This polling firm came the closest for the Iowa caucuses
Final Poll Emerson N.H. Trump 31% Bush 16% Kasich 13% Rubio 12% Cruz 11%
With the New Hampshire primary happening tomorrow, a new Emerson College statewide survey shows Republican Donald Trump poised to win in the Granite State with 31% of likely GOP primary voters. The battle is on for second place, with the next four candidates separated by just 5 percentage points: Jeb Bush (16%), John Kasich (13%), Marco Rubio (12%) and Ted Cruz (11%). In the Democratic primary, Bernie Sanders maintains a lead over Hillary Clinton, 54% to 42%.
The survey, conducted from Thursday until late Sunday afternoon, reflects how voter sentiment fluctuates in response to fast-moving events. On Friday, following the Democratic debate, Sanders had a significant bump in his daily numbers to 61%, while Clinton fell to 34%. However, Clinton bounced back by Sunday, closing the gap.
Volatility also characterized the GOP race during this same period. Trump skidded from 37% on Thursday to 22% on Saturday. However, he surged to 33% on Sunday, following his GOP debate performance. Overall, Bush trended upward, from 12% on Thursday to 19% on Saturday and 21% on Sunday. His gain seemed to be at Rubio’s expense. Rubio fell from a high of 17% on Friday to single digits on Sunday.