Poll finds bleak outlook for a Bloomberg independent bid


#1

*NEW YORK — It was less than three years ago that Michael Bloomberg, who’s now thinking about running for president, said that it was “impossible’’ for him or any independent candidate to reach the White House.

A new national poll suggests that he may have been right the first time, and that his candidacy could change the election’s dynamics.

A USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll found that in a hypothetical race with Donald Trump as the Republican nominee and Bernie Sanders leading the Democratic ticket – presumably the scenario most conducive to a Bloomberg victory – Trump was chosen by 37% of likely voters, Sanders by 30%, and Bloomberg by 16%.

Without Bloomberg in the mix, Trump and Sanders were in a dead heat — 44% to 43%, within the poll’s margin of error. Bloomberg drew 13 percentage points from Sanders and only seven from Trump.*

The big news about this isn’t that Bloomberg is losing (despite the topic title), but that he takes more votes from Sanders than Trump. This all but confirms that Trump would win in a 3 way race between Bloomberg and Sanders.


#2

Would Trump also win in a three-way race between Bloomberg and Clinton?


#3

The general election % means next to nothing. This is won or lost in the electoral college.

I don’t buy that Bloomberg would ultimately take more or less an even amount of votes from each candidate.

My guess is it would be far worse for either Sanders or Clinton, because Bloomberg’s voters would likely come from blue and swing states.

If Bloomberg did run, it could put New York in play for Trump if he’s the nominee.

I think what Bloomberg is waiting on is to see what happens with Clinton’s legal troubles.


#4

I think Bloomberg **knows **what will happen with Clinton,
he’s just waiting for the hammer to drop.

Maybe this is why Harry Reid and the AFL CIO haven’t endorsed her as their candidate.


#5

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