‘Fort Trump’: US considers permanent base in Poland


#1

Putin must be feeling some serious buyer’s remorse right about now…


#2

‘All your base are belong to us’. I thought Trump didn’t want the US paying for the world’s military? Is this like Bush II’s election promise of a ‘humble’ foreign policy in contrast to Clinton’s nation building?


#3

Poland has said they would be paying for $2 billion of this.

Despite what Trump might say, Mattis and Tillerson before him, have said quite different things, let alone our excellent ambassador to the UN and let’s not forget Bolton.


#4

It probably stems from the harsh realities that a free and independent Europe is going to need US support. It’s the same reason there’s such a major US presence in the Pacific as well. You may not like it, and may imagine that the US can just bundle itself up into its borders like it did in the 1920s and 1930s, but we all know where that lead.


#5

Certainly kudos to Poland for the strong position they have taken to maintain their identity. I admire their fortitude. However, another US foreign military base is not a good idea. 150 countries or some number close to that where the US has a military presence? Where does it stop? I guess it doesn’t. Almost all American politicians can’t seem to help themselves from gravitating further toward a globalist mindset.


#6

I’m all for it. Russia has threatened neighboring countries, Georgia, Ukraine.

Let’s not forget, the Soviet Union helped start World War II in Europe at least, by signing a non-aggression pact with Nazi Germany.

In recent days, their Olympic team has been barred from competing and a spate of poisonings has occurred in Europe as well.

This is about international security.

God Bless President Trump who has positively received the offer.


#7

Seems to me it makes sense. Unlike Germany, Poland is really willing to defend itself. In doing so, it would need U.S. help. I could see merit in drawing down the U.S. facilities and presence in Germany and relocating most of it to Poland.


#8

Yes, we are in England too. It seems to me, troops might be somewhat more effective in Poland.


#9

Might be. But Britain does seem to be a willing partner, militarily. I would be slow to do this.


#10

Yes, I did not mean it like that, for us to move troops from the UK to Poland (I did not make it clear), I mean in a general way, with all of the bases we have, perhaps an efficient use would be in Poland.


#11

But that ignores the larger issue with why the Allied Powers put so much effort in to securing Germany; why the Americans placed such a heavy military presence in West Germany, and why East Germany became a tightly-controlled satellite state of the Soviet Union. The talk of defending both Germanys from the competing Cold War superpowers was a nice cover for the underlying truth that a militarily strong Germany had twice dragged Western nations in to general conflict (and if you include the Franco-Prussian war, that’s three times in the space of 70 years that German militarism reared its head. The underlying theory has been since 1945 to not give Germany any excuse to actually build a military machine of its own.

Let’s remember here that while Germany has been a peaceful nation for decades, and even after Reunification, the fact is that it is one of the world’s pre-eminent industrial powers. It’s almost certain that it belongs to that second tier of states, along with Japan and South Korea, that could, if they wanted, become nuclear powers in fairly short order, certainly far more quickly than, say Iran. Now I’m not trying to impugn Germany, and I can’t see it happening, but I doubt anyone in the mid-1920s really thought Germany would ever be willing to invade its neighbors. Securing Germany’s defense and territorial integrity still seems fairly sound to me. You can make an argument that perhaps it should pay more for that defense, but keeping a strong Western presence in Germany, both as a deterrent against external threat, and also against internal threat, still seems sound reasoning.


#12

I doubt Germans (other than shopkeepers near bases) would care much if the U.S. moved the bulk of its defense forces to Poland.

But it is true that West Germany was a significant military power during the Cold War. I imagine EAst Germany was too, but I don’t know that.

And FRance has had nukes for decades. No particular reason to think Germany is less trustworthy with them than is France.


#13

And as I said, there was no reason to think that Germany was going to light the fuse on another war in the 1920s. Even in the early 1930s there was general sentiment that Germany had been ill-treated by Versailles, which fed in to a somewhat self-serving view that a strong Germany was critical to a healthy Europe. Again, I’m not trying to argue that the Germany of 2018 is anything like the Germany of the Imperial or Third Reich periods. In large part that is because of the significant efforts, particularly in West Germany, to secure German independence. In some respects the entire European Union project is about integrating Europe, and in particular Germany and France, to such a political and economic level that general war between Germany and its neighbors is inconceivable. In the long run, providing the European project doesn’t explode, I fully expect the EU will in effect become a sort “democratic empire”, with its own military.

Of course, that ignores the other reason the US has kept a lot of troops in Germany. The US has gained a significant amount of influence in central Europe, and since the end of the Cold War, in Eastern Europe as well, in no small part because it stands as a concrete barrier against Russian aggression. That influence obviously costs the US a lot of coin, but it does get a significant amount of leverage from that coin, just as it does in Japan.


#14

The problem is that we no longer have the coins, and at some point, life for Americans is going to suffer big-time because our limited national resources are going into garrisoning the world, a world that increasingly neither admires us not seeks our assistance.

Adding yet another country to the nonending list of nations with U.S. garrisons doesn’t seem to be a step in the right direction.

ICXC NIKA


#15

Which is one of the reasons I suggested taking most of the resources out of Germany and positioning them in Poland. If we’re going to spend the money, perhaps we ought to use it to cooperate with people who care to defend themselves but need help doing it. Keep in mind, Poland is willing to pay for it. And the U.S. is more popular in Poland than in Germany.


#16

The East German forces were considered the most professional of all the Warsaw Pact troops, even the Soviet Union considered them the premier troops they could call upon in the event of combat. It was not a huge force by US standards though. Around 140,000 to 150,000 soldiers/airmen/naval personnel if I remember rightly.


#17

I wouldn’t doubt it. I also remember the Soviets were deeply distrustful of the Polish military and planned to intern the whole bunch if the Soviet Union invaded western Europe.

As I recall, the difficulty of accomplishing that plus having a whole nation of Poles across their supply lines was a big part of what deterred the Soviets from a 1980s invasion. The plan required exquisite timing and enormous expenditure of materiel to be successful.


#18

These poisoning are getting a bit silly right now and the reoccurrence of stories around them constantly every time Brexit is rearing its head in the background is beginning to look rather suspicious at times. Also some of them look a bit ludicrous. I don’t doubt that GRU is quite capable of performing a hit, but some of the follow on stories are beginning to look rather like an attempt to keep the narrative going at all costs.

The Russian were barred from the Olympics, they did fine at the World Cup (their national side did far better than it was supposed to) and were the clear leaders at the European Championships, with the UK just a little behind them. Whereas Ireland managed to get one bronze medal, ridiculous. Because the country has never put a sustained effort into providing facilities for sports training.


#19

You may want to look at the following article about Shapiro:-


#20

What, the French built an entire defensive network against a future German invasion in the 20s and 30s. They absolutely were preparing for that outcome, though no one wanted it.


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