Macron seen as beating Le Pen in French presidential runoff - Figaro/LCI poll


#1

uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france-election-poll-macron-idUKKBN1650P8

**Macron seen as beating Le Pen in French presidential runoff - Figaro/LCI poll

Independent candidate Emmanuel Macron will beat far-right leader Marine Le Pen in a French presidential runoff with 58 percent of the vote versus 42 percent, according to a Figaro/LCI poll on Sunday.

The pollsters said Le Pen will lead in the first round with 27 percent of the vote, up 2 percent from the previous poll, closely followed by Macron with 25 percent, up 4 percentage points from last poll.

Macron has been lifted in polls by the alliance with centrist Francois Bayrou, leader of the MoDem party.

If the results remain as shown in the polls, it would mean that neither candidates of France’s two major parties, the ruling Socialists, nor conservatives The Republicans, will make it to the second round, the pollsters said in a statement.

The Republicans candidate Francois Fillon is seen as taking third position in the first round of the vote with 20 percent, while Socialist Benoit Hamon is fourth with 14 percent, the polls showed.**


#2

And a related poll just out today:

dnaindia.com/world/report-macron-would-beat-le-pen-in-french-presidential-runoff-poll-2262017-80647-pm-2335347

**Independent French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron would beat far right leader Marine Le Pen in the second round of the French presidential election with 61 percent of the vote, according to an Odoxa/Dentsu-Consulting poll on Sunday.

The pollsters said Macron had been buoyed by the alliance announced this week with centrist politician Francois Bayrou, which has enabled him to move ahead of conservative candidate Francois Fillon.

The poll showed Macron would beat Le Pen in the runoff with 61 percent of the vote versus 39 percent.

Le Pen will lead in the first round of voting with 27 percent, followed by Macron with 25 percent and Fillon with 19 percent, the poll showed.**


#3

It’s too early to tell. As long as Macron doesn’t do anything stupid or avoid a surprise office raid by the police that have hit his opponents and clarify what he actually stands for, France will stop another Le Pen from entering the Elysee Palace.


#4

As long as reds keep rioting, it’ll increase Le Pen’s chances.


#5

Please forgive my ignorance. How many party’s are there in France? What does each party stand for?


#6

Were these polls conducted by the same . . . corporations . . . as the polls that predicted Hillary Clinton’s victory?


#7

France has many political parties:

Presidential election:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2017

Legislative election:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_legislative_election,_2017


#8

Looking back, they did get the popular vote count relatively close to actual results. The issue may have more to do with distribution across the states but I’m not too sure of what the methodologies used were.
The gap between Macron and Le Pen is large enough in the polls and it’s a binary choice so it’s safe to assume Macron will win at this point in time. You couldn’t say that for the US during the last few months during campaign or even the lead up to the UK’s EU referendum vote because those margins were narrow.


#9

Yeah, I spent the last couple months before Nov. 8 screaming at the TV, “National polls don’t matter; it’s the states that count!!!” However, the TV didn’t listen :stuck_out_tongue:

I think that if I were a French voter with the politico-religious beliefs that I actually have, I would be thinking the same thing that the real “I” was thinking last fall – “Whom can I vote for and not have to wear a gas mask?”


#10

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