New Orleans keeps wary eye on Gustav

Oh my, I hope this is not a repeat of 2005

“This is a serious storm,” Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal said Tuesday. “This could be a major storm. We anticipate it being in the southern Gulf in the next few days. We have to take it seriously.”

State and local officials planned for possible evacuations, and the National Guard was on standby.

New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin cut short his trip to the Democratic National Convention in Denver, Colorado, to return to New Orleans, his office said Wednesday.

Full story here.

And here is the 5-day projection cone for the storm.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0708W5_sm2+gif/203214W_sm.gif

For more info on this, here is the National Hurricane Center forecast site for Gustav.

nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?5day#contents

I am praying for the Gulf Coast and relieved that I am in Oregon. Up here we only have to worry about the occasional volcanic eruption.

And now this.

Louisiana governor declares emergency ahead of Gustav

cnn.com/2008/US/weather/08/27/gustav.nola/index.html?iref=mpstoryview

Well, I guess they want to get it right this time. I just hope whatever the landfall forecasts are, they are accurate. Needlessly evacuating people puts lives and property at great risk. Not to mention the expense.

And it only takes a couple of ‘false’ alarms and people start ignoring the warnings again.

I think he is waiting until Friday to make it official. By then, they should know more. The strength of the storm makes a big difference. If I remember right, the stronger the storm, the more of a counter clockwise path it will make. The weaker, the straighter or clockwise path.

Here is the current wind projections from the NHC.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0708T_sm2+gif/203214P_sm.gif

It is almost certain to be a hurricane and it may well category 3 or higher.

For a tropical storm, it covers a fairly large area. As they organize and spin up, hurricanes sometime shrink a but. However, when they start spread out like this, they cover more water and can absorb more heat and water. Temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are unusually high this year.

This is true, but there are many other influences. For example, the large low pressure system associated with tropical depression Fay can draw another storm toward it. However, I believe it is too far away to have an impact. A high-pressure system will tend to push it away.

The guys who are not smart enough to forecast hurricanes go into the less mentally demanding field of rocket science.

I’m down here in southern Alabama and we’ve been there, done that many times (Ivan, Katrina…) The “five day cones” can be notoriously off, as there are so many variables. Three days out is about the limits of what can be predicted with any confidence, it seems, and even that is subject to change. There is a high over Florida right now that appears to be steering Gustav to the west, but that is expected to dissipate. We’re making our preparations, my husband, a TV newscaster, has had to cancel an out of town trip this weekend, and we’re praying hard, as we have a little place a few hundred feet from the Gulf we’ve been trying to sell. As if the market hasn’t been bad enough, without a hurricane taking aim!

Prayers, please!

As a native New Orleanian and resident of Baton Rouge for the last thirty years, I would far prefer to see the city evacuated needlessly than to ever, ever go through the anguish of these last three years.

The media only presents to the rest of the nation human interest stories. New Orleans is not rebuilt. Most of it lies in ruins. My cousin lives in Chalmette (a suburb southeast of NO) and has only just begun to rebuild his home. The third anniversary of Katrina is Friday.

The idea of another Category 3 hurricane hitting southeast Louisiana scares the living daylights out of me - and the Governor as well. I don’t have any faith whatsoever in the U.S. Corps of Engineers who say that the levees have been rebuilt. I was 13 (almost 14) years old when Betsy hit in 1965. Katrina was not supposed to happen. Yet she did. And now the Corps blythely says that “all is well”. “Hello, I’m here from the government and I’m here to help you!”

We can’t control our politicians. Governor Jindal has been pro-active rather than reactive. I don’t think you’ll see him with a wide-eyed “deer in the headlights” look. Lessons learned from Katrina.

But I ask your prayers for us. We have not recovered from Katrina/Rita and I don’t mean just NO. Southwest Louisiana got devastated (never made the news). The Mississippi Gulf Coast got lauded for its “recovery” (meaning the casinos). It looks nothing like it did before Camille (1969) and Katrina finished the rest off.

I’m frustrated because the media is not giving all the rest of you an accurate portrait. For all the Brad Pitts and the Musician’s Villages in the Ninth Ward, there are a whole bunch of people in Lakeview who are reconstructing on their own with no help from the government. I spent the first five years of my life in Lakeview and I thank God that the Archdiocese of NO kept the parish in which I was baptized and attended Primer opened.

Very accurate picture. I was there in May and the lake front is still in ruins. The Garden District is full of construction. I cannot image what other parts of the city are like. I was on the Westbank and there were still roofs covered with plastic. I will pray for that beautiful city. May God turn the hurricane in another direction and give NO a break.

I pray for New Orleans, but there is something fundamentally wrong with living below sea level. The commercial district (8 feet above) will survive, as it did before…for the rest of the city…God Knows.

John

i too will pray for the big easy, largely for their saftey but also because i dont want to see another crime spike in houston if they evacuatee again.

Amen to that. It’s much better to be safe than sorry. My Brother & SIL live in Slidell, which had alot of devastation, too. They evacuated for Katrina & they will evacuate for Gustav in a heartbeat if he heads their way.

Updated track. Looks like the storm may head a bit to the west of NO. being on the east side of the eye wall is the worst place to be because the ground speed of the winds is the sum of the wind speed plus the forward speed of the storm, which rotate counter clockwise.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0708W5_sm2+gif/144513W_sm.gif

It is moving at only 4 knots right now as it moves over Jamaica, but is expected to pick up speed in two days or so. That does not help the people in Jamaica who are getting dumped on now.

Already have. I thought of you last night when responding to an unrelated thread. We, too, are keeping a close eye on this thing. I have to evacuate my family a little early so I can go to work if it move westerly toward Texas.

Since the storm is beginning to drift west, Texas may get hit. Texas is well witin the strike zone cone.

I am praying for all who are affected by this storm.

LOL, I’m sure if the computer could have a say, it might prefer the rocket science too.

:whistle: Here in San Antonio they are already preparing in case
!.We get people from New Orleans here, or two, it moves towards Texas more and people from Houston to Corpus Christi have to evacuate depending on how this thing moves.
Local news stations have mentioned the new Orleans Saints might come here if Gustav targets New Orleans.They practiced in San Antonio when Katrina hit,so who knows.Just wish this thing would disappear completely off the map.

I find it curious that I am told to get rid of my car because of global warming forecast 20 years from now but they can’t tell me where a hurricane is going to hit two days from now

Ah the marvels of Victorian era technology. The pumps that allowed the swamps and marshes to be drained are still operational after over a hundred years. No one had any idea a hundred years ago that parts of NO were a “saucer” under sea level anymore than sixty years ago when my folks moved out to almost Kenner that the ground beneath their home would dry out (see said pumps) and cause foundation problems. One could easily ask why was San Francisco rebuilt after the 1906 earthquake.

I would also like to point out that Holland is below sea level and has been below sea level for over a thousand years. They have the technology and the will to keep the North Sea at bay. We have the technology but lack the will to stop coastal erosion and rebuild the swamps and marshes south and east of NO which provided a tremendous amount of protection against the massive storm surges in front of an approaching hurricane.

The Ninth Ward flooded in September of 1965 during Hurricane Betsy. The people of New Orleans were assured by the Corps of Engineers that it would not happen again.

Technology and “great ideas” often don’t pan out the way they were supposed to. The Mississippi River Gulf Outlet which was hailed as a great engineering feat when I was a teenager in the 60’s turned out to give us this:

http://www.saveourlake.org/images/index/surge.jpg
This photo was taken from a security camera at a New Orleans power plant at Paris Rd. where the MRGO and Intercoastal waterway meet. Those pylons support the bridge which crosses the waterway. That’s a 30 foot high wall of water you are looking at funneled up the MRGO by Katrina.

My great-aunt lived not far from this shot in 1965 during Betsy. The MRGO contributed then (but not as badly). She had five feet of water.

My point: New Orleans has been around since 1718. Can we just dismiss historical development because it is “fundamentally wrong with living below sea level”?

I can’t believe some of the people from New Orleans are "evacuating this was along I-10.:eek: the road was choked up and stop and go. What the heck? Do they not know which way the ocean is? Now if they have to evaucuate Beaumont or Houston in the next few days we will have the extra NO cars on the road to contend with. I think it is great to open shelters and open arms to people, but this is just the wrong time with so much uncertainty to be sliding people along the coast.

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