The curious decline and uncertain future of the Democratic Party


#1

When President-elect Donald Trump replaces Barack Obama on January 20, the Democratic Party will find itself more removed from power than at almost any point since the party’s creation…

…PART ONE
HOW DEMOCRATS GOT HERE…

…Republicans have a large state legislature advantage. That wasn’t always the case…

…Democrats once swept rural counties. Today their wins are concentrated in high-density, urban areas…

…The divide between the coasts was sharp in 2016. But past Democratic candidates won the heartland…

…PART TWO
WHAT LIES AHEAD…

…1. The Ohio path…

…Ohio, long a presidential bellwether, is one of the upper Mid-Atlantic and Midwest states — including Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan — that had recently voted Democratic, but flipped for Trump. Democrats will probably never win the presidency again without winning back Pennsylvania or Michigan, which were both extremely close in 2016. But the question is what to do with places like Ohio and Iowa, both of which Obama won twice before Clinton lost them decisively…

…2. The Arizona Path…

…The strategy would require a dramatic realignment of political resources away from the traditional battlegrounds. And Democrats would likely need to re-prioritize immigration reform (Arizona) and issues important to African-American voters (Georgia), which may make it harder for the party to reclaim white working class voters…

…Party leaders seem to have recognized the error and have the new Obama-backed effort to win state legislatures ahead of the next round of redistricting in 2020. If successful, the party will lessen the headwind of Republican gerrymandering, though they will still have their own self-gerrymandering to worry about.

More:
nbcnews.com/specials/democrats-left-in-the-lurch


#2

Yes,and to think it wasn’t too long ago that many Dems were crowing about the imminent demise of the Republican Party. Funny how things changed;)


#3

So true. How they are acting now is shameful! I will never have any respect for the democrats again. They are hateful.


#4

Their candidate won a popular majority for the presidency; I wouldn’t call them declined just yet.

ICXC NIKA


#5

Agreed. I’m a registered dem, but in the last several years saw the party walk away from me. I need to change my registration to Independent. The platform now seems to stand for everything not Christian in values. Sigh.

Blessings,
Stephie


#6

They certainly have declined in their childish and hateful behavior. They have no leadership.


#7

I certainly do not consider the Dem party in anything other than a temporary decline. It had a terrible candidate following a terrible administration and went so far left that many could see it from where they stood.

They’ll probably never recover in rural areas, but I don’t think they care about that. Theirs is and has long been an urban strategy. And they’re well-fitted for that, as it seems urban areas have grown greatly more tolerant of anti-life positions and leftism generally. Who would have ever thought an avowed socialist could do as well as Sanders did? And who would have guessed a few decades ago that someone like Elizabeth Warren would be their next likely candidate for president?

Repubs should be very slow to count the Dems out. They want to change the country in fundamental ways, as Obama has said. Wouldn’t take much to get the majority of the country into that same way of thinking. The “Alinsky formula” of “proletariatizing” a significant segment of the middle class is actually working. What the Repubs need to consolidate is for Trump’s administration to greatly succeed. The Dems and their fellow travelers, of course, will do everything in their power to prevent that.


#8

Great post! :thumbsup:


#9

Yes but as the President has said, there is much work to be done at the county, district, and state levels.

I think that both paths are viable. I expect that Democrats to work continue to value inclusiveness, work against voter suppression, and to champion education and retraining for 21st century jobs that will provide sustainable vitality for economically lagging communities.

The Republicans future is not as clear: they will first have to sort out whether they are following program of Congressional Republicans or Trump, wherever he is heading. If the latter, it will be important for Trump to rebound from his unusually low entry-level approval ratings… We will know how this shakes out in the 2018 elections.


#10

There’s no lack of shame and hatred coming from Republican quarters.


#11

Excellently stated.


#12

It is just one more chapter in the natural swing from left to right and back again.

The danger for conservatives is to not fully use the power they have been given in the next two years to implement the desires of their party.

The progressives have demonstrated they have no intention of slowing the implementation of their agenda and will continue in any way possible to influence not just the political class, but their base to further the implementation of socialist ideology.

If the Republicans having full power, don’t change the course of the nation back to a sustainable path I believe they, not the Democrats, are in trouble. It is clear their base is fed up with their actions over the last decade plus which is why Donald Trump is slated to be the next President.


#13

Hillary Clinton did indeed win the most votes, but she did not win a majority of votes cast. In this election, there were two left-of-center candidates (Clinton and Stein) and two right-of-center candidates (Trump and Johnson). The two ROC candidates actually received more votes than the two LOC candidates, by a margin of approximately 350,000 votes.

This may simply reflect a lack of enthusiasm on the left, but it may also indicate that this is still a right-of-center country. It’s also worth noting that the republicans did not have any candidate for U.S. Senate in California, meaning that republicans in the Los Angeles, Sacramento, San Francisco, and San Diego areas did not have a reason to go vote. The vote margin in California would almost certainly have been closer if there had been a republican candidate for Senate.


#14

All true, and who is to blame? The American people. The two major parties are doing the same thing, playing us for fools and destroying the country. You think Trump is going to make America great again? You think he’s going to make America moral? Think again. The change has to come from the hearts of the people. But the people want liberty without duty. They want benefits without taxes. We are heading for a cliff, both morally and fiscally. Both parties are shutting their eyes, pressing on the gas pedal, and hoping the bus can fly. Dreamers awake!


#15

Amen and amen. The media is still powerful, and people are still impressionable. Four years of constant attack and subtle undermining on the media’s part can still take its toll. It’s foolish to think otherwise. Sander’s popularity should be a warning to vigilance. So while I’m relieved Clinton didn’t win, and I’m relieved by some of Trump’s Catholic cabinet picks, we’re definitely not out of the woods. Just visit any college campus.


#16

I disagree with your assessment. The four leading candidates were all left of center. Stein was extreme-far-left, Clinton was far-left, Johnson was left of center, and Trump left of center depending on the issue. Trump’s rhetoric during the election tended sometimes right of center, but how that translates into policy will soon be seen.


#17

I think it needs to be recognized that the Dem party and the media are essentially the same group. Sadly, it also needs to be recognized that many people take their mores as well as their expectations from the government/media continuum. Look at what a short time it took to convince the public about homosexual marriage. But it didn’t originate with the public, it originated with those whose interest it is to persuade the public of things. Selling of homosexuality and homosexual marriage has been relentless for the last two decades.

We might actually have a refreshing interlude coming in which the administration’s objective is simply to administer and not to impose social mores. When folks like Obama talk about “fundamentally changing America” they mean it in more ways than I think most people think, and recent history has shown that it can work. They’re very good at it.

But if the government, for a time, stays with governing instead of imposing ideology, the other purveyors of personal and social morality (like churches, for example) might actually have a chance to be heard instead of being drowned out by louder voices.


#18

The picture is worse than what you painted. There were two other ROC candidates (Castle and McMullin) who accounted for almost a million popular voted between them, and they weren’t on the ballot in all states. That brings the ROC electoral vote total to over a million more than the LOC electoral vote total.


#19

I’m not all that surprised about the recent woes of the Democratic Party. The old ways that made the political party popular no longer work as well as once was the case. The Democratic party knows that. The party has been trying to pivot away to new ideas. In my opinion they are going about it wrong. At some point they will likely figure new ideas out that capture Americans hearts and minds. They are not there yet.


#20

Yes!!! I remember all those stories the media did about the end of the Republican party.
The end of the Democrat party is poetic justice!


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