I have a truly bone-headed question that just came to me last night. It is not the first truly bone-headed question I’ve ever had in my life, and it won’t be the last. Here goes:
Imagine an idealized situation where everyone “socially distances”, wears their mask at all times when venturing anywhere that other people are going to be, keeps such forays to an absolute bare minimum, and otherwise either stays home or goes out into the open air where there are no other people.
It takes about two weeks for the CV virus to incubate and manifest itself (I’m making this assumption, not sure it’s necessarily true). So let’s say that everyone in this idealized situation does what I’ve described above, for good measure, let’s make it a month (four weeks).
In that time, isn’t everybody who has the virus going to go ahead, get sick from it, get better, and — there is no pleasant way to say this — those who have the virus and are of a high-risk group get even sicker, and either convalesce, or (this is the unpleasant part) die of it?
And once this has all run its course, shouldn’t the pandemic — at least within this idealized, hermetic “bubble” environment — burn itself up and nobody else within the “bubble” gets sick from there on out?
Extend this “bubble” to the size of the world itself. Shouldn’t the pandemic run its course and then “fizzle out”? Or is there an alternative scenario of the virus “eating up the whole world” — think Pac-Man eating dots — and basically infecting everyone? And if so, how?
Actually, that’s not just one question, it’s several. Virology is far from my field of expertise.
Any thoughts? (I’m probably overlooking something really basic here. Apologies in advance.)