[quote="SMGS127, post:6, topic:346316"]
Louisiana is a toss-up. Landrieu always wins by about 2 points, but she still wins. MT is leaning GOP, not safe. SD I would have said is safe before, but polling indicates it may be close, so I would put it in the "solid GOP" column instead of safe. WV is probably safe GOP. GA is lean GOP, not solid, as the GOP primary is extremely bloody. AR is a "Leans Democratic" if Pryor runs for re-election, which I expect him to do. He's one of the most conservative, if not the MOST conservative Democrat in the entire Senate. Manchin probably outflanks him now, but that would still make him the 2nd (or 3rd after Donnelly) most conservative Democrat in the Senate. Michigan is solid Dem. NC is leans Dem.
As for your "Lean Dems," Mark Warner is a "Safe Dem." He is absolutely beloved in this state. NM is safe Dem, NH is solid Dem, Iowa is a toss-up with Harkin retiring, and Minnesota is solid Dem.
I agree with CO/AK being toss-ups. KY is probably Leans Republican right now.
I have Republicans winning 3 seats (WV/SD/MT) barring a crazy situation, possibly losing GA, possibly losing Kentucky, possibly winning Louisiana. Even if they sweep that column, they're still only at 4 seats. They need 2 more to overtake the Senate from AK, IA, AR, NC, which would be hard for them to do. Even still, they need to gain enough of an advantage that when, in 2016, they lose a minimum of 2 seats, they'll have at least 50 for control and 51 for "real" control if the off-chance of a Republican President actually happens.
They won't lose KY. McConnell has a shot Senate majority leader and midterms are about turnouts.
GOP needs to be careful with AK---it's safe red in presidential elections, but more like North Dakota with all the independents. They'll need a good candidate to win and that would probably not be Joe Miller.
The GOP blew their chance for a good lead in 2016 in 2012. They'll have to win MI, MN, IA or some of the other outlying states plus all the expected pick-ups in order to hold that off.
But the incumbency of Ron Johnson, Mark Kirk and Pat Toomey will work to their advantage as it usually does. The left will gin up their blue state argument, but blue staters adore pragmatic republicans.
Democrats are doing things right in GA, but it's still a good red state. '