The Final 15: The Latest Polls in the Swing States That Will Decide the Election


#1

ABC News currently rates 15 states and 2 congressional districts as in-play on Election Day. abcn.ws/2fq3tnD


#2

I think we will know pretty early on Tuesday if there will be a sweep for Hillary


#3

Usually - political wonk that I am - I watch these sorts of things live throughout the night and try to find an excuse to arrive late to whatever I’m doing the next day. Which, in the last two U.S. elections, happened to be school and university.

Not so this time (a bit older now).

I’ll be getting a late night train from London. But this is not, I’m sad to say, any sign that I’m becoming less of a politics wonk. In fact, I’m positively even more “wonk-ish” this time around - I’m attending a conference on the evening of November 8th to discuss the ramifications of the U.S. election for the legal profession - especially if Trump wins. I have to admit, we are all a bit apoplectic and hyperventilating at the thought of the U.S. heading towards trade protectionism.

(I am hopeful that a massive hike in regulatory work due to the chronic uncertainty that is likely to creep into the markets will be sufficient to compensate for a sharp slowdown in the number of deals being made - what with Brexit and Trumpist anti-trade agreement rhetoric. We could be about to enter a Brave New World…)

The slightly annoying thing is, I’m there to discuss the election and yet I won’t even be able to watch the blinking results comin’ in! :mad:

Perhaps I’ll try and find time to login to CAF for a brief moment or two…boy, it should be fun to see some of the fall-out either way, no matter who wins, on this forum. :popcorn:


#4

One poll has it tied in Michigan:

dailycaller.com/2016/11/04/exclusive-poll-trump-clinton-tied-in-michigan/


#5

But more have it a 3-6% lead for HRC.


#6

why get anxious over polls? nothing is certain until election day.


#7

But they do tend to give you an idea where things are.


#8

depends on which poll you look at. some say Clinton ahead, some say Trump. some have the race tied.


#9

Nate silver 538 is pretty accurate in the last 3-4 election cycles.


#10

I don’t know if Trump can win in Michigan, but look at the polls cited on this image by Michael Moore regarding the Democratic primary between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton in Michigan: twitter.com/mmflint/status/793096419657805824

On Real Clear Politics, the Real Clear Politics average, it was +21.4 for Hillary Clinton… but Bernie Sanders won. Of the 18 polls listed, Hillary Clinton led by double digits in nearly all of the polls. Quite extraordinary.


#11

It’s not written by Nate Silver, but there is an article up at Five Thirty Eight that was posted on October 30 2016, and it’s title is:

The Cubs Have A Smaller Chance Of Winning Than Trump Does

fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-cubs-have-a-smaller-chance-of-winning-than-trump-does/


#12

So IOW according to this map, Donald Trump could win the remaining tossups, FL, NC, AZ and the 2 tossup congressional districts in Maine and still lose. He could win FL, NC, AZ, along with OH and IA and all of the leaning or solid R states and he will still need a state that is leaning blue or solid blue.


#13

guess we will just have to wait until Tuesday or Wednesday to find out…anything is possible at this point.


#14

Not really. This is by far the least suspenseful election since 1984. The only unsure thing is the size of Clinton’s margin.


#15

:popcorn:


#16

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