Political science professor forecasts Trump as general election winner


#1

A professor of political science at Stony Brook University has forecasted that Donald Trump has a minimum 97 percent chance of winning the general election as the Republican nominee.

Professor Helmut Norpoth’s forecast presentation took place Monday evening in the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan, which was organized by the Stony Brook Alumni Association.

“You think ‘This is crazy. How can anything come up with something like that?’ ” Norpoth said “But that’s exactly the kind of equation I used to predict Bill Clinton winning in ‘96, that I used to predict that George Bush would win in 2004, and, as you remember four years ago, that Obama would win in 2012.”

sbstatesman.com/2016/02/23/political-science-professor-forecasts-trump-as-general-election-winner/


#2

The Professor was interviewed on Fox & Friends: video.foxnews.com/v/4775264757001/political-science-professor-odds-of-trump-winning-97-99/?playlist_id=930909787001

Claims on ‘Fox & Friends’ his statistical model has correctly predicted every election for 104 years


#3

I really hope that Trump wins the GOP nomination. There’s not a chance in hades that he would win the Presidential Election.


#4

Those who are angry with the way the WH has been ran and also with the RNC are not going to change their mind and decide to vote for Rubio. I just don’t see that as being consistent with Trump followers. The only possible other candidate is Cruz for them, imho. Perhaps those on the border may be influenced one way or the other. We shall see shortly. I think there has been a large push by the RNC to kick Trump to the curb along with Catholic Vote among others. We’ll have to see how it translates but with this movement I don’t see it having a major impact but perhaps with Cruz in Texas.


#5

I believe he will handily beat either of the Democrat contenders. It is sad that the Denmocrat Party rigged their nominating process to nominate such a deeply flawed canidate as Hillary,


#6

**The Donald’s Odds Against Hillary ** - Pat Buchanan

excerpt:

First, there is the strangely shrunken and still shrinking Democratic leadership base. As the Daily Caller reports, under Obama, Democrats have lost a net of more than 900 state legislature seats, 12 governors, 69 U.S. House and 13 Senate seats. Such numbers suggest a sick party.

Republican strength on Capitol Hill is again as great as it was in the last years of the Roaring ’20s.

Second, due to Trump, viewership of the Republican debates has been astronomical – 24 million for one, 23 million for another.

The turnout at Trump rallies has been unlike anything seen in presidential primaries; and what’s more, the GOP voter turnout in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada set new records for the party.

Yet voter turnout for the Clinton-Sanders race has fallen, in every contest, below what it was in the Clinton-Obama race in 2008.

Bernie’s millennials aside, the energy and excitement has been on the Republican contest, often a sign of party ascendancy.

No candidate ever has been drawing these huge crowds on such a consistent basis. Or it appears that way at least.


#7

I was skeptical about this professor but after watching the video of him on Fox, he seemed very credible. It’s a 3 minute long video. He does talk about details of his predicting model.

video.foxnews.com/v/4775264757001/political-science-professor-odds-of-trump-winning-97-99/?playlist_id=2114913880001#sp=show-clips


#8

Two responses: first, I believe your second sentence will be proven wrong. Mainly because all of his worst flaws are stuff that Hillary can’t call him out on, because her OWN closet is so full of skeletons.

Second, I assume you’re saying that if Trump were the Pub nominee, you’d vote for Hillary. I’m surprised any Catholic could vote for an unabashedly pro-choice candidate like Hillary.


#9

Well said, if I vote for an Obama or a Clinton, I might as well be voting for some of the more sundry figures of history indeed.


#10

The Donald is shaking in his golf shoes at the prospect of facing Hillary Clinton!


#11

He probably will be the winner, after all Obama won. They both say the same thing, I’ll make things better and I’m different. They also both said they support a wall on the southern border. I mean shoot this is the same American public that probably watched Trumps reality tv show.


#12

:thumbsup: I agree.


#13

I don’t know how Trump wins when so many will refuse to vote for him, and just don’t believe moderates and Democrats will vote for him.


#14

Hillary is going to be shredded by the end of the General Election.

She can’t win.


#15

That is what many people said after the first four years of the Obama Presidency.


#16

I don’t think that the Democratic Party rigged the process. It’s more to do with other viable candidates sitting this one out figuring they have little chance (a la 2012 with the Republicans and Governor Romney). Of course, that didn’t work in 2012.


#17

The professors model correctly predicted obama would win second term using the primaries results.


#18

He’s definitely going to be the nominee. As far as winning goes, I think it depends on who the democratic nominee is. If it’s Sanders, I see Trump losing in a landslide. If it’s Clinton, I don’t think it’ll be as close, but I think trump will win.


#19

I hope he will be the Republican candidate because I truly believe that he is the only one who could beat Hillary Clinton. Neither Ted Cruz nor Marco Rubio are strong enough to do so. From what I’ve seen, Trump is incapable of being intimidated by Hillary Clinton or anyone else. I am very looking forward to the first Trump/Clinton debate. :popcorn:


#20

From what I see I think it will be a Trump vs. Clinton match up, but I wouldn’t put money down just yet.


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