This commentary in Zero Hedge that refers to the above article has some more detail.

Closing quote here:

Yes, there will be ups and down ahead, and there will be moments of legitimate optimism.

18 million Americans remain convinced that these layoffs are just temporary and they will have their jobs back in six months. Given this survey, we suspect that number is extremely optimistic.

But nobody is going to be able to stop the process that has now begun, and economic conditions will ultimately become far worse than most Americans would dare to imagine.

There are those posters here who keep thinking it’s going to be mostly okay once we get back to work. I’ve been insisting all along that they were underestimating the damage done to the economy and that we have long needed to return to work to have any chance of ameliorating that damage. Which is now already in motion and will only get worse when states insist on remaining locked down until there’s a vaccine.

There is this list of companies that are already restructuring debt and possibly declaring bankruptcy. Once that is done, there will be no recouping money for them.

I keep saying sure the Fed can print money, but they can’t print the real economy.

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As a small business, once you deplete your reserves staying afloat in these times, how do you hire new employees? There is a lag assuming you are able to restart where you have to refill your ledger with profit before you can hire new employees. Hiring costs money. In my line of work, I have to front 3 bi-weekly paychecks before I see any income from the person I hired. This takes large coffers, or a business line of credit. Good luck getting a business LOC right now; it is near impossible. Hiring isn’t going to just happen - it will take a long time for those businesses that still operate in the first place.

Along those lines, something for everyone to sink their teeth into:

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I have already seen several businesses out of business in the community I live in.
They are empty or they are encosed with a fence. Just the beginning.

This is a terrible consequence of the pandemic. We took to big a blow to consumerism which drives small business.

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You are incapable of making even the most basic of empathetic comments without inserting some agenda. Anyone who hears “52% of small businesses predict failure” and immediately has to insert a commentary-comment about American consumerism proves once again how little they care. Your mind shouldn’t even go there. It’s like seeing a mother in tears over her child being abducted from the local park and saying “that is very sad; lax parenting strikes once again.”

Or on point, seeing the death toll in New York and saying “well, America’s gluttonous, obese lifestyle is finally catching up to them.” There are always time for recriminations and self-evaluations . . . later. . . .

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If you could imagine letting go of the banana, you might see that I am not doing that. Empathy does not mean I need to clutch the banana with you.
I never ask you to give up. You don’t notice but I don’t. I know what it feels like to own a lucrative business. I know your lack of patience well. Your outrage. As if I am taking from you. I am not going to change your mind. I see the grip is to strong.
We will move beyond this moment is all I can tell you. Money comes and goes AND COMES AGAIN. Life and health does not.
Just look at Trump. I still recall the bankruptsy judge putting him on an allowance.
Life and death is exactly the topic appropriate for me to post on.
PS my statement about consumerism is an important one.
Not as some " theory" opposing consumerism either. The opposite. I see loss of something small business needs. I don’t see a way to replace it. And this has a lot to do with my position on policy. I cannot imagine you are not worried about this as well.

But your a TRUMPeteer if I am not wrong. You should be posting Trump’s words that the economy will recover quickly.


I don’t agree about every last little thing. Of course Trump has to believe in the economy. But we extended the lockdown for too long and we are going to pay the price for it. We’re already closer to Great Depression levels of unemployment than we’ve ever been since the 1930’s. Like it or not, the Fed cannot print the economy.

Because the lockdown lasted weeks longer than it needed to in most areas, because the media kept force feeding fear into all, this has had the effect of causing many people to change their habits. Particularly the older set. Perhaps the most vulnerable as well. Maybe permanently? We don’t know, but they have changed for the short term at least.

Malls in restarted areas are still mostly empty. Dine-in restaurants forced to distance their tables apart may still fail for lack of revenue. How about attendance at sporting events and concerts? Everyone knows sunlight and fresh air are are good so we’ll see people outdoors at parks and beaches, but that’s not the same as they’ll consume to the extent they did before. There is a ballroom dance venue not far away from me: while it attracted all ages, more than half the crowd was over 55. How many of those people are coming back? Can that venue survive? Heck, how about the dance studios? Children are resilient, but their parents maybe not so much? Heck, with unemployment where it is, how many fewer people have money to spend?

We’ve discussed in other threads the meatpacking industry, no need to add to that here. Let’s not get into the effects on the commercial and residential real estate markets. Or the travel industry. You know anyone planning to get back on a cruise ship anytime soon? Into an airplane? Hotels, tourist attractions and the like will all suffer.


This is bad for all of us, but really bad for some.

I do see a reduction in “consumerism” spending after this. Some people just won’t have the money as they dig out of debt. Some small businesses won’t make it. Some people will try to save.

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