Donald trumps New Hampshire; battle for second between Bush and Kasich as debate fallout continues. Sanders well ahead of Clinton


#1

This polling firm came the closest for the Iowa caucuses

Final Poll Emerson N.H. Trump 31% Bush 16% Kasich 13% Rubio 12% Cruz 11%

With the New Hampshire primary happening tomorrow, a new Emerson College statewide survey shows Republican Donald Trump poised to win in the Granite State with 31% of likely GOP primary voters. The battle is on for second place, with the next four candidates separated by just 5 percentage points: Jeb Bush (16%), John Kasich (13%), Marco Rubio (12%) and Ted Cruz (11%). In the Democratic primary, Bernie Sanders maintains a lead over Hillary Clinton, 54% to 42%.

The survey, conducted from Thursday until late Sunday afternoon, reflects how voter sentiment fluctuates in response to fast-moving events. On Friday, following the Democratic debate, Sanders had a significant bump in his daily numbers to 61%, while Clinton fell to 34%. However, Clinton bounced back by Sunday, closing the gap.

Volatility also characterized the GOP race during this same period. Trump skidded from 37% on Thursday to 22% on Saturday. However, he surged to 33% on Sunday, following his GOP debate performance. Overall, Bush trended upward, from 12% on Thursday to 19% on Saturday and 21% on Sunday. His gain seemed to be at Rubio’s expense. Rubio fell from a high of 17% on Friday to single digits on Sunday.

theecps.com/


#2

Oh, how I wish Kasich would creep up in the primaries. He is the best Republican in terms of views, although perhaps too moderate given the mood now in the GOP. Rubio is still the party’s best chance of uniting its fraying, competing factions IMHO.


#3

He put his whole heart and soul into NH, if he doesn’t eek out a 3rd place in NH, I am not sure if he will continue.


#4

By the way, this answers the question why Bush and Trump keep attacking each other. Bush has the momentum going into SC. And why Trump is being nicer in NH

Volatility also characterized the GOP race during this same period. Trump skidded from 37% on Thursday to 22% on Saturday. However, he surged to 33% on Sunday, following his GOP debate performance. Overall, Bush trended upward, from 12% on Thursday to 19% on Saturday and 21% on Sunday. His gain seemed to be at Rubio’s expense. Rubio fell from a high of 17% on Friday to single digits on Sunday. Bush and Kasich have the highest favorability ratings among likely GOP primary voters.

Bush’s differential is +17 (55% favorable, 38% unfavorable). Kasich is +15 (52% favorable, 37% unfavorable), and Rubio’s margin is +10 (50% to 40%). Trump’s favorable/unfavorable numbers are nearly equal (49% to 46%). Among the top GOP contenders, only Cruz is in negative territory, with a -21 rating (35% favorable, 56% unfavorable).

media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_40ad3c95ef7d40e5bc8470098cbc702f.pdf


#5

My son was in Manchester NH yesterday.

He said he saw many Jeb Bush signs in the area.

Jim


#6

Don’t doubt it in the least. Bush has plenty of money to hire people to put up signs.


#7

Regarding the Emerson poll, this tweet shows the change since their January poll:

Final Emerson NH GOP Poll (change from their Jan poll):
Trump 31 (-4)
Bush 16 (-2)
Kasich 13 (-1)
Rubio 12 (+3)
Cruz 11 (+3)

twitter.com/numbersmuncher/status/696835698264039425

But just showing the difference between polls, while Emerson has Rubio in fourth, CNN/WMUR has Rubio in second place in this poll released today:

CNN tracking poll in NH: “No drop in support for Rubio” since debate

twitter.com/costareports/status/696825144745050112

edition.cnn.com/2016/02/08/politics/donald-trump-bernie-sanders-new-hampshire-poll/index.html


#8

Average of polls that include Sunday:
Trump 30.8
Rubio 14.6
Kasich 13.2
Cruz 11.8
Bush 11.2

twitter.com/JayCostTWS/status/696840828543705089

The last 4 are all within the margin of error.


#9

I’m all for Sanders winning NH and the Democratic nomination.

As for Trump, even if he wins NH I hope he only gets, say, 25% or less so the media can go into “he really lost”, “failed to meet expectations” mode.


#10

I still believe that if Biden decides to run, I would ask Kasich to be my running mate. During the weekend I was hearing that Kasich is not well liked because he works a lot with Democrats.


#11

Working with democrats has become a cardinal sin.


#12

Whether we like it or not. We have a 2 party system. Both parties (whether we like it or not, bc we still vote for them) are running government. In order to get stuff done, sometimes we have to cross party lines and negotiate a deal.

I believe that Biden is a great guy, he would be an excellent candidate. Having someone like Kasich in his ticket would bring a lot of solutions.


#13

Isn’t it sad how polarized the political system has become?


#14

It is. Now people want things done and we should want things done. But we have to work with each other.


#15

Biden who is for same-sex marriage and promotes abortion a great guy?


#16

Exactly.


#17

I could turn out to be wrong in this, but I think Kasich will win. The signs are there.


#18

I would celebrate with a conga if he did! It would be a victory for moderate rationalism and bipartisanism in the GOP :thumbsup:


#19

Ugh! If I read anything else about Trump I think I’m going to hurl! Who in their right mind takes him as a serious candidate to lead our county. :nope:


#20

Check out this exit poll data. It will be interesting how well this holds up: twitter.com/esotericcd/status/697209169024303105


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