I’ve had some thoughts about the staying power of Trump. He is unpopular, two thirds of the country don’t like him, however that might not matter at the moment and I think there’s a couple of reasons for this.
- There are definitely people, like my brother, who will freely say he’s incompetent or a one term President. However they take great fun watching him tick off the “establishment”.
- People treat politics as some sort of reality show, have their favorite characters, and love the drama.
- A large number are turned off and don’t care what he does.
- A good many are just plain angry or feel left behind and his bravado appeals to them.
- Some hold their nose and hope that he’ll support their, often conservative, cause.
There’s a few observations I have.
- This “outside” bashing the establishment can only go on so long before it creates serious issues for the country, no matter how good it might feel.
- I think little will get done and at some point a good portion of his support may wither because of this. Why? This President cares more about what makes him look good or fulfills his cavernous need to be revered. Because of this, what few policy positions he has flip flop quite easily. His recent side deal with the Democrats on the debit limit is a great recent example. He berates the Republican Congress endlessly and this causes resentment towards him.
- The Congressional Republicans are so divided on budgetary issues, it’s hard to get any quorum of legislation. It killed any opposition to Obamacare spectacularly and I will almost guarantee you it will be the same with any tax code changes or the budget. Remember budgetary issues in the Senate require a super majority. Republicans don’t have this and probably couldn’t have one even if they did on paper.
Where does this go in 2018 and 2020? I really don’t know. The Democrats still have to find any footing their platform or even vibrant (young) leader like Obama was 10 years ago. With the Republicans I don’t know how long the stick it to the establishment vs likely very little getting done (especially campaign promises) I laid out above will last.