Latest Polling: Trump Up 11 Points in Ohio — Five Points in Battleground Florida — Up in Arizona

Latest Polling: Trump Up 11 Points in Ohio — Five Points in Battleground Florida — Up in Arizona

By Jim Hoft
Published October 31, 2020 at 10:25am
399 Comments

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As they do EVERY election cycle the polls are starting to surge to the Republican candidate after months of ridiculous polling.

Author Ann Coulter wrote a book on how Democrats use far left polling to disenfranchise Republican voters.

They did it again this year . . .

TRENDING: WATCH: Joe Biden Announces He Will Lead an Effective Strategy to Mobilize ‘Trunalimunumaprzure’ . . .

Spelling correction mine.

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Biden Supporters…

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The polls are all over the place. However, only poll that matters is the one we’re going to take on Tuesday.

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68 million people have already voted.

There is going to be record turnout. That favors Democrats.

These “We’re winning in the polls” threads a few days before the election are hilarious. Forget the polls and wait three days.

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By contrast, Nate Silver appears to be doubling down on pro-Biden predictions.

A lot of the big name pollsters and statisticians are going to be in for a rude awakening if (as I predict) Trump blows Biden out of the water.

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That’s a start. Though some ballots will not be opened until the day after the election. I would add a week to that. Therr are also some court challenges that may resukt in some ballots not being counted.

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Do you predict this based on undersampling of specific demographics or wishful political thinking?

The undersampling is a big factor, and a good indication of how things will go is the early voting results. Democrat ballots are ahead, but not in nearly enough numbers to counteract the Republican votes that will come on election day.

Aside from that, the fact that most people are as happy or happier with their economic situation (even considering COVID) as compared to 2016 is a big help factor for Trump.

And then you have Biden’s flubs with the fracking comments, as well as the recent PA riots. Biden is going to have a very uphill battle attempting to keep hold of battleground states.

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My prediction, if trump wins, he wins huge. If Biden wins, it’s a slim margin.

Polls are meaningless.

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I’ve read a lot about pollsters learning from 2016 and 2018 and accounting for under sampling this year. We’ll have to see.

Unfortunately, only 9% of the people in a recent Gallup poll think the economy is the most important issue.

from Gallup:

Bottom Line

Trump began 2020 with the highest approval ratings of his presidency, but as the coronavirus pandemic wore on and racial strife intensified nationwide, Americans’ approval of the president declined among nearly all subgroups except for his most loyal supporters. He is now in the homestretch of the campaign with a relatively low overall job approval rating, a measure which has historically proven to be closely tied to chances of winning a second term.

Momentum seems to be on his side. Remember, a lot of people are voting against Trump, not for Biden.

It’s becoming a pattern. More people voted against Hilary than for trump in my opinion in 16. I did not vote for trump in the primary.

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@PaulinVA I havent looked at Gallup. Here are a few others that update daily.

Scroll down to the polls graphs in the articles.

Also

Also

Here are the latest betting odds, ( they are very sensitive to swings and changes)

https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020-2982545

Whose odds will shorten the most in the next few days due to the polls?

My understanding is Ohio has been likely to go Trump all along. Ohio is generally a red state anyway and I’ve heard from people I know there who weren’t real happy with the plethora of Trump support they were finding everywhere outside the urban areas.

Pennsylvania must be the big battleground as Trump did something like 6 rallies this week there and he has at least 1 or 2 more there next week, and even Joe came out for a couple appearances there.

I watched some vid of the Trump rally today in Reading. Apparently there were a lot of folks who couldn’t even get in because it was too full, even though it was outside and like 40 degrees out.

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Big popular margin or big electoral margin?

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Both possibly, but definitely electoral.

If Trump wins, the likely scenario will be another “lose the popular vote but win the electoral vote” situation.

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Popular margin is meaningless. We don’t have a popular vote.

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I don’t think so. I think if trump wins he’ll actually carry the popular vote this time. I was in California in June and I saw so many trump flags/stickers/yard signs. And I was in SoCal. I never expected to see that there.

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