Shock Polls: Trump Surges to Lead in Virginia, Tied in Colorado


#1

West Long Branch, NJ - Donald Trump remains ahead in the race for Utah’s electoral votes - matching the 6 point lead he had in last month’s Monmouth University Poll . While independent candidate Evan McMullin continues to claim a significant share of support from Republican voters, he still trails in third place behind Hillary Clinton. Most Beehive State voters believe Clinton is going to win the presidency, but very few would change their vote if they thought the race was closer.

Among Utah voters who have already cast their ballots or are likely to vote in next week’s presidential election, 37% currently support Trump, 31% back Clinton, and 24% back McMullin. Another 4% support Libertarian Gary Johnson and 1% back Green Party candidate Jill Stein. The race has changed little since early October, when voter support stood at 34% for Trump, 28% for Clinton, and 20% for McMullin.

“It’s been nearly 50 years since a third party candidate won any state’s electoral votes. That streak should remain intact. While McMullin has cut into Trump’s partisan support, the independent candidate has not broken out of third place,” said Patrick Murray, director of the non-partisan Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Self-identified Republicans support Trump over McMullin by a 56% to 34% margin, with 4% supporting Clinton. Among independent voters, 34% support Trump, 32% back Clinton, and 24% support McMullin. Nearly all self-identified Democrats (86%) are voting for Clinton. McMullin gets more support from voters under 50 years old - 30% compared with 33% for Trump and 26% for Clinton - than he does with those age 50 and older - 18% compared with 40% for Trump and 37% for Clinton.

monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_UT_110316/

Looks like Utah is going red again.


#2

*lifezette.com/polizette/shock-polls-trump-surges-lead-virginia-tied-colorado/

Two shocking polls dropped on Wednesday show Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump may be finally on a path to an Electoral College victory.

Trump has been struggling to put together the final piece of the electoral puzzle in his presidential bid. In short, he needs 270 electoral votes, and taking the lead in some key swing states has remained elusive. But if the new polls are correct, at least two of those states are now firmly within Trump’s reach.

If Trump has Colorado and Virginia back in play, then Clinton’s “blue wall” strategy is crumbling.

In Virginia, Trump has jumped from 34 percent to 44 percent. Clinton gets 41 percent, a 5-point drop in one month, according to Hampton University.

The Hampton poll was conducted from Oct. 26 to Oct. 30. The margin of error is plus-or-minus 4.58 percent.

The bad news for Clinton didn’t stop in the Old Dominion State.

Virginia General Election

Likely voters

Early October

Donald Trump ® 34%
Hillary Clinton (D) 46%

Late October

Donald Trump ® 44%
Hillary Clinton (D) 41%

Source: Hampton University 11-2

The Denver Post reported that a University of Denver poll found Clinton and Trump are tied at 39 percent in a four-way race in Colorado, in a survey of likely voters conducted Saturday through Monday.

Virginia and Colorado have been particularly tough nuts for Trump to crack. To win the White House, it is generally agreed that Trump needs to hold solid GOP states and then win Ohio, Iowa, Florida, and North Carolina. After that, Trump needs a final combination of small- to medium-sized swing states — likely Nevada, Colorado, or Virginia — to cross the finish line.

It has all seemed a tall order. Then on Friday, the FBI informed Congress it would relaunch an investigation into Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s private email server. The server in question was used by Clinton from 2009 to 2013 to handle her emails as secretary of state. That is alleged to be, at least, a violation of the Federal Records Act.

Then more bombshell news broke Sunday: The FBI is also aggressively investigating the Clinton Foundation for corruption, a development sure to further hamstring her flagging campaign’s stumble to the finish line.

If Trump has Colorado and Virginia back in play, then Clinton’s “blue wall” strategy is crumbling. Trump could well be adding some more unexpected states before Tuesday, if the FBI news gets worse.*

Looks like America is getting more intelligent by the day.


#3

Trump is leading in Utah in two new polls by Rasmussen Reports and Monmouth University. Utah was in doubt for a while because of Evan McMullin, but it looks positive now for Trump.


#4

Trump Banks on New Hampshire to Clinch Win

Polls are tightening in New Hampshire and show Trump within striking distance of Hillary Clinton, whose lead there has been cut in half over the last week in the RealClearPolitics polling average.

realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/11/03/trump_banks_on_new_hampshire_to_cinch_win.html


#5

According to Real Clear Politics no toss-up map, Clinton would win electoral college 273 to 265 (as of their most recently updated polling data).

However, that has Clinton winning both Virginia and Colorado. If all else holds up, and Trump takes Virginia rather than Clinton, Trump wins 278 to 260.

Source:
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html


#6

Anything can happen in the last few days. But it takes 270 to win the election and Hillary was up in the 300s last week. Trump has been eroding her in the polls all week.


#7

What’s the shock? That it’s taken this long?

Virginia Slim: “You’ve come a long way baby … to get where you got to today!”

(John) Denver: :whistle: “Rocky Mo-oun-tain Tiiiieee … Colorado!”


#8

NBC/WSJ/Marist poll

AZ
Trump 45, +5
Clinton 40
Johnson 9
Stein 3

GA
Trump 45, +1
Clinton 44
Johnson 8

TX
Trump 49 +9
Clinton 40
Johnson 6

Colorado
Magellan Strategies Poll:

Clinton 44% (+6)
Trump 38%

A point shift toward Clinton in 2 weeks

ECPS Utah Presidential Poll
Donald Trump 40%
Evan_McMullin 28%
Hillary Clinton 20%


#9

The majority of liberals in Colorado live in Denver and Boulder. The Denver Post has historically been liberal in it’s reporting. I would not recommend depending on this source for accurate polling.
A great deal of the outlying counties are conservative. And Bernie had a very large support in CO, but it seems they did not automatically shift to Hillary. I predict it will be tight but Trump will most likely win Colorado.


#10

National:

Reuters/Ipsos Poll Clinton +6 in two-way, + 8 in four-way race

ABC/Wash Post tracking Clinton +2

CBS News/NYT Clinton +3


#11

Election 2016 Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Poll Average 46.6 45.3 Clinton +1.3 Trending Down
4-Way RCP Average 45.0 43.0 Clinton +2.0 Trending Up
Favorability Ratings -10.6 -15.3 Clinton +4.7

Electoral College Clinton Trump 270 required to win
RCP Electoral Map 226 180 Clinton
No Toss Up States 302 236


#12

National, Reuters/Ipsos Poll 10/29-11/2

Clinton 45% (+8)
Trump 37
Johnson 5
Stein 2

H2H:
Clinton 45% (+6)
Trump 39


#13

if you believe polls.


#14

National Head-2-Head
Gravis Marketing Poll

Clinton 50
Trump 50


#15

These polls are covering thier skewed attempts.

I think trump has always been ahead or closer than people think. Honestly I wouldn’t be surprised if some blue states were red on Tuesday. I also wouldn’t be surprised if it was Hillary in a landslide so what do I know…:shrug:


#16

Donald Trump gains ground on Hillary Clinton, according to Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation: reut.rs/2foA25g

The polls still show that Hillary will be elected on Tuesday.


#17

Well one of these lovelies has to win…but not on my ticket.


#18

I am still praying for a miracle!


#19

The momentum seems to be going his way, not hers, so your prayers may be answered yet.


#20

Gravis Marketing
Final Utah Poll Donald Trump 35% Hillary Clinton 29% Evan_McMullin 24% Johnson 3% Stein 1% Unsure 8%


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