The postseason: baseball

I am somewhat disappointed that the Padres did not win today so they got eliminated on the last day.

So who will you cheer for or against. I like the Rays, Rangers, and Reds (really I do, I just did not pick all the teams that start with an R; it is just a coincidence) in that order.

As Billy Beane[

In baseball, many wild card seeds won the World Series such as the 1997 Florida Marlins, 2002 Anaheim Angels, 2003 Florida Marlins, 2004 Boston Red Sox,

NL:

Cincinnati vs. Philadelphia
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco

AL

New York vs. Minnesota
Texas vs. Tampa Bay

Actual predictions of the winners (for the purposes of being humiliated later on):

NLDS

Philadelphia

San Francisco

ALDS:

New York

Tampa Bay

NLCS:

Philadelpha

ALCS:

Tampa Bay

WS:

Philadelphia

I like Philadelphia to win it all because Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt are an excellent triumvirate.Moneyball

Over the course of those 25 years, the team with the best record only won the World Series seven times (or 28% of the time). We have now completed 15 years with eight teams in baseball’s post-season. Over these 15 seasons, the team with the best record has only won the World Series three times. In fact, a team ranked 5th or lower in the regular season record has taken the title five times. So with respect to baseball, the more teams in the post-season, the more random the outcomes.

Outcomes in basketball are less random. Over the past 30 years, the team with the best record in the NBA has won the NBA title 16 times. The team with the second-best record took the title eight times. Furthermore, over the past 30 years, only eight different teams have won an NBA title. In contrast, nine different teams have won the World Series in the past fifteen seasons.

So although basketball allows more teams into the playoffs, outcomes don’t appear as random as we observe in baseball. The reason for this difference is what we call “the short supply of tall people.” The NBA draws its talent from a very small population (really tall people). As Stephen Jay Gould argued, the smaller the population a league draws upon, the wider the spread in the talents employed. Applied to basketball, this means some teams get to employ players like Dwight Howard or LeBron James. Other teams, though, have to employ lesser talents. And when players who are substantially better get to play inferior talents, the outcomes end up being far more predictable.

freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/30/the-sports-economists-answer-your-questions/]("http://www.pervoprohodcy.ru/baseball/book2/html/132.htm")

I think the reason is becauase sports like baseball and hockey have positons that can by themselves change the outcome of a game.

A really hot goalie can make an average team go far in the playoffs and help a good but certainly not the best team win it all.

Good pitching can do the same for an average team that can only score a few runs.

Basketball does not really have that x factor position that can win a game on its own. I mean look at Lebron; he chokes every time and will still choke in Miami. So the really great talent will generally win since it takes more than one player to do it.

But ironically I think I agree with your teams that you like, also in that order. However, I hate the Phillies so I really hope your prediction is wrong.

[quote="wjp984, post:2, topic:214909"]

Good pitching can do the same for an average team that can only score a few runs.

[/quote]

You certainly need a few good pitcher for that to work. Felix Hernandez will probably be the AL Cy Young, despite his mediocre W-L record. He has a higher WAR, wins above replacement player, (6.0 | $7.2 million ) for 2010 than David Price (5.3 | $1.8 million ), CC Sabathia (5.5 | $24.3 million), and Cliff Lee (4.4 | $9.0 million).

The 2010 San Diego Padres as an excellent example of this which had a good season
despite an anemic offense, with only Adrian Gonzalez as their jewel (BA .298 ,OPS .904, 29 HR) with their next best hitters aren't as "good". For instance, Ryan Ludwick (BA .251, HR 17, OPS .783) and Miguel Tejada (BA .269, HR 15, OPS .692) while in contrast the Yankees have A-Rod (BA .270, OPS .847, HR 30), Mark Tiexiera (BA .256, HR 33, OPS .846), Nick Swisher (BA .288, HR 29, OPS .870) , Robinson Cano ( BA .309, HR 29, OPS .914 ): in addition to the four, they have Marcus Thames and Jorge Posada with an OPS greater than .800.

But San Diego was able to thrive with good starting pitching and a bullpen than can truncate games by 2-3 innings by reducing volatility (opponent scoring runs) in high leverage situations. According to the Pythagorean expectation, the Friar's performance was not surprising as it predicted it would win 91 games (they won 90); I thought it would underpredict their performance.

Well,
I'll be rooting for the Cincinnati Reds of course, as I am a lifelong resident of the Cinci area, though I must admit that I have little hope that they will be able to take the pennant.

They have very good pitching, but some young arms so we'll have to see how they handle the pressure.

Defense is solid in both the infield and outfield, including one fo the best Arms in all baseball on Jay Bruce in right field.
Offensively is where I worry. When their hot no one can touch 'em, but they have had trouble getting all "hot" together.

But who knows -
Anyway, after a 15 year drought, I'm just glad to see them make it to the post season.

So - I make no prediction, just a hope....and even in that hope, maybe I hope they don't take the title so that, after getting a taste of post season play, they have something to shoot for next year...

Peace
James

I meant to say, that you need to have a few good pitchers in order to be good. Having only one Felix Hernandez is not enough as is evident with the 2010 Seattle Mariners.

Go Philadelphia! Fantastic news that Mr. Halladay pitched a no-hitter!

anyone but the yankees

Yup - Well done…Just wish it hadn’t been against my Red’s :crying:

Dude! Your Reds where a great story this year, and I think they have a great future. Philly is way more experienced, and I think they’re playing with urgency-but if the Reds can stick together, your looking at a great next few years!

[quote="Rascalking, post:9, topic:214909"]
Dude! Your Reds where a great story this year, and I think they have a great future. Philly is way more experienced, and I think they're playing with urgency-but if the Reds can stick together, your looking at a great next few years!

[/quote]

I agree. The combination of experience and youth has really hit it's stride. Plus we have a talented bench and a very, and I mean very healthy farm system. I don't think "sticking together" is going to be a huge problem. Most of the players won't be free agents for awhile, and if Jay Bruce can "mature" with his bat, he and Joey Votto are going to be a tough act to follow, but great fun to watch.
Sure can't see Walt Jockerty doing anything to bust up this bunch for awhile....

Never expected that they could "go all the way" this year, especially now that they are down 2 games to none :doh2:. I'm just happy to see them make it to the play-offs. :thumbsup:

Gonna be a long winter though.....

Peace
James

Twins all the way! It'll take quite a bit for that to happen, though. We have to all of a sudden reverse our woes against the Yankees.

In the National League, I'm rooting for the Reds. For some reason I've always liked Cincinnati.

[quote="McatholicN, post:11, topic:214909"]
Twins all the way! It'll take quite a bit for that to happen, though. We have to all of a sudden reverse our woes against the Yankees.

In the National League, I'm rooting for the Reds. For some reason I've always liked Cincinnati.

[/quote]

Thanks for rooting for the Reds...
Interesting - I'm rooting for the Twins as well....Maybe just because My wife lived some years in Duluth and later, Silver Bay.....

I'm afraid your comment about the Twins and the Yank's likely holds true with the Reds and the Phillies.....:(

Ah well - We shall see.....

Wouldn't we be in a pickle if the Reds and Twins met in the Series.......:shrug:

Peace
James

The only adjective I could think of while watching Tim Lincecum’s dominating 14 K outing was beatific. I was so glad that Bruce Boochy did not send Brian Wilson and let him get the shutout. Even though I am not a Giants Fan, I certainly enjoyed it! It was something special!

Go Texas Rangers.

[quote="Black_Rose, post:13, topic:214909"]
The only adjective I could think of while watching Tim Lincecum's dominating 14 K outing was beatific. I was so glad that Bruce Boochy did not send Brian Wilson and let him get the shutout. Even though I am not a Giants Fan, I certainly enjoyed it! It was something special!

[/quote]

Halladay is sainted. Lincecum is still in the cannoziation phase! :D

[quote="JRKH, post:12, topic:214909"]
Thanks for rooting for the Reds...
Interesting - I'm rooting for the Twins as well....Maybe just because My wife lived some years in Duluth and later, Silver Bay.....

I'm afraid your comment about the Twins and the Yank's likely holds true with the Reds and the Phillies.....:(

Ah well - We shall see.....

Wouldn't we be in a pickle if the Reds and Twins met in the Series.......:shrug:

Peace
James

[/quote]

Well - No pickle this year. The Reds and the Twins are both gone.....:crying:
The Reds went down pretty quietly - Too quietly -

Ah well - Just wait 'till next year....

What is it, about 4 1/2 months till Spring Training??? :thumbsup:

Peace
James

[quote="Rascalking, post:15, topic:214909"]
Halladay is sainted. Lincecum is still in the cannoziation phase! :D

[/quote]

Maybe Timmy would wind up like Doc Gooden if he smokes too much weed. :)

Tell you what - ever since the Tampa Bay franchise dropped the "Devil" out of their name, they have fared better.;) I hope Tampa Bay wins the whole thing. They have yet to win a World Series and I usually root for the underdog.

[quote="fulbert4605, post:18, topic:214909"]
Tell you what - ever since the Tampa Bay franchise dropped the "Devil" out of their name, they have fared better.;) I hope Tampa Bay wins the whole thing. They have yet to win a World Series and I usually root for the underdog.

[/quote]

There are America's Team, since they satisfy the "anything but the Red Sox and Yankees".

[quote="Black_Rose, post:19, topic:214909"]
There are America's Team, since they satisfy the "anything but the Red Sox and Yankees".

[/quote]

The Rangers have that function now. I hope the Rangers would go all the way. I said hope!

I can't believe they gave up 5 runs in the top of the eighth before even getting an out. I guess that's likely when "the Yankees have A-Rod (BA .270, OPS .847, HR 30), Mark Tiexiera (BA .256, HR 33, OPS .846), Nick Swisher (BA .288, HR 29, OPS .870) , Robinson Cano ( BA .309, HR 29, OPS .914 ): in addition to the four, they have Marcus Thames and Jorge Posada with an OPS greater than .800. "

The batting averages and OPS are relevant since they didn't hit any home runs in that inning.

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