🇦🇺 LATEST: Melbourne under curfew as Sydney's contact tracing efforts have so far suppressed potential second wave | OP: Australia seems to be keeping a lid on covid-19 – how is it doing it?

I’ve heard Victoria state has reimposed restrictions after a surge (double digits) in cases this week. I’ll post a link once they have an article typed up.

Fourteen of the 25 new cases reported in Victoria overnight are linked to pre-identified outbreaks.

Seven new cases today link to a family in Keilor Downs, in which cases were reported yesterday, including a primary school teacher. Those cases are across multiple households, bringing the total number of households to 10.

Two of the cases are in aged care homes, three more cases are among the Stamford Plaza hotel outbreak, which is where overseas travellers were quarantined.

One more was linked to the outbreak at H&M Northland, one to an outbreak in a family in Coburg and one to a GP who did not work while infectious.

Victoria’s chief health officer, Brett Sutton , was asked if this situation could be linked to the 30,000 people who attended a Black Lives Matter protest two weeks ago. He said it was not.

I don’t think it does. Clearly we have had some individuals who have attended [the march] … but most of the detail we are getting in the last few days of cases are these large family outbreaks without any connection to Black Lives Matter.

Some of them are very large, they have reached more than a dozen individuals and they cross multiple households and there are a number of other close contacts. That is why the actions we are announcing today are really necessary, because some of these households we have another 50 close contacts who are being followed up, and they are all potentially going to be cases in the next couple of weeks.

This comes after 25 cases were recorded in the state on Saturday and 19 on Sunday.

Gatherings have also decreased to 10 people outdoors.

:wink: Considering the cops gave up on the Peelian tradition of politically neutral enforcement, which has been adopted in our Commonwealth realms, why bother with this restriction?

The state of Victoria is driving the spike in Australia. 33 cases. It’s hard to see why this state is struggling so badly (by their standards) and lost control when the most populated state New South Wales has been stable. Both test rigorously and both have international cities.

It’s getting worse in Victoria state. The other states and territories are stable with single digit new cases or none for over a month now.


Victoria:

New South Wales (most populous state)

My headline: “Sexual immorality may have led to Melbourne coronavirus crisis”

Premier Daniel Andrews has announced a judicial inquiry into the state’s management of hotel quarantine, to be headed by Jennifer Coate, a former royal commissioner, after a number of cases of coronavirus in late May and early June were linked to infection control breaches.

Mr Hunt said if the reports were correct that some security staff have been having sex with people in hotel quarantine or that families were allowed to go between rooms to play cards, those responsible should be punished.

"There is a desire that, blazing like a furnace, cannot be quenched until it is slaked; there is the man who lusts for his own flesh: he will not give up until the fire consumes him; to a fornicator all food is sweet, and he will not weary of it until he dies. " ~ Sirach.

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Victoria:


Queensland:

Western Australia:

South Australia:

Tasmania:

Northern Territory:

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It’s just getting worse in Victoria as the rest of Australia including the most populous state are faring well.


That uptick for New South Wales, the most recent populous state, was due to a reclassification of cruise ship passengers from March. Otherwise, they’ve pretty much flattened their curve like the rest of Australia except Victoria.

The mandatory quarantine system, in which returned travellers [non-Australians banned from entering Australia] were isolated in hotels for two weeks, was introduced on March 28.

Queensland is currently the only state to charge returned travellers for their stay and Victoria has stopped accepting flights altogether.



Australia has shown you can do everything right but a few breaches (like in Victoria state) and you lose control.
As of July 17:
Cumulative


New South Wales

Victoria

Queensland

Western Australia

South Australia

Tasmania

Australia Capital Territory

Northern Territory

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Australia)

https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-new-south-wales-records-18-new-cases-overnight-crossroads-hotel/c6a0ed4f-cb38-466c-beee-b035203d51b9

This is problematic as South Australia has practically eradicated the virus and a cluster partly behind the increase in New South Wales, the most populous state, was connected to an interstate traveller from Victoria, the second most populous state.


Whole of Australia: the peak was 460 new cases in March (missing the latest data).


Victoria, second most populous state (includes the latest data):

New South Wales, most populous state (includes the latest data):

I point out population because having a large population doesn’t automatically mean your vulnerable nor having a smaller population mean you’re automatically safe.



NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has told News Breakfast that while the state’s COVID-19 infection numbers are increasing, genomic testing seems to show the virus comes from a single source, making it easier to trace.

In neighbouring New South Wales, the most populous state:

A young child is among 19 new coronavirus cases in New South Wales, Health Minister Brad Hazzard announced on Thursday.

Hazzard says the entire state needs to be on “high alert and not complacent”.

There are now 56 cases associated with the Crossroads Hotel cluster, 46 cases related to the Thai Rock restaurant and eight linked to the Batemans Bay Soldiers Club.

“While most cases have been linked to known clusters, community transmission continues and NSW Health is calling on people across the state to redouble their efforts to stop the virus spreading,” NSW Health said.

Though New South Wales is currently stable, neighbouring Queensland state is signalling it will reimpose some border restrictions:

[New South Wales Premier] Berejiklian said any businesses found in breach of restrictions “will have the book thrown at them”.

Liquor and Gaming NSW had undertaken 1,311 compliance checks and had issued three fines — to the Golden Sheaf pub in Double Bay, The Star casino in Pyrmont and the Auburn Hotel in Western Sydney.

“I’ve got no hesitation in naming and shaming — if there is an organisation that is blatantly flouting the law and public health at risk, I will be the first to name and shame and condemn them,” Mr Dominello said.

Unlike most countries, Australian subnational jurisdictions except the two most populous states, closed their borders to each other during the pandemic. E.g. Australians from one state crossing to another with an acceptable reason for interstate travel were usually forced to quarantine at specific hotels for 2 weeks before being allowed to roam freely in another state.

“Our state, without a doubt, is one of the safest places in the world right now,” [Tasmania’s Premier] said.

“In public health’s view, so are South Australia, the Northern Territory and Western Australia.”

Tasmania won’t its borders to Victoria (a terrible second wave with hundreds of daily new cases for the last few weeks), Queensland (going weeks without any news cases but they reopened their border with New South Wales) and New South Wales (around 10 - 20 daily new cases for the last few days).

Individuals can be fined $1,000 for breaking COVID 19 restrictions, which may escalate to being arrested and possibly jailed after multiple breaches.

NSW Police Minister David Elliott also put out a warning for businesses to take the coronavirus rules seriously.

“There are no three strikes when it comes to a pandemic.” Mr Elliot said, adding that hospitality venues would receive a $5000 fine “immediately” if they breached public health laws.

“If they do the wrong thing again they will be closed for one week, and if they do the wrong thing a third time they could be closed for up to a month,” Mr Elliott said.

NSW recorded 15 new cases of COVID 19 overnight, including eight connected to the Thai Rock restaurant cluster.

New South Wales is struggling with a few serious clusters and seems to be suppressing new ones and containing the existing ones. So according to some protesters it’s a great time to become like Victoria and end up with some of the strictest restrictions in the world.

A group of Indigenous doctors last week called for Tuesday’s protest to be abandoned, fearing the health consequences of a gathering during the second wave of the coronavirus outbreak is too risky.

Of the ten new deaths, seven were reported in males aged between 40 and 89 and three women in their 70s and 80s.

The national death toll is now at 155, with 71 of those occurring in Victoria.

Black Lives Matter Australia want New South Wales (light blue curve) to end up like Victoria (dark blue curve).


Or even worse like America.


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