At this point over a MILLION Californians have received cancellation notices and about 100000 have signed up. That's not exactly a howling success.

When you have Birkenstock wearing Berkley residents howling about THEIR plans being cancelled and how much more they will have to pay, you have a problem.

Back to the thread,no one has mentioned my state Oregon. We have the MOST DREADFUL LEFTIST HACK up for re-election. Jeff Merkley is to the left of Harry Reid and is about as ethical. He was among the Senators who demanded that exempt orgs that leaned to the right be scrutinized. I wrote him a nice long note about that...and he admitted it. Also admitted he "didn't know the IRS would act so aggressively...."

Now he's saying he "didn't know ya couldn't keep your plan" although he is on record voting against the Enzi amendment (along with another hack Mary Landrieu who's similarly nervous).. Short memory I guess.

There is an amazing female pediatric neurosurgeon Dr Monica Wehby who's in the running and she has some Portland movers and shakers behind her. There is also another potential candidate.

I hope our state which is completely controlled by Multnomah and Lane county Leftists might wake from its stupor and actually think about whom they are putting in office.

Oh and as to OUR Obamacare experience, THREE HUNDRED MILLION PLUS DOLLARS and NOT ONE PERSON HAS SIGNED UP.

Our tax dollars at work when Leftists run the show. God help us survive this man's force of destruction

Lisa


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