The Coronavirus’ Hidden Death Toll in America’s Counties

Our examination of 366 counties across the United States finds that COVID-19 deaths were two to 30 times higher than reported COVID-19 death rates.

I assume COVID-19 death undercounts are a universal issue. When countries go through their excess mortality data, death rates will go up 10-25% across all first world nations.

I have been keeping track of Sweden, because we are all interested in their experiment. Also their mortality data for this year and the previous five years is easily accessible, compiled and updated every few weeks. From January 1 through about March 18, Sweden was reporting a consistently lower death rate than the average of the last five years. This most likely indicates that the 2020 flu season in Sweden was less severe than normal.


Starting around March 20, the average daily death rate becomes consistently higher than average. Through May 4, the reported number of deaths reported due to COVID-19 is about 25% lower than the sum of deaths during the same period.

Some preliminary data from CDC suggests similar undercounts in the US (about 22% in the New York study below)


So we passed 100,000 deaths some time ago, and are more likely over 120,000 at this point. But I guess excess mortality data is not as exciting as the stories of doctors being forced to change death certificates to COVID-19 (yes, I have people in my own family circulating these stories).
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About a month ago more than half the counties had no deaths. All of a sudden they have astronomically increased?

That’s how exponential kinetics work.

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