Scientist predicts 'mini Ice Age'

Scientist predicts ‘mini Ice Age’

ST. PETERSBURG, Russia, Feb. 7 (UPI) – A Russian astronomer has predicted that Earth will experience a “mini Ice Age” in the middle of this century, caused by low solar activity.

Khabibullo Abdusamatov of the Pulkovo Astronomic Observatory in St. Petersburg said Monday that temperatures will begin falling six or seven years from now, when global warming caused by increased solar activity in the 20th century reaches its peak, RIA Novosti reported.

The coldest period will occur 15 to 20 years after a major solar output decline between 2035 and 2045, Abdusamatov said.

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You mean, if it happens it won’t be caused by industrial gasses causing the dreaded global warming?:eek: Do you suppose that our atmospheric gasses will have travelled to the Sun and will have caused this?

CDL

[quote=GregoryPalamas]You mean, if it happens it won’t be caused by industrial gasses causing the dreaded global warming?:eek: Do you suppose that our atmospheric gasses will have travelled to the Sun and will have caused this?

CDL
[/quote]

Or to quote the eighteenth century English poet Thomas Grey from his work “On a Distant Prospect of Eton College”

Where … (look it up)

[quote=walstan]Or to quote the eighteenth century English poet Thomas Grey from his work “On a Distant Prospect of Eton College”

Where … (look it up)
[/quote]

You mean Grey actually wrote something other than Elegy Written in a Country Churchyard? Wow, I never knew. :stuck_out_tongue:

[quote=GregoryPalamas]You mean, if it happens it won’t be caused by industrial gasses causing the dreaded global warming?:eek: Do you suppose that our atmospheric gasses will have travelled to the Sun and will have caused this?

CDL
[/quote]

Nope… It’ll be because there aren’t enough hockey fans on earth.

[quote=Wildgraywolf]Nope… It’ll be because there aren’t enough hockey fans on earth.
[/quote]

Does this mean Canada will be spared?

[quote=walstan]Or to quote the eighteenth century English poet Thomas Grey from his work “On a Distant Prospect of Eton College”

Where … (look it up)
[/quote]

I will do my best if you will offer some serious information that supports “Global Warming”.

CDL

[quote=Lapsed]Does this mean Canada will be spared?
[/quote]

Perhaps Canada will lead the world in a “Great Hockey Revival”. We can only hope and pray. :whacky:

The prediction of global cooling is sooooo '70’s.

No, wait, they actually DID predict global cooling… before they predicted global warming…

[quote=Maranatha]Scientist predicts ‘mini Ice Age’

ST. PETERSBURG, Russia, Feb. 7 (UPI) – A Russian astronomer has predicted that Earth will experience a “mini Ice Age” in the middle of this century, caused by low solar activity.

Khabibullo Abdusamatov of the Pulkovo Astronomic Observatory in St. Petersburg said Monday that temperatures will begin falling six or seven years from now, when global warming caused by increased solar activity in the 20th century reaches its peak, RIA Novosti reported.

The coldest period will occur 15 to 20 years after a major solar output decline between 2035 and 2045, Abdusamatov said.

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[/quote]

If anyone is REALLY interested, he or she can visit www.sidc.oma.be and click on archives and then on graphics and – VOILA - about 300 years of solar cycles. So you can print some of the graphs out and sketch in what might occur in 2035 or 2045. Hint: it’s an 11 year cycle… on average… could be as short as nine or as much as 15. ]

There are other kinds of short solar cycles as well. See the report by N. Gerson. A copy is available here: www.albertmasetti.com click on Links and then click on the Gerson report. It’s a declassified summary report and easy to read / print out. If anyone has problems accessing it, please let me know.

[quote=Al Masetti]The prediction of global cooling is sooooo '70’s.

No, wait, they actually DID predict global cooling… before they predicted global warming…
[/quote]

Sounds like a Democratic presidential candidate of recent history.

CDL

The problem to all these apparent conflicts is the loose use of the word “Global”. With the present situation parts of the world are likely to heat up whilst other parts will cool. For example, heating of the southern polar regions will cause a rise in sea levels, this rise will in turn effect the gulf stream (it already is lessening in intensity) and turn it off. When that happens Northern Europe will suffer much lower temperatures, possibly a “Mini Ice Age”. This is one of the simpler and more explainable effects of “Global” warming, others are far less predictable. Other than the obvious one of rising sea levels, we know the potential depths the sea will rise too but, we don’t know how this greater depth may effect hurricanes for example, will they become more violent because of the quantity of water available or, will they become less intensive because the temperature range is changed. Will it cause El Nino to move north or south or will it move at all or will it still occur, if not will central America become a desert because of the lack of rainfall etc. etc. etc.

The whole point is that we are not necessarily aware of all the implications but we do know there are a lot of them, and we aren’t going to like what they all may be.

When I was on my second tour in Viet Nam our Brigade S2 (intelligence officer) predicted a mortar attack on our base camp – every night. One night there was a mortar attack, and he walked around the next day with his chest sticking out. “See? I predicted it!”

I often wonder what happened to that guy. I now see he’s gone into the business of predicting climatic change. How can he go wrong predicting both warming and cooling?http://forums.catholic.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

[quote=vern humphrey] How can he go wrong predicting both warming and cooling?http://forums.catholic.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
[/quote]

It’s a win-win scenario! Might even be a Nobel Prize in it for him.

[quote=vern humphrey]When I was on my second tour in Viet Nam our Brigade S2 (intelligence officer) predicted a mortar attack on our base camp – every night. One night there was a mortar attack, and he walked around the next day with his chest sticking out. “See? I predicted it!”

I often wonder what happened to that guy. I now see he’s gone into the business of predicting climatic change. How can he go wrong predicting both warming and cooling?http://forums.catholic.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
[/quote]

It’s called science, that’s spelt S-C-I-E-N-C-E.:wink:

p.s. I always thought Miltary Intelligence was a contradiction in terms!

smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/10/10_5_134.gif

[quote=walstan]It’s called science, that’s spelt S-C-I-E-N-C-E.
[/quote]

Kinda like the S-C-I-E-N-C-E of a low fat diet. After 30 years of hearing low fat we find out now that it was bunk. I found the following on Chicago Boyz blog:

"But Dr. Freedman, the Berkeley statistician, said the overall lesson was clear.
“We, in the scientific community, often give strong advice based on flimsy evidence,” he said. “That’s why we have to do experiments.”

When faced with a subject like global warming, where the only real test of the concept is the passage of time, we should be doubly careful.

chicagoboyz.net/archives/003926.html#more

[quote=SnorterLuster]Kinda like the S-C-I-E-N-C-E of a low fat diet. After 30 years of hearing low fat we find out now that it was bunk. I found the following on Chicago Boyz blog:

chicagoboyz.net/archives/003926.html#more
[/quote]

You beat me to this. I was going to post the same exact point.

[quote=Al Masetti]The prediction of global cooling is sooooo '70’s.

No, wait, they actually DID predict global cooling… before they predicted global warming…
[/quote]

:ehh: …:hmmm: … Sound like someone on Capital Hill:whistle:

PF

[quote=GregoryPalamas]I will do my best if you will offer some serious information that supports “Global Warming”.

CDL
[/quote]

You mean besides retreating glaciers, the continuity equation, basic thermodynamics, and plain old fashion atmospheric chemistry? :wink:

Are there natural variations in climate? Yes
Have there been “mini ice ages” before? Yes
Have there been warm spells before? Yes
Are there recognizable cycles based on solar cycles, precession, and other natural phenomenon? Yes
Will these continue in the future? Yes
Do these have anything to do with global warming? No.

Industrial activity produces waste heat; vast concrete cities act as heat sinks; land clearing and other human activities impact the heat absorption/retention/reflection properties of the surface; CO2 and other gases are transparent to UV but opaque to IR. It is clear that we will warm the planet…the unknown is whether it will be 0.0001 degrees or 25 degrees or someplace in between.

any changes would be additive to such things as mini ice ages and not a replacement of them

[quote=steveandersen]You mean besides retreating glaciers, the continuity equation, basic thermodynamics, and plain old fashion atmospheric chemistry? :wink:

Are there natural variations in climate? Yes
Have there been “mini ice ages” before? Yes
Have there been warm spells before? Yes
Are there recognizable cycles based on solar cycles, precession, and other natural phenomenon? Yes
Will these continue in the future? Yes
Do these have anything to do with global warming? No.

Industrial activity produces waste heat; vast concrete cities act as heat sinks; land clearing and other human activities impact the heat absorption/retention/reflection properties of the surface; CO2 and other gases are transparent to UV but opaque to IR. It is clear that we will warm the planet…the unknown is whether it will be 0.0001 degrees or 25 degrees or someplace in between.

any changes would be additive to such things as mini ice ages and not a replacement of them
[/quote]

The global warming computer models suggest one degree per century.

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