Nate Silver's new Senate forecast could terrify Democrats into action


#1

Link: csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/2014/0323/Nate-Silver-s-new-Senate-forecast-could-terrify-Democrats-into-action

Polling expert Nate Silver, who predicted the 2012 Presidential race down to the tight gap in Florida, has signaled that democrats may be in danger of losing the Senate in 2014.

From the article:

He has predicted that Republicans are better than even odds to take back the Senate this November.

At first blush, that might seem like something for Republicans to celebrate. Control of the Senate is the Grand Prize up for grabs in this fall’s midterm elections. Few doubt that Republicans will hold on to the House, and most also acknowledge that Republicans are likely to cut into the Democrats’ 55-to-45 majority in the Senate. (There are actually only 53 Senate Democrats, but both Senate Independents side with the Democrats.)


#2

My Current Outlook for relevant races on Election Day 2014:

BOLD = Currently held by GOP

Safe GOP:

ME, SD, MT, WV, MS

Leans GOP:

GA, KY, NC, AR, LA

Toss-up:

AK, CO, IA, MI, NH

Leans Dem:

MN, NM

Solid Dem

IL


#3

I largely agree with Nate Silver. Walsh is beginning to underpoll where he should be in MT, which means that MT (for now) joins SD/WV in the “almost complete wash-out” category for Democrats at the moment. I don’t agree with Silver on AR (I think it’s a toss-up) or MI (I think it’s a leans Dem), but certainly, the Republicans having 3 Leans/Heavily Republican seats that are Democratically controlled at the moment and having another 3 tossups gives them a good chance to take over the Senate, especially in a midterm.

It will be interesting to see GA and KY play out though. If Gingrey or [especially] Broun win the GOP primary in GA, I’d put the race at Leans Dem. If any of the other 3, especially Handel, wins the GOP primary, I’d put it at Favored Republican. And McConnell is doing horribly in KY at the moment, and I’d put KY at Leans Dem if Bevin wins the GOP primary over McConnell.

The problem Republicans face at the moment is that ObamaCare has had its biggest success stories in KY and AR, two of the states they need to win to take over the Senate.


#4

No way. You keep overvaluing GOP chances in MN, CO, and NM. They don’t even have a reputable candidate in Minnesota at the moment because they view it as impossibly gone. The actual position looks more like:

Safe GOP: SD, WV

Favored GOP: MT

Leans GOP: GA

Tossup: AR, KY, LA, NC

Leans Dem: AK, MI

Favored Dem: CO, IA

Every other race is “Safe” for the incumbent Party. If the GOP swept tossups and better, they would take over the Senate by exactly one seat.


#5
  1. The categories listed are mine, not Silver’s.

  2. ObamaCare is another failed progressive policy where those who are subsidized like it and those who have to pay and get less health care hate it.

It will only make things worse for everyone in the long run.


#6
  1. My apologies then.

  2. Any policy discussions on ObamaCare (of which I of course disagree with you anyway) are irrelevant to the article. The article is discussing the political science. And ObamaCare has shown huge successes in AR (which exempted itself by being the only state to apply for exemption with its own health care law) and KY (which, through strong support by its Governor, has drastically improved coverage). It thus is not the potent Democrat-attacker that it is in states where GOP governors have directly hampered it (such as MS).


#7

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