I think the mainstream media is a bit misleading with this because look what Rove says:
‘all of the lean Obama states will most likely move to toss up or lean Romney’ and ‘just about all the lean Romney states are Republican safe states.’
How seriously should we believe that the Caroliana’s are a toss up?
What polls is Karl Rove looking at? Because some have over-polled Democrats or Independents which skews the results. A lot of the polls also poll registered voters, and about 40% of registered voters do not vote in an election. Polls done on likely voters (which are more expensive to produce which is why so many polls are done on registered voters), are known to be more reliable, and most polls usually have 9 or 10% of undecided voters, and undecided voters almost always vote against the incumbent and vote for the insurgent.
I think it is bizarre to look at polls now to produce a fairly precise map when the general election has not really started and Mitt is coming out of a tough Republican primary.