Dead heat: Trump, Clinton tied in 3 swing-state polls


#1

Buckle up for the next six months: Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are effectively tied in the swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to the results of a Quinnipiac University survey released Tuesday.

politico.com/story/2016/05/trump-clinton-florida-ohio-pennsylvania-222994


#2

From New York Times:

“At this juncture, Trump is doing better in Pennsylvania than the G.O.P. nominees in 2008 and 2012,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll. “And the two candidates are about where their party predecessors were at this point in Ohio and Florida.”

nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/05/10/three-crucial-states-show-tight-races-between-donald-trump-and-hillary-clinton/


#3

This is when voters who think the election is safe and stay home in November need to pay attention.

Too many people keep doubting Trump will go all the way. It wasn’t long ago that everyone laughed at the very idea of him even starting a serious campaign. He has continuously proven everyone wrong. I may not like the guy, but I recognize that he has a very strong chance of winning it all.


#4

Right. I was one of those in the fall who scoffed at the idea that Trump could actually win the nomination. I thought he’d make a lot of noise and maybe even win a few states but then be out by Super Tuesday.

So when people start posting stories about Clinton being ahead in the polls, you’ll forgive me if I don’t put much stock in them at this point. Trump’s popularity has continued to increase well beyond what I thought was possible. So it wouldn’t surprise me to see him win it all. Not anymore.


#5

Please read this:

washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/02/republicans-have-a-massive-electoral-map-problem-that-has-nothing-to-do-with-donald-trump/


#6

Could be, but I wish he would do it with a little more class.


#7

He cannot win if millions of Republicans do not vote – and even if they all voted for him, it will be still hard to beat Hillary’s clear electoral vote advantage. If Trump refuses to make a deal with traditional conservatives, he will lose (badly).

Democrats rarely stray from their camp–it sometimes happens, but it is very, very rare.


#8

“At this juncture, Trump is doing better in Pennsylvania than the G.O.P. nominees in 2008 and 2012,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll. “And the two candidates are about where their party predecessors were at this point in Ohio and Florida.”

nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/05/10/three-crucial-states-show-tight-races-between-donald-trump-and-hillary-clinton/


#9

Obama won the electoral vote 332 to 206 over Romney in 2012.

If Clinton holds all the same blue states and Trump holds all the same red states and the three states mentioned in this poll (which all went Democrat in 2012) go to Trump, Trump wins the election:

Trump: 206 + Florida (29) + Pennsylvania (20) + Ohio (18) = 273
Clinton: 332 - Florida (29) - Pennsylvania (20) - Ohio (18) = 265


#10

Trying to act “respectable” is what got conservatives 50 years of defeat.


#11

Now let’s presume the governor of New Mexico, who’s running on the Libertarian ticket, wins New Mexico:

Trump: 273
Clinton: 260
Johnson: 5

:popcorn:


#12

Sure, if Trump can get more votes than Romney…which right now looks quite doubtful.


#13

Nonsense. We are a fickle bunch of voters. We should have won in 2012–we lost not because was bad (he wasn’t and isn’t)–rather, we lost because 3-5,000,000 Republicans sat out the election. That exact same outcome will happen again if Trump refuses to comfort traditional conservatives.


#14

In Florida and Pennsylvania, Trump had similar turnout in his favor as Clinton. As far as Ohio, that’s difficult to gauge from the primary results since Kasich won Ohio.

Trump could win the election with less than 50% of the popular vote. Winning the swing states is what matters these days (See Bush v. Gore).


#15

I was watching fox and they talked about this poll and these 3 swing states. On one hand, as they stated, Republicans can feel good about it, but the poll also showed, 2 heavy red states as being toss up: Utah and Mississippi.


#16

I doubt think the Quinnipiac poll polled Utah and Missisipi. Perhaps they were referring to this Utah poll which was reported in March which showed Clinton up two over Trump? And another report on a poll showed Trump up three in Mississippi. I think Trump has problems with Mormona in Utah. If that poll was accurate, he may have to try and find some way of making inroads.


#17

As long as Florida upgraded its outdated voting technology, hopefully we at least won’t be staring cross-eyed at chads for weeks on end. :smiley:


#18

The problem is there are millions who won’t vote for Trump. I honestly think that if Trump does not bridge the gap to traditional conservatives (if he keeps that out as he has been doing), then he will lose in huge numbers.


#19

washingtontimes.com/news/2016/may/10/hillary-clinton-nets-big-bucks-from-justice-dept-e/

The FBI’s investigation into the “secret server” Hillary Clinton used as President Obama’s top diplomat has not halted political contributions from the very department that may be tasked with her prosecution.

Donations from Department of Justice employees to the former secretary of state have dwarfed those made to her political opponents. Mrs. Clinton hauled in $73,437 thus far during the 2016 presidential cycle, compared to $8,900 for Vermont Sen. Bernard Sanders and $381 for Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump.

“I’m not surprised in the least to see more evidence that shows the politicization of the Justice Department,” David Bossie, president of the watchdog group Citizens United, told the Washington Free Beacon Tuesday. “How can Democrat political appointees fairly investigate someone who is about to become their nominee for president?”


#20

I don’t see how Trump wins without Florida, so that seems like a must.

When I looked at recent polls, I saw AIF polled Florida recently and found Clinton beating Trump 49-36. I don’t know anything about AIF though. Does anyone know anything about them?

Other recent polling I found was

  • Ohio: Clinton 45, Trump 42 from PPP.
  • Pennslyvania: Clinton 54, Trump 39 from NBC

The results in the Quinnipiac polls seem to be outliers, but I generally think Quinnipiac does a good job, so I’ll be looking for new data from others to confirm this.


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