Donald Trump wins South Carolina; Hillary Clinton takes Nevada


#1

Donald Trump wins South Carolina; Hillary Clinton takes Nevada

(CNN)Donald Trump has won the South Carolina Republican primary, a tremendous show of strength in the heart of the Deep South that validates his status as the GOP’s national front-runner.

Trump’s win, following his victory in New Hampshire earlier this month and a second-place finish in the Iowa caucuses, gives the former reality television star a critical burst of momentum heading into Nevada’s Republican caucuses Tuesday and the slate of 13 states voting on Super Tuesday, March 1.

And the Republican presidential pack shrank to five as Jeb Bush said he is suspending his campaign after a poor showing in South Carolina.

Trump’s performance could unnerve the Republican establishment, since South Carolina has sided with the eventual nominee in every GOP presidential race since 1980, apart from 2012. And, following his risky attack on George W. Bush’s handling of terrorism and the Iraq War, Trump’s win provides more evidence that he can take positions that would undermine virtually any other politician.

From realclearpolitics.com/
**
South Carolina Republican Primary **
Trump 32.5% 44 delegates
Rubio 22.5% 0 delegates
Cruz 22.3% 0 delegates
Bush 7.9% 0 delegates
Kasich 7.6% 0 delegates
Carson 7.2% 0 delegates

Nevada Democratic Caucus
Clinton 52.6% 19 delegates
Sanders 47.3% 15 delegates


#2

Rubio is 2nd:

Marco Rubio has taken 2nd place in South Carolina.

twitter.com/decisiondeskhq/status/701245572011786241


#3

Ted Cruz is 3rd.

Ted Cruz Finishes Third in New Hampshire Primary
abcnews.go.com/Politics/ted-cruz-hampshire-primary/story?id=36836025

1000 votes separating Rubio and Cruz out of 750,000 voters or so.


#4

No Republican has ever won NH and SC and not gone on to win the nomination. John McCain won SC with a similar percentage following his NH victory on his way to the nomination.


#5

Might be a different case now that Jeb (and possibly Kasich and Carson) drops out. This primary cycle will most likely be a battle between voters that want an outsider vs those that want a more standard nominee, and we will see how that turns out now that there are less candidates. It’s been an atypical election year.


#6

Rubio and Cruz are in a virtual tie. Is it a winner take all in South Carolina? Neither
Cruz or Rubio received any delegates.


#7

This is a good showing for Rubio. He would be Trump’s best pick for VP. Kasich would also be a good choice. There may be too much animosity between Trump and Cruz, however, plus I don’t think Cruz would be a good choice for Trump. Rubio would bring in at least some Hispanic voters from Florida and elsewhere and Kasich might put Ohio in play. We shall see.


#8

But as people keep saying, this nomination process has not been like others, it’s defied traditional thinking and traditional action in some ways, like Trump winning in New Hampshire despite a questionable ground game. Considering this, it doesn’t seem unreasonable that a nominee could emerge without having won New Hampshire or South Carolina.


#9

Red State argues, Trump’s 35% is rather constant.

redstate.com/leon_h_wolf/2016/02/20/cnn-trump-path-nomination/

I doubt if “Big” John Kasich will drop out soon, perhaps if he does not fare well by the time mid-March and those primaries are over, then, he might drop out if he is not doing well.

Trump had 5000 involved in the ground game in SC per one reporter; that is a phenomenal number, if 700.000 plus Republicans voted and Trump got 33%, one can start to see how the math figures out.

Obviously, Kasich and Rubio votes are similar.

But Cruz and Trump votes are similar.

Ben Carson I believe leans towards the outsider votes but it is probably a fairly even split.


#10

Over 60% of SC voters sided with an ‘outsider’ I don’t think Carson supporters will shift to Rubio.

I think Trump is more likely to pick Kasish or someone else with proven experience. Rubio’s actual DC experience is quite limited.


#11

I was just thinking about this tonight. I think either Kasich or Rubio would be good VP picks for Trump. Carson still says he is hanging in there.
Does anyone know when SuperTuesday is? Is it March 22nd?


#12

"Trump’s victory will send new shockwaves through the Republican establishment and possibly augur another strong showing for the front-runner in Southern states with a similar ideological profile on Super Tuesday.

“It’s also a good approximation of the party as a whole. It has a mixture of conservative and evangelical voters, particularly in the northwest of the state, and an influential bloc of retired military veterans who hanker for a tough message on national security, with more moderate Republicans on the Atlantic coast – where cities have swelled with migrants from northern states.”

cnn.com/2016/02/20/politics/republicans-south-carolina-primary-highlights/

“Trump has expanded his coalition as the election goes on.”

“The only consistent thread running through the supporters was that most (though not all) were white.”

“Exit polls show the breadth of his coalition in the Palmetto State, too. Trump won men and women, veterans and non-veterans. He won across the state, in all five regions. He even won a plurality of evangelicals, though Cruz edged him among strong conservatives.”

Donald Trump didn’t just win big tonight. He won across the board.

CNN’s exit polling showed that Trump did best with voters who were somewhat conservative and moderate; veterans and non-veterans; suburbs and rural areas; and in all five regions of the state tallied in the poll. He even won a plurality of evangelicals.

theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/02/nevada-south-carolina-results/468114/


#13

Mar 1


#14

I believe it is March 1st.


#15

In the end though, do voters still look more at the top of the ticket? With Trump at the top, would Rubio bring in any more Latinos from FL or elsewhere than those Cuban Republicans who would be with him anyway? What percentage of the Latino vote would Republicans need? Around 45%? Do you think Trump can pull in that much? Democrats also still have a path if they were to lose FL and OH. It would make VA though a necessity.


#16

It is. Trump could do well. On the Democratic side, I’m guessing Hillary does well across the south. Bernie will take his home state of VT. Possibly some combination of Massachusetts, Minnesota, and CO. The latter 2 are caucuses. Mar 15 are FL and OH. Possibly others and perhaps some inbetween. I’m not sure.


#17

My refutation to the claim that someone other than Trump can’t win at this point…

xkcd.com/1122/

Warning. The rest of this site is not 100% appropriate. The page I’m sending you to is fine, however.


#18

SC isn’t technically “Winner take all”, but it IS “Winner take most” - according to fivethirtyeight, 29 of the state’s delegates are automatically given to the statewide winner, with 3 additional delegates given out per Congressional district (the winner of each district wins that district’s 3 delegates). It’s the only non-proportional state before March 15 (though, some states may give all their delegates if a candidate reaches 50% + 1 - and some states have thresholds, which, if not reached, give all the delegates that would have been received by that candidate to the winner of the state).

Regardless, JEB dropping out is (probably) good news for Rubio and (probably) bad news for Ted Cruz down the line, especially with Rubio eeking out a 2nd place finish over Cruz in SC. BTW, as far as Cruz and Rubio go, apparently, according to most polls, supporters of both of them seem to consider the other to be their second choice over Trump. Cruz needs to do extremely well on Mar. 1 to remain viable, really. Rubio just needs to hit the thresholds, because starting Mar. 15, winner take all states start with Ohio and Florida.

As for VPs, I doubt Trump would pick one of his rivals. And even if he did, I doubt they would accept his offer, unless it were Ben Carson.


#19

At this point, I’m actually sort of hoping either Cruz or Rubio drops out (Carson and Kasich should too) so that whoever remains can start beating Trump. This insanity really has gone on far too long… (You can tell when Democrats are happy that a Republican candidate is drawing lots of support that something is very wrong. :D)


#20

Go trump!

Bye Jeb!


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