Second-quarter GDP jumps 4.1% for best pace in nearly four years


#1

#2

Gosh … good news.


#3

And this is before the EU drops their tariffs and other trade barriers on US exports!!


#4

decade-long slumber.

What?!?!?!?!

The economy was slumbering during the BO years?!?!?!?


#5

Very good news.


#6

The U.S. struggled to grow at much more than 2% a year under President Obama.

During that time, the population grew by more than 20 million. In other words, there’s a jobs gap of more than 14 million.

What about “labor force participation”? This is a measure of how many people are working or activity looking for a job. And while it’s recently ticked upward, as the nearby chart shows it is still way below where it was when the jobs recession ended in early 2010.

Want more context? Compare these numbers to what happened during the Reagan recovery, when the job market exploded after bottoming out in December 1982. While the population grew 12.4 million in the following six years, the number of jobs shot up by 18.4 million.

As a result, the labor force participation rate – which started out lower under Reagan than Obama – zoomed upward as strong growth pulled people back into the job market.

There are other bits of context on jobs that Furman manages to leave out of his post.

While 14.4 million jobs were created from February 2010 to March 2016, the number of people who dropped out of the labor force – either because they retired or just quit looking for work – shot up an astonishing 10 million.


#7

It is good news but wages remain stagnant. Inequality is soaring right along with the economy. Also I think it’s important to prepare for the possibility of inflation and a downturn as the market corrects itself. My concern here is that Trump is tying himself primary to a good economy, and I am not saying it is not a good economy, I am just pointing out the danger to this as a political strategy, given the inevitable fluctuations of the market. I am getting increasingly concerned at inequality too. If the GOP can’t somehow deliver higher wages/better more secure living conditions for everyone, I predict this results in a swing of just enough moderates/independents (middle class) to the Democrats. Not now, I think the Democrats have wandered off the map into economic/social radicalism for the time being; I mean when they eventually rebuild, 5-10 years down the road. (and it won’t be 5-10 years if the economy tanks) The Trump Revolution may of course roar on for awhile (and I support that) but the final irony may be that it really is in fact just for the rich, not America, in its great or lesser form. I like Trump on social issues mainly.


#8

To my understanding, wages are growing, just not as fast so far in 2018 as they did in late 2017.


#9

I’ve not seen any evidence of it, or heard of it. I agree many jobs are being created but they are either low-skilled or in construction, energy, etc. sectors of the economy that don’t affect a lot of people (or don’t affect me, bottom line). I can try and find the article - I just read it about how wages are not increasing. I thought when I read it, that makes sense. My point is I remember the 90s, when wages were so high. Nothing compared to that is happening around me, anyway. Not yet. I am still hopeful, just a little wary because I also see the number of billionaires going through the roof. This has to be addressed at some point. It is a new phenomenon, inequality. I don’t think this makes me a socialist, I think even millionaires should worry about this. The increasingly small numbers of people holding large portions of national and international wealth.

This is not the article I read but I think there is a lot of this out there - there is a growing fear of inflation.


#10

The data is from before those EU tariffs were imposed. This was over the second quarter. That’s April, May, and June.


#11

It is my impression that inflation is linked to significant wage increases, not to slow wage growth. Probably one of the big reasons we haven’t had a lot of inflation over the last couple of decades.


#12

Corporate earnings are off the charts, no one is disputing that. Maybe that is causing the talk about a fear of inflation, I don’t know.


#13

What is “earnings”?


#14

#15

What is “profits”?


#16

#17

Well, what happens if, instead of profits, there are losses? If, expenses exceed revenue?


#18

I am not sure I follow… I am just making a point that there is undeniably an economic boom to corporate America across a wide spectrum of the economy. I am happy with Trump overall. But I see a bit of a red flag here on inequality. The increased profits/earnings, however you want to phrase it, are not trickling down to the middle class in the form of wage increases at any noticeable rate. The middle class (and below) is huge, by far most of us, a very important part of Trump’s electorate. Not to mention flagrant social injustice in this trend as well. The little guy, all that. If enough of the middle class Trump voters take off their MAGA hats…well, that is that. (ie don’t vote) Trump will live and/or die on this economy - good or bad for the middle class.


#19

Nice to see. Hope we see many more 3% and higher GDP quarters ahead.


#20

No…the EU has had barriers to free trade with us on many things, they just raised them in response to President Trump imposing similar ones on their things.

Then they, fortunately, caved in and are now promising to drop many of their tariffs.


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