The Atlantic: The Trump Presidency Is Over (Coronavirus)

Yeah, where in the article did it actually quote Newsom saying three months?

Is everyone that should be tested being tested?

And, at what point can you open up things a bit and will this still prevent an increase in the spread rate?

You probably don’t have any conception of the scope of the deaths. In Spain they have run out of room in morgues and are stacking dead bodies in an ice rink. In Italy dead bodies in nursing homes are left in their beds because the health care workers have run away. Old people sheltering in place will not save them because they still will catch it from the younger people that necessarily will be part of their lives, if only as caregivers. By contrast South Korea clamped down early and hard and they are not overwhelming their health care systems. They will get back on their feet before we will and with fewer deaths.

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A few things at play in n Italy.Majority of deaths are elderly,majority of populace smoke,they commingle everyday elbows to another body part. A perfect storm for this virus Not to mention workers from China gong back and forth

In addition in Italy there are not enough respirators and ICU beds to go around. If you’re over 60 you’re out of luck whether you have COVID-19 or a heart attack. You are left to die alone. And if it’s COVID-19 it’s a death by slow drowning in your own fluids.

It’s a humanitarian crisis beyond anything we’ve known since the Spanish Flu. The death rate in Italy from the disease is over 10%, an order of magnitude higher than most places and two orders of magnitude higher than the seasonal flu.

It’s what happens if you don’t clamp down hard and fast.

Doctors are not idiots. They know the consequences of a trashed economy. They also know that a trashed health care system will also trash the economy. And result in more dead people. From an awful, inhumane death.

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Yet if you compare Italy with the US, you see that the total number dead as of today in the US is exactly how many there were in Italy 6 days ago. We are Italy, only 6 days behind them. Our trajectory is still accelerating exponentially.

I grant all that. It is horrible. And yet … you have no conception of the destruction wrought on the economy and what will happen to us all when that ensues. Destruction to the point of possibly trashing the pension check you depend on.
Destruction to the point of destroying the health care infrastructure that sustains you. Are you willing to consider that possibility?

It is a terrible dilemma, I get that. But the tradeoff has to be considered.

Do you lockdown the economy into trash status? Or do you accept the tradeoff in order to have an economy that is at least staggering? It is highly likely that we will get a second wave of Covid-19. We have no idea if it will be worse than the current wave as it was with the Spanish Flu. Or better as it has been with the recent flu pandemics. But if the economy is GONE, there will be no resources left to combat that second wave. Or combat the next flu pandemic. Which is coming as well.

They are idiots. They do not understand that a trashed economy will reverberate back on them down the road. And not in a good way.

Tradeoffs need to be considered.

The health care infrastructure is not going to collapse due to the economy. But it may very well collapse due to the cases overwhelming the system. We have plenty of resources if we share them.

It has been considered. We will know more in two weeks. Then we can re-evaluate our options. But if we go back to life as normal right now, we will not have the option in two weeks of turning back the clock and making that decision differently. We can hold out for a little longer.

We have antibiotics to treat the secondary bacterial infections that they did not have in 1918. We know more about vaccines. We may actually have a vaccine before a “second wave”. Let’s leave people alive to have that chance.

Distant? Oh please … people are out of jobs now. California went from 2000 unemployment claim applications on an average day to 80000 last week.

We can survive another two weeks and I’m ok with that. But we can’t survive three months, let alone 18 months like that Imperial College paper strongly suggests. The average small business will not survive three months. You ever think about that? From what you’re saying here, I don’t think so.

We do have drugs they didn’t have in 1918. I’ll grant you that point. But a vaccine is not a given. Hence efforts to expand testing have to be given the highest priority along with using “right to try” to try different drug regimens to stop Covid-19 patients short of venting, followed by consideration of restarting at least parts of the economy. Let’s leave people alive with paychecks to have that chance.

People out of work and applying for unemployment hardly qualifies as “destroying the health care infrastructure that sustains you.

Good. Then if in two weeks the number of new cases looks like it will be within what our health care system can handle, you can make your case at that time.

Large parts of the economy are still operating and will continue to do so.

You are deflecting again, a nasty habit.

Since you opt out of reviewing the actual numbers, answer the question I posted to you.

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So, you don’t understand why I am reluctant to analyze numbers of questionable validity? It’s because I don’t know if they are good numbers. Garbage in, garbage out. You certainly have made no attempt to say why the numbers are valid.

Actually, it is quite scientific to not try to draw conclusions from questionable data.

@drcube

You just keep deflecting,
We’re done
Stop responding to my posts

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I have stated clearly that I don’t think the data is good and hence I am not going to draw conclusions from the data. You have made no attempt to explain why the data is good and we should have attempt to draw conclusions from the data. So, yes, we’re at a bit of an impasse.

A false equivalence: cannot believe people are so dumb to fall for this fallacy.

Look, small companies cannot stay in business if their fixed and labor expenses exceed their revenues for long enough. That trolley company you show proudly show off can’t stay in business if there are too few customers. Unless of course they’re connected to a legislator who gets them fed from the government trough. In a Great Depression, most small companies will fail. And then there will be far too few jobs for employees to return to. But somehow you missed that memo in your economics classes.

. . . . JK, you still seem to think small business owners are sitting on mounds of cash. I know a fair number of them: most of them only have one to three months of operating cash from which they draw a modest salary that gets spent on the family. Most of them do not live on easy street. but you think they all do…

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I can see how lockdowns can possibly prevent hospital overcrowding and overtaxing of medical personnel, but I don’t see how we’re going to avoid everybody getting it eventually except those who somehow have natural immunity and those who don’t but seem to.

Yes, it will slow down the spread, but as long as there are any carriers in, say, Los Angeles, it will eventually get everybody in the absence of an effective vaccine.

I get your point. If the economy craters, so will the healthcare system.

Interesting. My maternal grandfather talked to me quite a bit about the Depression. One thing he was fond of saying was that “…while 25% of people were out of work, that meant 75% had jobs and were making money” During the Depression, some people did better during it than they did before it; particularly people who were paid by the government.

One interesting thing too. He was a farmer, but lost his farm in the Depression. It had been a standard farm for its time; diversified and dependent on the commodities everybody else was growing; grain and livestock.

After he went under, he rented a five acre patch and grew strawberries on it. He found he could sell every single one he could raise. At the time, they were a luxury item and entirely seasonal, and the people with money rushed to get them when the season was on. He rented more land and raised still more, and there was just no bottom to that market. No matter what he did, he couldn’t raise enough to meet the demand. Ultimately, he was filling railroad carloads with them and shipping them to St. Louis, Chicago and other distant places. It was interesting. They stopped picking at about 3:00 in the afternoon, and the berries were in the stores when they opened in distant cities the very next morning. And the shoppers were there when the stores opened and snatched up every last one before noon. Meanwhile, diversified farmers were pouring milk out on the ground and killing calves and pigs in a vain attempt to get prices back up.

And while I don’t expect the economy to completely crater, I sure could see some people doing very badly and also very well in this crisis. There are people who can pay for whatever they want, and they’ll do it. But at the same time, I can’t feature any wisdom in keeping people in lockdown for a time so long that it destroys part of the economy entirely. It took a long time to rebuild during and after WWII.

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The country didn’t really start recovering from the Great Depression until 1946. Sure unemployment was mostly wiped out in 1942, but the rationing and the war effort kept most people from enjoying the newfound fruits of their labor. The thing was FDR was contemplating the return of his disastrous policies from the 1930’s and his aides were beside themselves trying to talk him out of it. Have to remember it took WW2 to snap the country out of the funk FDR had put it in with his mostly blundering attempts to manage the aftermath of the stock market crash of 1929, the sovereign debt crisis of 1931-32 and the Dust Bowl years 1933-36. Remember there was another Depression in 1937-38. Fortunately for the country, FDR passed away before WW2 ended and Truman charted a different path. Thank goodness.

But I mention this to show how misguided attempts to deal with depressions can have effects that last a really long time. Which is part of why I’m agitating so hard to make sure we don’t fall into another Great Depression. Because I don’t trust the government to carry us through in a timely manner. Because of the cronyism interjecting themselves on both sides of the aisle will guarantee it will be years to recover from 2020.

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