Russian scholar says US will collapse _ next year

MOSCOW (AP) — If you’re inclined to believe Igor Panarin, and the Kremlin wouldn’t mind if you did, then President Barack Obama will order martial law this year, the U.S. will split into six rump-states before 2011, and Russia and China will become the backbones of a new world order.

Panarin might be easy to ignore but for the fact that he is a dean at the Foreign Ministry’s school for future diplomats and a regular on Russia’s state-guided TV channels. And his predictions fit into the anti-American story line of the Kremlin leadership.

“There is a high probability that the collapse of the United States will occur by 2010,” Panarin told dozens of students, professors and diplomats Tuesday at the Diplomatic Academy — a lecture the ministry pointedly invited The Associated Press and other foreign media to attend.

More here:

The scholar’s argument vis-a-vis our country’s current moral situation seems spot-on. We are in a moral decline which, as his comment seems to insinuate, could lead to collapse.

Putin, the former president who is now prime minister, has likened the United States to Nazi Germany’s Third Reich and blames Washington for the global financial crisis that has pounded the Russian economy.

I wonder how much high oil prices orchestrated by the likes of Chavez and Ahmadinejad had to do with the global financial crisis?
Third Reich? Okaay.

Panarin argued that Americans are in moral decline, saying their great psychological stress is evident from school shootings, the size of the prison population and the number of gay men.

It is a little bit difficult for anyone from Russia to argue of the moral decline of any other nation. Russian men are going around in a vodka-induced haze until they die off younger than men virtually anywhere else.
What was once the KGB is now the Russian mafia.Either way this is the kind of people running Russia these days.

Panarin insisted he didn’t wish for a U.S. collapse, but he predicted Russia and China would emerge from the economic turmoil stronger and said the two nations should work together, even to create a new currency to replace the U.S. dollar.

In terms of moral integrity of the people, Russia is not even in the same boat as China.
In terms of the economy, China’s fate is tied up with the Americans who owe them a lot of money.

it’s strange, but this article (and a few other insights) has just given me a sense of peace regarding the current economic/political turmoil that we are in.

whether the good ole USA crumbles or not, we will survive. we are not of this world, God has chosen us out of this world. we just have to remember to have proper focus.

I also got the same sense of peace, but because I realized that it would finally vindicate the much-aligned Church regarding moral issues (and the fact that the nation’s abandonment of them would lead to a collapse).

Scholars sometimes come up with absurd theories, showing that they are not in touch with the real world. I recall how one Biblical scholar said that the Virgin Mary wrote the Book of Revelation. Americans have a very strong nationalism and people from other countries sometimes feel that is is as stong as a religious belief and similar to that. I see no possibility of the U.S. breaking up in the near future.
What people say here about the enduring reality of the faith is true, but what he said about the U.S. breaking up in the next several years is out of touch with reality.

And in what U.S. state or region are there separatist revolts going on 1/1000th as serious as the one in Chechnya?

I think this fellow’s fundamental error is in not quite being aware that no matter how immoral, corrupt or inept the U.S. government might get, (and one could reasonably argue that it is presently all three) the citizens of the U.S. do have the ability to change it…unlike those in his own country.


Panarin argued that Americans are in moral decline, saying their great psychological stress is evident from school shootings, the size of the prison population and the number of gay men.

There’s some interesting irony there, in that school shootings in Russia are more frequent than in the US. One Russian incident alone killed more students than all the school shootings in America in the last 50 years.

I am rather amused to learn this guy has been making this claim for around ten years or so. I guess he just figures that if he repeats his prediction long enough, sooner or later, he’ll be right. That or he’ll end up like Paul Ehrlich, a master of failed predictions. Interestingly enough, that just means people will still continue to listen to him.

The US will collapse and people will still be better off here than in Russia. :smiley:

You are right that moral decay causes the disruption of society through the weakening of social institutions. And you should take comfort that, while one day Washington D.C. will be in ruins and the United States will be a distant memory, the Catholic Church will remain as a light in the darkness.

However I think Panarin confuses cause and effect. He looks to moral decay as symptomatic of a general decay in society, rather than the cause of the decay of social institutions. Yes, there is a feedback effect (especially if you study Institutionalist Economics or Sociology), but if moral decay is solely the symptom, what is the cause? In Panarin’s view, it’s the Marxist argument of the crisis of capitalism, which is both measurable and poorly supported by prevailing evidence.

I should note that Panarin’s longer assay reflects more Soviet ideology than anything else. The guy is an old Leninist, replete with the trappings of racial predestination, a belief in ideological destiny, and a failure to include logic.

Among his other assertions:

  • The U.S. will split into six nation-states based on racial lines rather than economics or politics. This means that the Southwest will become primarily a new Hispanic homeland (despite the millions of whites, blacks and asians living there), California will become a new Asian homeland (despite the Hispanics there, and California’s dependence upon the Southwest for energy and commodities), and the Midwest will revert to Native American control (despite the near-obliteration of Native American institutions in the area).
  • The collapse is inevitable, which discounts any sort of actions taken against it.
  • The symptoms of collapse are vague - he says there will be higher prices and greater shortages, but our markets work so well that shortages are generally short-lived. Even the high gas prices last year were a six-month phenomenon. This makes sense to a Soviet whose ideology distrusts the market mechanism and hence intervenes to the point that it isn’t allowed to function, but it doesn’t apply here.
  • That moral decay is unidirectional, rather than a force against which a counterforce may be applied. This is just irrational here - even a Hegelian understanding of history (which Marx ascribed to but Panarin apparantly does not) would hold that the thesis of amorality and antithesis of moral reform would result in a synthesis of a new moral balance, one that works out features of both. Now, we look from a systemic perspective (again, Institutionalist Economics) and we see that the two would remain as distinct systems because they require internal cohesion, and so would be in constant conflict, but we have to reject unidirectionality.
  • That Russia and China will be the rulers of a New World Order. This is pure propaganda. I’d believe China to be a key player on the basis of demography alone. I’d also put India, Indonesia, Turkey, Germany, Egypt and Iran on the world stage before I’d think of putting Russia up there. This is the same Russia where epidemiologists estimate that 1 in 4 Russians has an alcohol-induced psychosis, and where the population is shrinking so rapidly that the xenophobic nationalist elements promote pregnancy among unmarried teens rather than allow immigration.

Sorry, where theology and economics meet, I’ve got throw down.

This gentlemen maybe correct. Those forcing government control over health care, car industry, banking, housing and religion are going to push the issue too far. States will rebel and cry out for States Rights. People of faith will want their freedom of Religion, freedom of speech and the right to life. Robbing the hard working people who have been blessed and earned their money will only be tolerated for a little while. Attacks against God and faith will finally be the last straw. It is all happening. Texas, the rest of the south, Alaska and midwest states will leave. They will refuse to become like California.

DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in these forums do not necessarily reflect those of Catholic Answers. For official apologetics resources please visit