Post-ABC News poll shows Democrats at risk in November as Obama’s approval rating falls


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Democrats face serious obstacles as they look to the November elections, with President Obama’s approval rating at a new low and a majority of voters saying they prefer a Congress in Republican hands to check the president’s agenda, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Obama’s approval rating fell to 41 percent, down from 46 percent through the first three months of the year and the lowest of his presidency in Post-ABC News polls. Just 42 percent approve of his handling of the economy, 37 percent approve of how he is handling the implementation of the Affordable Care Act and 34 percent approve of his handling of the situation involving Ukraine and Russia.

Obama’s low rating could be a significant drag on Democratic candidates this fall — past elections suggest that when approval ratings are as low as Obama’s, the president’s party is almost certain to suffer at the ballot box in November.

washingtonpost.com/politics/post-abc-news-poll-shows-democrats-at-risk-in-november-as-obamas-approval-rating-falls/2014/04/28/2a448b04-cf07-11e3-b812-0c92213941f4_story.html


#2

I don’t put much faith in polls; I recall the polls had Romney winning by a landslide in 2012 and look what happened. As I’ve mentioned in here before, the only poll I trust is the vote on election day. :slight_smile:


#3

I’d be more excited if I believed the polls and if the two party system wasn’t already a symbiotic arrangement designed to perpetuate itself without 3rd party interference. :rolleyes:


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Morris called for a Romney landslide. I remember it well. His prediction was so bad that he wasn’t seen on Fox for about a year if not more.

In the context of his career, it’s a blip.

He’s actually been pretty successful, and as I said, I’m sure he’s made the adjustments for 2014. :yup:

Some on the American left have gone overboard and are relying on Dick Morris 2012 inaccuracies to bolster their bad ideas and future election hopes.

Sad, really. :sad_yes:


#9

There’s something seriously wrong if one has to put “faith” into a what should be a legitimate statistical analysis.


#10

Nate Silver pretty much says the same thing. He has reasons other than Obama for his forecasts, though. The Senate loss will just offset the heavy 2008 Democrat gain.

What they’re not saying is that without House and Senate support, Obama may have to compromise some things he wants or has so we avoid any more government shutdowns, etc. Even impeachment can’t be ruled out. Look at what Clinton, Bush, and Reagan had to deal with in their last two years. .


#11

Don’t believe it until you see it.


#12

Agree. In fact, I agree with the posts so far on this thread, save for perhaps one. Obama could well come back, the GOP candidates could make boneheaded comments that feed the media narrative of the season. Still, the off season elections are usually not good for the party in power - and that is the Democrats.

Ishii


#13

Well midterm elections are typically bad for Democrats in general. Young voters and poor voters, constituencies for Democrats, vote in midterms at lower rates than in Presidential years.

However, I think Democrats will keep the Senate. I have LA and NC at 50/50 right now, with Democrats just outright losing SD and WV and likely MT. However, these are only 5 seats even if Republicans sweep LA/NC, and Democrats are up big in IA and AR right now, states Republicans should be theoretically highly competitive in. Republicans would HAVE to win CO (or have a major turnaround in the AR/IA races) while not losing KY. And if Gingrey or Broun are nominated in GA (and for all intents and purposes, the primary is completely open between all 5 participants), Republicans basically concede that seat too, much like they did in other states with Angle/O’Donnell/Buck/Akin/Mourdock in previous elections.

Republicans would have to have literally everything go their way, and still they’d only have a one or two seat lead in the Senate. It’s far more likely that the Senate is 49-49 (with 2 Democratic-leaning Independents) or 50-48 Republican, with Joe Biden casting the tiebreaker for Democrats. Now, politically, this could work better for Republicans, as they could have the talking point of being “powerless” if they weren’t in control of the chamber, even though both Parties will effectively be powerless if a situation like this happens. But I don’t think they’ll gain enough seats, and then they’ll have to fight in 2016 on a Democratic-favorable Senate map riding the coattails of a Democratic Presidential candidate without baggage during a Presidential turnout year. I think Republicans’ next big chance for Senate control is 2018.


#14

Although obama’s numbers might be dropping there are still many voters who will only vote democrat. I think they need to worry about thr independents. I don’t put a lot of faith in polls especially when there is vorer fraud. Frankly I am disgusted with both parties and not sure I will bother to vote again.

The things this corrupt administration has gotten by with and the people are still in office and have not been removed leads me to believe it won’t get better and I have no faith in the american electorate anymore.


#15

I’m a social and fiscal conservative. I generally don’t refer to myself as Republican anymore, since there is a growing number of progressives in that party. I support and vote for conservative candidates, not the party itself.

I worry about voter fraud. There are proven cases (I don’t have the time to dig them all up, but as I recall, at least one was in Ohio, and another involves some 44,000 dead people still on the voter roles in another state). The latest blow to integrity of the vote occurred yesterday: Federal judge strikes down Wisconsin’s voter ID law

As I conservative, I admit that I believe that voter fraud is probably more beneficial for Democrats. However, I also admit that I am basing that assumption on a few anecdotal stories (and that is based on an aging memory!), and not on hard numbers. Therefore, I feel that whatever the polls say, there is a “fraud margin” that some (many?) conservative candidates must overcome in order to compete.

In addition, there is the media bias. Networks will push ever harder to get their candidates elected, by portraying liberal candidates in a positive light, ignoring the negative stories.


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Polls can fluctuate greatly, and there is a lot of time between now and November. One only needs to recall that in early 1991, George HW Bush had a 90% approval rating. “Political capital” can come and go very quickly.


#18

:rotfl: There was just an article not long ago that said the Repubs have the Senate race in the bag. My how things change in just a matter of weeks. Realistically, the only reason the Braley is doing so well right now in the polls is because he is the only Dem candidate. Although Jacobs is starting to poll ahead of Braley. It won’t be until June before we know who the Republican candidate will be.


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I agree with Larry1700’s post. I don’t identify with the republican party anymore either. I am a conservative. I just don’t have faith or confidence in our voting process. With mail in ballots and not having to show voter id and possible internet voting in the future how do you stop voter fraud which does seem to benefit the democrats. Our country will continue its downward spiral.


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