Higher Unemployment Rate on the Horizon

Unemployment is likely to surge above 10 percent over the next few months as millions of “missing” workers return to the labor market.

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Great. I can't wait until unemployment reaches 15%. Imagine the explosion of job creation we'll have then.

I bet they’ll say that those workers who gave up are hopeful that jobs are coming back and are seeking employment again. I suppose if the underemployment rate were to go down (the word escapes me. In paralell or something) while the unemployment goes up temporarily, then that would probably be the case.

I’m just wondering what’s going to happen when the stimulus money runs out and the census ends.

Just wonderful. Now it will be harder for me to find a job.

We are having a jobless recovery in the economy. About 70% of U.S. companies reports good earnings in the first quarter.

Hmmm, where is all of that "hope" and "change" that Obama promised? It seems to be not surprisingly non-existent.

[quote="Holly3278, post:6, topic:198260"]
Hmmm, where is all of that "hope" and "change" that Obama promised? It seems to be not surprisingly non-existent.

[/quote]

Oh, it does exist. He came through on that with flying colors, but not as people expected.

hope = "I hope I will find a job in 2 years"

change = what's left of your unemployment check

Economics and unemployment is a funny beast. Markets fluctuate, as do jobs, and this leads to sags and surges in unemployment google.com/publicdata?ds=usunemployment&met=unemployment_rate&tdim=true Looking at that data you can almost expect a surge coming. The big question is that when it comes will it be short or long? As long as we all got a bit wealthier, the overall state of markets improved during the sag, and we have less artificial inflation than before, then I feel confident that during our next sag we will dip farther than our current sag. The European market is improving with the aid to Greece, which should keep overall investors happier. Hopefully this will translate into more consuming. But this is just how I see the market.

I don’t see how we improve any time soon. I’m just a simpleton, but the way I see it the USA just doesn’t HAVE much of a REAL economy anymore. Once upon a time, we took cheap raw materials, added labor and skill and ended up with valuable products. Buyer got a product with residual value and seller got cash. Total wealth in the market increased.

Nowadays, we have very little creation of tangible new wealth. Most economic activity consists of passing the same dollar back and forth until that dollar ends up overseas in the hands of somebody who IS still making things that have tangible value. Worse, we had a mass hysteria that lasted decades of pretending that our homes were rapidly appreciating assets and proceeded to cash in on that value to buy lots of products built overseas. When the real estate bubble burst and reality intruded, it was disaster.

We can’t get out of that disaster until we start making more valuable things out of less valuable things again. Everything else is support activity (at best) or smoke and mirrors (at worst) that won’t get us anywhere in the end.

[quote="manualman, post:9, topic:198260"]
I don't see how we improve any time soon. I'm just a simpleton, but the way I see it the USA just doesn't HAVE much of a REAL economy anymore. Once upon a time, we took cheap raw materials, added labor and skill and ended up with valuable products. Buyer got a product with residual value and seller got cash. Total wealth in the market increased.

[/quote]

What's ironic is that your feelings implicitly impact the market. So, I think you should start by having a more positive attitude :) We certainly don't do a lot of production anymore, we are very much a service based economy. Knowing this, one can begin finding a place for themselves in our economy.

[quote="manualman, post:9, topic:198260"]
Nowadays, we have very little creation of tangible new wealth. Most economic activity consists of passing the same dollar back and forth until that dollar ends up overseas in the hands of somebody who IS still making things that have tangible value.

[/quote]

Here's a video illustration of passing that dollar youtube.com/watch?v=Ye9T1JOArDs As far as something tangible is concerned, our money is just as tangible as any other. Money is all a matter of perspective, what others think it's worth. This of course will fluctuate depending upon how your economy is doing regardless of what kind of economy you have. You can always buy a lump of silver, gold may be expensive but I think silver will give you the greatest % change over time, if you want something more secure.

[quote="manualman, post:9, topic:198260"]
Worse, we had a mass hysteria that lasted decades of pretending that our homes were rapidly appreciating assets and proceeded to cash in on that value to buy lots of products built overseas. When the real estate bubble burst and reality intruded, it was disaster

[/quote]

True that. I've actually been thinking about what measures we would be able to take to see if another bubble was on the horizon, a pin test if you will. I was thinking something along the line of slowing fed spending and increasing bank regulation, hopefully forcing institutions to be more conservative. Then after a quarter or two of evaluation release the regulations and move forward for another 1 or 2 quarters slowly testing the waters.

[quote="manualman, post:9, topic:198260"]
We can't get out of that disaster until we start making more valuable things out of less valuable things again. Everything else is support activity (at best) or smoke and mirrors (at worst) that won't get us anywhere in the end.

[/quote]

Well, we can do that, but we're already in this service based economy (repairmen, insurance salesman, car salesmen, health care workers, IT programmers and support, transportation workers, etc and etc). To shift away from our current economy might take a while and not leave us in a better position. I would think that if we can specialize enough then we can continue to produce intelligent property, as we have been doing, and make a decent living out of it.

:twocents:

Actually it not like that.

The US Government’s policies (under both parties) is as follows.

High paying jobs are outsourced to foreign lands or foreigners with H1B and L1 visas come here, and take your jobs away.

Low paying jobs are taken by illegal aliens who are paid like a fraction of the minimum wage. Soon they will be rewarded with an amnesty.

In both cases, republicans support this since it is cheap labor for the fatcats, and democrats support it since these people when they become citizens later, vote democrat overwhelmingly.

And what do American citizens get? Unemployment checks for a short time and then starvation. No jobs for you!

[quote="BobCatholic, post:11, topic:198260"]
Actually it not like that.

The US Government's policies (under both parties) is as follows.

High paying jobs are outsourced to foreign lands or foreigners with H1B and L1 visas come here, and take your jobs away.

[/quote]

This can be very true. But sometimes it's not. I am an engineer who does it all. More than once, my job has been threatened by cheap Indian labor. The benefit we have over cheap foreign labor is quality. Americans are innovative, and it's that drive and innovation that will keep us prosperous.

[quote="BobCatholic, post:11, topic:198260"]
Low paying jobs are taken by illegal aliens who are paid like a fraction of the minimum wage. Soon they will be rewarded with an amnesty.

In both cases, republicans support this since it is cheap labor for the fatcats, and democrats support it since these people when they become citizens later, vote democrat overwhelmingly.

[/quote]

That seems like an awfully cynical view. All parties view illegal immigration as an issue, just with different ways to address the issue.

[quote="BobCatholic, post:11, topic:198260"]
And what do American citizens get? Unemployment checks for a short time and then starvation. No jobs for you!

[/quote]

It sounds like we should all just lay down and die. I just can't accept the world view you put forward. Yes, there is a lot of competition in the world, but it is our job to rise to the occasion and do what it takes to thrive.

I am an out of work Software Quality Assurance Engineer. I have 10 years of experience and consulted during that time. I’ve had a LOT of repeat jobs because clients liked my work. So I know what I’m doing.

But lately, the companies don’t care about quality. If they did, I’d have a job :slight_smile:

That seems like an awfully cynical view. All parties view illegal immigration as an issue, just with different ways to address the issue.

Am I wrong on the view? Or simply dismissing it as “cynical” gives you permission not to disprove it. Please, prove me wrong. I need to know why congress continues to allow more H1B and L1 visa holders to come into the country when millions of Americans are out of work. This is a perfect time to suspend those programs, and crack down on outsourcing. That would earn a lot of political points with the electorate. But no, they do nothing. And what about the illegal immigration racket? Again, open borders is the way they handle it.

It sounds like we should all just lay down and die. I just can’t accept the world view you put forward. Yes, there is a lot of competition in the world, but it is our job to rise to the occasion and do what it takes to thrive.

Of course you can’t accept it, you have a different line of work, and are still working.

Lynx,

The “service based economy” is a lie that has been repeated so often that nearly everyone believes it. It doesn’t work and never can. It ignores the reality of entropy. Everything made by humans eventually falls apart and becomes worthless. Cars, appliances, houses, roads, EVERYTHING. While those things last, they have value. When they’ve decayed beyond the point of salvage, they don’t have value anymore.

Historically, our economy grew because we made valuable things out of cheap raw materials faster than they decayed. $1,000 worth of lumber plus a week’s work made $10,000 worth of furniture. The total value of goods in the market went up.

That doesn’t happen in a service economy for the most part. No new value is added to the overall marketplace when the maid cleans your house, the accountant does your taxes or the landscaper cuts your grass. If all we do is provide services for each other, eventually we have to buy replacements for the things that wear out from the people that actually MAKE them. If all those people are overseas and they buy few things from us, we experience a steady loss of total wealth. This is basically the definition of a trade deficit and it is steadily killing the US economy. We’re coasting on the wealth accumulated by our forefathers. Eventually it will run out. And it will not run out evenly. The first victims are already out there.

[quote="BobCatholic, post:13, topic:198260"]
I am an out of work Software Quality Assurance Engineer. I have 10 years of experience and consulted during that time. I've had a LOT of repeat jobs because clients liked my work. But lately, the companies don't care about quality. If they did, I'd have a job :)

[/quote]

Being a SQA is tough nowadays especially if you're representing yourself as a private contractor. Do you have any friends on linkedin who can help? Do you have your resume up on dice? Do you have the contacts from your coworkers at any other companies you have worked before? It's tough for me to give a lot of other help because I don't know your situation, background and skill set.

[quote="BobCatholic, post:13, topic:198260"]
Am I wrong on the view? Or simply dismissing it as "cynical" gives you permission not to disprove it.

[/quote]

Hold on bro, at times i'm a big fan of cynicism, but this is not why I don't believe in your view. To say that all Elephants and Donkeys support illegal immigration for political reasons I don't think is true. First, there are federal laws prohibiting illegal immigration. Second, companies are the ones lobbying for more cheap labor not the political parties (look at who's pulling the strings on the talking heads). Third, sometimes outsourcing is still needed which is why the visas still exist. Lets assume that as a verifier you can review 5 modules a day, but if you outsource the work you can review 10 files a day for the same cost. Unless there is a value added service that comes along with the personal verification, you should outsource the work and be more efficient. A company answers to it's customers, so if they want something cheap and fast then expect outsourcing. In this fashion, everyone becomes better off because products are cheaper.

[quote="BobCatholic, post:13, topic:198260"]
Please, prove me wrong. I need to know why congress continues to allow more H1B and L1 visa holders to come into the country when millions of Americans are out of work. This is a perfect time to suspend those programs, and crack down on outsourcing. That would earn a lot of political points with the electorate. But no, they do nothing. And what about the illegal immigration racket? Again, open borders is the way they handle it.

[/quote]

Refer to above for outsourcing. You have Arizona leading the charge right now against illegals from Mexico. I would agree that more should be done, but what exactly do you want? We already have border patrol and citizens who give up their time to help police the border. Do you want a higher fence? Do you want more border patrol? The illegal immigration problem is difficult to resolve at best.

[quote="BobCatholic, post:13, topic:198260"]
Of course you can't accept it, you have a different line of work, and are still working.

[/quote]

I can't accept it because I enjoy things like eating. I will fight, strive and do what is necessary to support myself and those reliant upon me. I suspect that you do the same.

[quote="manualman, post:14, topic:198260"]
The "service based economy" is a lie that has been repeated so often that nearly everyone believes it.

[/quote]

It isn't a lie if the country really does have a strong service based economy. I don't understand how you think otherwise.

[quote="manualman, post:14, topic:198260"]
It doesn't work and never can.

[/quote]

I think this is what you really meant to say, not that our economy isn't service based.

[quote="manualman, post:14, topic:198260"]
Everything made by humans eventually falls apart and becomes worthless. Cars, appliances, houses, roads, EVERYTHING. While those things last, they have value. When they've decayed beyond the point of salvage, they don't have value anymore.

[/quote]

Right, and part of our economy is then to hire people who fix your "Cars, appliances, houses, roads, EVERYTHING", once again giving them value.

[quote="manualman, post:14, topic:198260"]
No new value is added to the overall marketplace when the maid cleans your house, the accountant does your taxes or the landscaper cuts your grass. If all we do is provide services for each other, eventually we have to buy replacements for the things that wear out from the people that actually MAKE them. If all those people are overseas and they buy few things from us, we experience a steady loss of total wealth. This is basically the definition of a trade deficit and it is steadily killing the US economy.

[/quote]

Put simply, there are many forms of intellectual property and services we can perform to make money. Trying to out produce Asian and South American nations is a waste of time. Lets take your examples from above. Lets say I make 30 $/hr, and it takes me 8 hours to really clean my house. If I pay someone 8$ / hr to do it for me and I decide to work instead, then I just made a net 176$ for the day. This is why companies hire janitors. The accountant has the important role of making sure a company acts fiscally responsible, which is necessary to keep a business on track and making money. If a company makes 10 million dollars and an accountant keeps them from losing just 1% of profit, then if they pay that accountant any less than 100k/yr then that company is saving money. Yes, we eventually have to buy things, but our intellectual property, and the few things we do produce such as food, keep us happy in terms of us making money google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=a7jenngfc4um7_&ctype=l&strail=false&nselm=h&met_y=real_gdp&hl=en&dl=en Notice how we have been increasing our GDP. So, why does our debt increase? The answer is that we just don't live in a fiscally conservative nation. The war on terror and the housing bubble destroyed us financially. Looking at the numbers en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_by_U.S._presidential_terms and skymachines.com/US-National-Debt-Per-Capita-Percent-of-GDP-and-by-Presidental-Term.htm , Bush had a lot to do with putting us here, as well as Clinton to a degree.

Years ago, national productivity was measured as Gross National Product. As I recall the GNP originally measured only the value of the products created. When shysters and Wall Street manipulators realized how much medium term money they could make selling out our country, they first had to mask the effects so the rest of us couldn’t see it. They found their solution by convincing you to include services in the reformulated term “GDP.” I have no idea how to check this suspicion, but I betcha that if you dug up the original GNP definition and restrictions and mapped it over the decades using inflation-equalized values our GNP would have been trending down for DECADES.

It’s true that some activites are BOTH services and traditional value adders. Fixing a broken car turns it from scrap metal back into a valuable asset. But most services are just transfers of existing wealth - passing the same dollar back and forth instead of increasing the overall value of goods in circulation. Don’t get me wrong, services have an important role. But they simply don’t create new wealth. They shouldn’t be included in the measure of a nation’s economic output.

[quote="lynx, post:15, topic:198260"]
Being a SQA is tough nowadays especially if you're representing yourself as a private contractor. Do you have any friends on linkedin who can help? Do you have your resume up on dice? Do you have the contacts from your coworkers at any other companies you have worked before? It's tough for me to give a lot of other help because I don't know your situation, background and skill set.

[/quote]

I have my resume on dozens of sites, and every week I appy for 50-100 job postings a week. Linkedin is not much help. What I see is that companies are hiring developer/QA types. Basically they don't want regular QA's anymore. My experience shows that developers who QA their own code wind up making garbage software. Independence from developers is essential for proper QA. But companies don't think of that. They think they're just saving money, and that's all they care about. Then later, their website lists $5 plane tickets to Hawaii and they take a big bath in red ink.

First, there are federal laws prohibiting illegal immigration.

Which are enforced very weakly. If I park my car illegally, I'll have an orange present on my windshield. If I keep doing that, they'll suspend my driver's license, tow my car, suspend my license plates, sick collection agencies on me, and even sue me. But when it comes to immigration, except for a couple of high-profile busts by ICE a year, nothing is done. No fines against the illegals, no arrests, nothing. We take parking enforcement more seriously than we do public safety.

Second, companies are the ones lobbying for more cheap labor not the political parties (look at who's pulling the strings on the talking heads).

Right, and who passes the laws?

Third, sometimes outsourcing is still needed which is why the visas still exist.

When unemployment was 3-4%, you could make such an argument.
It is not needed when 10%-20% of the American workforce is out of work. C'mon, they cannot find an AMERICAN to QA their work?

The visas exist only because corporate American wants cheap labor, not good labor.

The illegal immigration problem is difficult to resolve at best.

It is imple. Act like illegal immigration is a parking problem. A company hires illegals? Fine them heavily. Like the government doesn't need the money right? They keep it up, and they kick it up a notch. Lawsuits. Give them the proverbial Denver Boot on their front door. If we can enforce parking laws well, immigration is not that much harder.

Suppose a really NASTY virus were to be discovered in Mexico (or Canada) and it is infecting people left and right. People are dying by the thousands. You're telling me they won't have like 20,000-100,000 soldiers on the border with orders to shoot to prevent them from coming here? They'd solve the illegal immigration problem in days. C'mon. The government CAN do it but chooses not to do it.

I can't accept it because I enjoy things like eating. I will fight, strive and do what is necessary to support myself and those reliant upon me. I suspect that you do the same.

Well, I like eating too and am only allowed to eat on unemployment benefits now. For the time being. I don't know what to do once unemployment runs out. And I prefer not to discuss this here.

I just know the US Government's policy is simple: Destroy the middle class. They cannot implement marxism on a large with a vibrant and strong middle class.

Doing some research online and offline at a library should be able to help you out. If you did that I would be very interested to see the results.

I think they can produce new wealth as long as it cost less to produce the intelligent property then to sell it. This seems to be reflected in the GDP. How do you account for the increase in the GDP if all we do is shift from production to service based economies?

People who QA their own stuff do produce a lot of ****, but it’s cheap ****. Have you thought about focusing on companies in the Aerospace and Avionics fields? As per FAA objectives (DO-178B, DO-254), depending upon the project you’re on you need to have levels of independence in your testing, which guarantees someone else is testing and reviewing your code and artifacts.

The difference between you and an illegal? You can pay.

The talking heads do as they’re told, they’re all just tools, and I don’t blame tools I blame the wielders.

As Americans we all have a strong sense of entitlement, but to a job is not something we’re entitled to. It’s something we have to fight for. I agree with you at heart, and would even pay the extra money for American products, but most people want everything cheaper which means companies need to find a way to compete. Lets pretend outsourcing and cheap immigrant labor was stopped tomorrow. Can you imagine the operational costs to re-locate production plants and hire new workers? All the while, prices have to increase at the cost of doing business. People would vote with their wallets, like they do at Walmart.

I don’t know about that all time. I’ve seen some Indian coders churn out miracles in only a few days for less than 1/3 of what most people cost. Outsourcing is a necessary evil, but I agree there might need to be limits.

The difference between you and a company? The company can afford to fight it and tie up the judicial system. However, this is close to what I would do. I would have instituted harsher regulations on foreign contractors. Perhaps so much so, that the cost of not using one would outweigh the paperwork and hassles :slight_smile:

See I like that, but then one or two might make it through and screw us all. How do you feel about a lake of fire? We can import the oily waters around the BP leak, dig a trench around the border, fill’er up and set the thing ablaze. Since it’s in the desert, I think there’s less likelihood of the fire coming back to burn us :slight_smile:

See now this is branching into paranoia. No government official is looking to push Marxism on you. They are however, incompetent on the whole, doing what others tell them to, and pass laws to promote big business. When consumers begin researching company SOP and start making the right choice and not cheap choice, then we will begin the healing.

What a terrible cop-out answer. You know good and well the illegal can “pay” by not being allowed the benefits of living in a country where they don’t belong. That is, if the government would actually enforce those laws. Pretending that monetary fines are the only conceivable punishment for breaking any law here is really disingenuous.

[quote="exoflare, post:19, topic:198260"]
What a terrible cop-out answer. You know good and well the illegal can "pay" by not being allowed the benefits of living in a country where they don't belong. That is, if the government would actually enforce those laws. Pretending that monetary fines are the only conceivable punishment for breaking any law here is really disingenuous.

[/quote]

Maybe you should re-read the original post then my answer. I'm not saying illegal immigration is ok, i'm saying meter maids target people because they're guaranteed money. What money is made creating an investigation to hunt down illegals? Not a lot, not the kind of money that traffic citations will give you immediately. Sadly this isn't a cop-out, this is life :(

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