Forget Inventories – Drilling Cutbacks Will Lead To Much Higher Oil Prices




Does this surprise anybody. That is the way markets work.


The more I read about this most esoteric of subjects, oil reserves, the more I suspect that probably no one really has objectively true knowledge of the reality of the situation. I think the closing paragraph deserves to be emphasized, though:

’Global producers are broadly divesting of exploration activity at the same time as consumers are investing in 90 million new hydrocarbon-consuming vehicles each year. Inventories may be full for now, but nothing in the global drilling data is comforting about future oil supply meeting still-growing consumption.'


Whenever the price reaches the level of profitability, then all of the capped wells that were closed when oil plummeted will be reopened. There is no shortage of oil. America will be the largest producer of oil for at least the next ten years. We will never see oil go so high again under normal circumstances.


Well the earth does have a limited supply of oil, eventually its going to get low. Many intelligent people thought this was going to happen back in the 1970s-80s, the fact we are still pumping out millions of barrels per day is only because we can now access oil in areas they could not in the past, but even that will have its limit, oil is not a renewable resource, once its gone…its GONE.

And something tells me, even when we are getting close to being out, I doubt that fact would be released to the public.


George Will wrote that, at various times, it was predicted the supply of oil would dry up. But people don’t know that electric cars were around a long time ago, circa the early 1900s. Even a gas-electric hybrid had been developed.



America alone has over 1 trillion barrels of oil to be tapped.


Not much left.



No surprise. Cynics look at this and imagine that the oil industry is holding back simply in order to drive oil prices up. A more charitable view is that some reserves are more costly to extract, and those will only be exploited when the price of oil is high enough to make that extraction profitable. Easier (less costly) oil fields will be extracted even when oil prices are low, while more difficult oil fields will be put on hold until the price justifies the effort.


To recover one trillion barrels of oil, how much water will be required? We’ve created hundreds of billions of gallons of wastewater in the past decade or so, which can be reused to a large extent, but which is going to need to be cleaned somehow or disposed of somewhere. Fracking will very likely play a tremendous role in this century’s coming water wars.


There will be no water wars.



Supply and demand is the inescapable truth. The oil industry has always been a boom and bust economy. When it is hot its hot, and when it is not, it is not.

Maybe a lot of that is due to the fact that the oil industry has been politically meddled with more than any other. This has been the case since before OPEC too.


That’s actually categorically untrue, because there are already water wars in Africa. There is also a longstanding series of water wars still raging in Israel, which is why when you travel there the Israeli occupied areas are green and the Palestinian territories are largely desolate. Part of Israel’s malicious policy of abuse is pouring Israeli fecal matter and raw sewage directly onto Palestinian crops and homes, which I would argue is a tactic of war. And of course the Palestinians are forever being shorted on clean drinking, bathing and cooking water, too. Hopefully, desalination will give at least some small respite to the Palestinians, though I’m not holding my breath.

We’re going to see water wars break out in China, too, most likely, considering the state of the Yantze River, and Chinese pollution in general. Now, if you meant there aren’t going to be water wars in the United States of America, you may be right. I hope you are. Still, at this point, the fact remains: scarcity of necessary natural resources inevitably leads to wars. We can’t live without clean water, after all.


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