That’s a start. Though some ballots will not be opened until the day after the election. I would add a week to that. Therr are also some court challenges that may resukt in some ballots not being counted.
The undersampling is a big factor, and a good indication of how things will go is the early voting results. Democrat ballots are ahead, but not in nearly enough numbers to counteract the Republican votes that will come on election day.
Aside from that, the fact that most people are as happy or happier with their economic situation (even considering COVID) as compared to 2016 is a big help factor for Trump.
And then you have Biden’s flubs with the fracking comments, as well as the recent PA riots. Biden is going to have a very uphill battle attempting to keep hold of battleground states.
My understanding is Ohio has been likely to go Trump all along. Ohio is generally a red state anyway and I’ve heard from people I know there who weren’t real happy with the plethora of Trump support they were finding everywhere outside the urban areas.
Pennsylvania must be the big battleground as Trump did something like 6 rallies this week there and he has at least 1 or 2 more there next week, and even Joe came out for a couple appearances there.
I watched some vid of the Trump rally today in Reading. Apparently there were a lot of folks who couldn’t even get in because it was too full, even though it was outside and like 40 degrees out.
I don’t think so. I think if trump wins he’ll actually carry the popular vote this time. I was in California in June and I saw so many trump flags/stickers/yard signs. And I was in SoCal. I never expected to see that there.