Gun ownership up, crime down


#1

Last week, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) announced that violent crime decreased 4 percent in 2011. The number of murders, rapes, robberies and aggravated assaults all went down, continuing a pattern.

“This is not a one-year anomaly, but a steady decline in the FBI’s violent-crime rates,” said Andrew Arulanandam, spokesman for the National Rifle Association. “It would be disingenuous for anyone to not credit increased self-defense laws to account for this decline.”

Mr. Arulanandam pointed out that only a handful of states had concealed-carry programs 25 years ago, when the violent-crime rate peaked. Today, 41 states either allow carrying without a permit or have “shall issue” laws that make it easy for just about any noncriminal to get a permit. Illinois and Washington, D.C., are the only places that refuse to recognize the right to bear arms. The Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence did not respond to requests for comment.

Another "highlight" from this story:

Gun manufacturing is the one private-sector industry “doing fine” on Mr. Obama’s watch. Sturm, Ruger & Co. sold 1 million firearms in the first quarter of 2012 - an amazing 50 percent increase from the first quarter of 2011. The jump was so steep that the company stopped accepting orders from March to May to catch up with demand for its products.

Last month, Smith & Wesson announced a firearm-order backlog of approximately $439 million by the end of April, up 135 percent from the same quarter in 2011. Sales in that period were up 28 percent from 2011 and 14 percent over its own predictions to investors. NSSF estimates the industry is responsible for approximately 180,000 jobs and has an annual impact on the U.S. economy of $28 billion.

Mr. Obama could honestly take credit for this jobs program, economic boost and the reduction in violent crime that has followed the spike in gun ownership on his watch. Instead, he’s silent about his greatest positive accomplishment.

washingtontimes.com/news/2012/jun/18/gun-ownership-up-crime-down/

I remember a few years ago the prediction that the failed economy (and it is still failing) would result in a huge spike crime.


#2

[quote="SamH, post:1, topic:288586"]
Another "highlight" from this story:

washingtontimes.com/news/2012/jun/18/gun-ownership-up-crime-down/

I remember a few years ago the prediction that the failed economy (and it is still failing) would result in a huge spike crime.

[/quote]

I cannot believe these figures.
First, speaks "Andrew Arulanandam, spokesman for the National Rifle Association." A biased person. So ends quote number one.

Number 2 quote does not say anything but that buying guns to kill people is a good business and creates jobs.

We do not see the other side of the question. It was muted by the opinion-maker.

It is quite hard to believe by a sensible person that the more guns the less crime. It is jus unbelievable. Coincidence? Yes. Relation Cause-Effect? Impossible.

The USA is one of the most violent countries in the world and it is one where the gun ownership is universal. That is the statistic that matters.

nb 34 -
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate in front of all the European countries.
number 4 murder by firearms
nationmaster.com/graph/cri_mur_wit_fir-crime-murders-with-firearms


#3

It makes sense! Some of the cities where you are allowed to have conceal and carry have the lowest rate of crime. Chicago has the most strict laws on gun ownership and yet it is one of if not the most violent city in the US. Just look at the numbers of the summer of 2008 and that was before the new policy that allows certain people to now keep a gun in their residence. Criminals think twice of robbing anyone if there is a chance they might be packing some heat.

It's illegal to own a gun in Mexico, yet we all know what's been going on down there for past 6 years.


#4

[quote="andremiguel, post:2, topic:288586"]
I cannot believe these figures.
First, speaks "Andrew Arulanandam, spokesman for the National Rifle Association." A biased person. So ends quote number one.

Number 2 quote does not say anything but that buying guns to kill people is a good business and creates jobs.
We do not see the other side of the question. It was muted by the opinion-maker.

It is quite hard to believe by a sensible person that the more guns the less crime. It is jus unbelievable. Coincidence? Yes. Relation Cause-Effect? Impossible.

The USA is one of the most violent countries in the world and it is one where the gun ownership is universal. That is the statistic that matters.

nb 34 -
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate in front of all the European countries.
number 4 murder by firearms
nationmaster.com/graph/cri_mur_wit_fir-crime-murders-with-firearms

[/quote]

On the bolded, where did the article say "buying guns **to kill people **is a good business and creates jobs"? Most people buy guns for hunting and self-defense (protecting themselves from those who do kill people). It is a relative rarity when someone who legally buys and owns firearms murders people. The killers most often get their guns illegally, which of course means, gun laws don't deter them.

Jon


#5

[quote="andremiguel, post:2, topic:288586"]

It is quite hard to believe by a sensible person that the more guns the less crime. It is jus unbelievable. Coincidence? Yes. Relation Cause-Effect? Impossible.

The USA is one of the most violent countries in the world and it is one where the gun ownership is universal. That is the statistic that matters.

[/quote]

25 straight years of coincidences? Can you take those odds to Vegas?


#6

I suspect that the rise in gun ownership and drop in crime have nothing to do with each other.

Might be, drugs are easier to get these days and gangs have settled territoriality disputes.

Jim


#7

[quote="andremiguel, post:2, topic:288586"]
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate in front of all the European countries.
number 4 murder by firearms
nationmaster.com/graph/cri_mur_wit_fir-crime-murders-with-firearms

[/quote]

The US is a North American country - not a European country. By that standard a more accurate comparison would be to Mexico and Canada. Compared to Mexico where they have some of the strictest gun laws in the world I'll take the US crime rate any day.

Gun politics in Mexico have resulted in some of the strictest gun laws in the world. It is in many ways similar to the United Kingdom, except with much more severe prison terms for even the smallest gun law violations. On the other hand, possession of non-military-caliber small arms by citizens is largely a non-issue.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_politics_in_Mexico


#8

[quote="JimR-OCDS, post:6, topic:288586"]
I suspect that the rise in gun ownership and drop in crime have nothing to do with each other.

Might be, drugs are easier to get these days and gangs have settled territoriality disputes.

Jim

[/quote]

Source?


#9

[quote="SamH, post:8, topic:288586"]
Source?

[/quote]

I said, "I suspect."

In other words, it's my opinion.

Jim


#10

[quote="JimR-OCDS, post:6, topic:288586"]
I suspect that the rise in gun ownership and drop in crime have nothing to do with each other.

[/quote]

Just for everyone's edification ;), drops in crime especially occur with aging populations (i.e., the U.S.).

I'd be more likely to believe causation (relative to gun ownership) if that could be established for a particular locale, which was not trending upward in age.


#11

Nice, but correlation =/= causation. Unless it can be proven that increased gun ownership directly results in decreased crime rates, this doesn't mean much. If baseball bat sales also went up, does that mean that there's a direct link between baseball bat sales and crime? Or does it mean more kids played Little League that year?

Does anyone know of any studies that directly link gun ownership to crime rate? I'm not even sure how'd they'd go about doing that...the link between gun sales and crime can't really be directly inferred when there are so many variables that go into crime trends.


#12

[quote="JimR-OCDS, post:9, topic:288586"]
I said, "I suspect."

In other words, it's my opinion.

Jim

[/quote]

You know, Jim, the entire situation of the MacDonals case revolved around the guy wanting to be able to defend himslef against the thugs who had guns, even though Chicago's anti legal gun ownership laws were among the strictest.
The SCOTUS had already said that police are not accountable for preventing crime. Therefore, citizens must be able to do so, using the individual right already enumerated and protcted in the Bill of Rights. So, even if there isn't a link (which I suspect there is), even if the relationship is only correlative and not causative, it still is a good thing.

Jon


#13

[quote="SamH, post:5, topic:288586"]
25 straight years of coincidences? Can you take those odds to Vegas?

[/quote]

Sam, I don't know if I would draw that same conclusion. In many European countries there are gun restrictions. In those countries most murders are committed by means other than by guns. Overall, though, serious crime rates per capita seem to be much lower in Europe than in the U.S. I think it has more to do with society.


#14

[quote="ProVobis, post:13, topic:288586"]
Sam, I don't know if I would draw that same conclusion. In many European countries there are gun restrictions. In those countries most murders are committed by means other than by guns. Overall, though, serious crime rates per capita seem to be much lower in Europe than in the U.S. I think it has more to do with society.

[/quote]

See Mexico. They have as strict of gun laws as most European nations.


#15

I suspect it is wrong.


#16

[quote="Elizabeth502, post:10, topic:288586"]
Just for everyone's edification ;), drops in crime especially occur with aging populations (i.e., the U.S.).

I'd be more likely to believe causation (relative to gun ownership) if that could be established for a particular locale, which was not trending upward in age.

[/quote]

What exactly are you trying to claim?

As criminals get older they quit using firearms? Given their line of work and the physical demands one would think it would be the opposite.


#17

[quote="cjmclark, post:11, topic:288586"]
Nice, but correlation =/= causation. Unless it can be proven that increased gun ownership directly results in decreased crime rates, this doesn't mean much. If baseball bat sales also went up, does that mean that there's a direct link between baseball bat sales and crime? Or does it mean more kids played Little League that year?

Does anyone know of any studies that directly link gun ownership to crime rate? I'm not even sure how'd they'd go about doing that...the link between gun sales and crime can't really be directly inferred when there are so many variables that go into crime trends.

[/quote]

foxnews.com/opinion/2011/09/30/media-silence-is-deafening-about-important-gun-news/

Maybe it isn't causative, but with this type of coincidence, maybe Chicago and D.C. should loosen the restrictions even more.

Jon


#18

[quote="JonNC, post:12, topic:288586"]
You know, Jim, the entire situation of the MacDonals case revolved around the guy wanting to be able to defend himslef against the thugs who had guns, even though Chicago's anti legal gun ownership laws were among the strictest.
The SCOTUS had already said that police are not accountable for preventing crime. Therefore, citizens must be able to do so, using the individual right already enumerated and protcted in the Bill of Rights. So, even if there isn't a link (which I suspect there is), even if the relationship is only correlative and not causative, it still is a good thing.

Jon

[/quote]

Actually they point out how 41 states have "given" people the right to protect themselves in public - most in the last 25 years. I know my state was one of them.


#19

[quote="SamH, post:14, topic:288586"]
See Mexico. They have as strict of gun laws as most European nations.

[/quote]

Gun laws don't mean they don't have guns though. It is my opinion gun laws are worthless if not downright provoking. OTOH, if you don't have guns in the first place...


#20

So why is the crime rate falling in the US?


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