I pray that he is right for the sake of us all
He might only be whistling in the dark, but it’s encouraging to hear at least that.
I am not an economist in any sense of the word. But it would be my belief, long held, that 2009 is not going to see anything but perhaps some “technical” signs of bottoming out. I am guessing that the entire first half of 2009, at minimum, will be a big writeoff.
Second half of 2010 may show some improvements that we can really see.
People can say all they want about “trickle down” economics and what a big failure they think it is. But it seems to me the not-ver-thinly-veiled hostility this administration has toward those who really do control investment decisions in the private sector is simply going to continue stifling real investment where it most counts. I say that, and I’m not a person at the top, by any means.
I don’t mean those economic speculators of massive wealth with whom Obama has surrounded himself. I mean those who are really in front of the target; those who are “on the way up” through their production of real goods and services.
I realize “bottom up” thinking has a lot of romantic appeal. But what does it really mean to the economy when, e.g., people get a $13/week tax break, and food stamps get expanded and more people get to throw government subsidies at institutions of higher education notwithstanding that oftentimes those gifts to academia do nothing for the students but give them something to put on an otherwise illiterate resume?