Irish law currently features constitutional protection for the unborn, something that abortion activists have furiously been trying to tear down for decades (including such tactics as raising pro-abortion bills in Parliament in the full knowledge that they are unconstitutional, merely so that they will be reported on by the evening news and remind everyone that they are still pushing for legalised abortion). There is now a Citizen’s Assembly discussing changes to the Law, and it’s feared they will recommend the abolition of our anti-abortion law.
If you have a current government that is pro-same sex marriage or assisted suicide (even mildly, especially if they use some of the same fallacious arguments), abortion is usually not far behind. The best chance for Ireland, and Australia and others, is who we vote for when we get a chance to vote, if they are pro-same sex marriage, there is a good chance they will also be pro-abortion (pro choice) and pro assisted suicide.
I hope Ireland remains against abortion, but given their fall with same sex marriage, I don’t know how long they will last unless there is a change of course. In short, try and make your vote count, that’s the only chance to get a say.
Just look at the U.S., With the Trump & Pence victory, there is a real chance and hope of the turning of the tide back against abortion with pro-life justices that Trump promised he would appoint, if Clinton had won, it would be the opposite, there would be no chance and the abortion path for that nation would have been cemented with her appointments to the Supreme Court, along with Assisted Suicide that was headed up the pipe.
I have been repeatedly saying that you could expect this in the Republic soon virtually since my first days on the forum. It required no great intellect to predict it either sadly (which is good considering mine!) and at some point I expect a referendum which will strip the constitutional protection.
Partly, however there is also a severe feeling of disenchantment with the Church in many quarters. A feeling of betrayal, that will motivate it in part for some. Also some feel the Church has no role to play in influencing the state and as one person put it to me, ‘Needs to be got out, if necessary the same way we got the British out’. Most people don’t hold such extreme views but there is a sizeable minority who are really cynical about the Church at this point.
Also a few particular cases in the last few years have raised the issue up yet again. As it is in any case any woman with enough money simply hops on a plane or ferry over to the UK. My own prediction is that the six counties (what is generally known as 'northern Ireland) will hold on to the ban on abortion after it is legalized in the Republic of Ireland.