Trump boosters: Don’t believe the coronavirus death toll

Trump in one of his stream of consciousness moments into a microphone basically described his aversion to testing as producing higher numbers. Which he must think is bad for him personally, because it is the actual numbers.

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Seriously,do you ever take a breath re your musings about Trump? You know nothings g of the sort ,everything you post is just your negative opinions ,take a break

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Data as of this moment:

“EVERYTHING I POST?”
I forgive you. Leave it at that

This could be a serious problem. It would be good if people let Public Health officials do their job in a manner consistent with previous outbreaks.

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I don’t know what Trump comments you are referring to, but I will take what you have posted and perhaps translate it for you (without the TDS bias so prevalent in so many postings here).

Many of us in the medical field don’t really care what the overall infection rate is anymore. This virus is so transmissible that the majority of us will be infected by it. Most patients I see in the ED whom I suspect may have it will get absolutely no benefit from testing for it as their symptoms are minor and they will be sent home with instructions to quarantine and return if worsening.

There is simply no benefit in testing these patients. Not even for epidemiological purposes as there is inherent selection bias, so we cannot generalize the numbers onto the population.

So, when we test these folks (and we do test them because they want to know, and the testing is free, and we are still driven by patient satisfaction scores), all we do is drive up the overall case rate that is turned into a political football by the ignorant.

It would be better, epidemiologically, to save those tests (other than for the critically ill) and then test truly random segments of the population so we can know what the true case rate is for a region or nation.

But Trump can’t really say it that way (unless it was written out on a speech before).

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Trump boosters: Don’t believe the coronavirus death toll

Maybe they believe the numbers are a hoax perpetrated by the dems?
IE: if it is something bad against Trump, it must be a Hoax orchestrated by the Dems.

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That is an interesting attitude. Large scale testing allows us to know the rate of case development and to flatten it through isolation of those found to be infected. It is of interest to most health care workers to kept the caseload at any given time within the capacity of care givers. This strategy has worked in other countries and has kept the death toll low while allow work to continue.

The era of fake news is about conditioning the public not to believe news.

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And it is not the least bit subtle.
“Just stick with us…"
“Just remember, what you’re seeing and what you’re reading is not what’s happening…”

Only if the testing is generalizable. If we only test those with symptoms (no matter how minor), then we will have a positive selection bias that pushes the estimated case rate higher than it is.

If we want to know a true regional or national case infection rate then we need to randomly test people.

There is a time to flatten the curve. With early predictions of up to 2.2 million American deaths and an overwhelming of our ICUs then I think it was reasonable to make the political decision to take extreme measures to flatten the curve.

We’ve done it. We are on the downslope of the curve in NYC, and we never ran out of ICUs, vents, or beds. I think we were close to the breaking point of our medical system, but we bent by shifting massive resources.

All Coivid statistics are political, or are at least used politically. Testing those that are symptomatic is a start. Our goal is to get to a defensible denominator for stats, and we aren’t anywhere near that.

Edit to simply agree

Hopefully you won’t come to regret that statement. I don’t mean that belligerently, but to make the point that this isn’t over yet. Reopening now could take us up to hundreds of thousands of deaths.

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Maybe that’s because a quite a few people live where the virus has had little effect? Maybe because many of us are seeing under utilized hospitals where we live? Hospitals putting doctors and nurses on furlough or layoff have become so common that the mainstream media finally had to report on it last weekend. This after it’s been out there since the end of March for anyone with the eyes to see past the mainstream vetted stories.

More than half of all US counties have no Covid-19 deaths. Approximately 50% of all Covid-19 cases come from just 1% of all US counties and about 57% of all deaths come from those same counties. Add to that the fact that the majority of deaths have been over 60 and for the rest of us, it has much more often been something we can get over with at home.

Go here

There is a nice map of the US on this page where you can hover your mouse pointer to see a breakdown for each county of the number of case, the number of cases per 100k and the number of deaths. You can pan and zoom this map. You will find here vast areas of the country that have too few cases and deaths to warrant a full lockdown. For instance in California, starting about two hours drive north of San Francisco and one hour north of Sacramento, the entire northern quarter of the state has fewer than a dozen deaths. But Governor Newsom made them lockdown too.

#endthelockdown

A Florida editorial:

"The state of Florida is hiding information about coronavirus deaths from citizens. Under the direction of Gov. Ron DeSantis and the Florida Department of Health, the state has consistently refused to inform the public about deaths and infections in Florida nursing homes, prisons and now, coronavirus deaths as documented by public medical examiners.

As fatalities from the virus continue to increase daily, never in recent historical memory has there been a more unsettling display of Florida government’s dark impulses to conceal the truth from its own citizens. Citizens should be outraged.

Crucial reporting from the Miami Herald Wednesday night detailed the state of Florida’s decision to blackout large swaths of public information from data sheets about statewide deaths due to coronavirus."

The feared bias is irrelevant to the perspective of testing, tracing, and isolating. And any effect it would have on understanding the dimension of the contagion could be corrected for in the analysis of the data. It is worth noting that thus far in the US, with its low rate of testing, we have less than one in six testing positive. And that ratio is skewed high from regions where we already have experienced the epidemic getting out of hand.

We’ve done it with lock down. Now the question is: are the steps being taken in the re-start reasonable or do they put us at risk of resuming the viral spread just as we had had it before the lock down. Any suggestion that they threat is past and we can suddenly return to normal is not reasonable
.

Hopefully, they would like to keep it that way.
And will be willing to cooperate in responsible actions to make that so.

This has been going on for a while. DeSantis is not including the deaths of snowbirds in his numbers so that the numbers will not look as bad.

Meanwhile, in Arizona, the major universities have be ordered to shut down their work on tracking and reporting on the pandemic.

Some people seem more interested in dealing with appearances than the reality of the pandemic.

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This is not feared bias, this is actual scientific bias. This is science, not the fearmongering that occurs in court.

And I’m not talking about political bias, but a specific scientific term called selection bias.

Could be theoretically corrected. And different theories would be applied, giving wider ranges of accuracy, none of which would be terribly accurate.

How many Americans were going to die from COVID-19?

The lockdown may have done it, or may have just been a part of it. We don’t know.

I don’t know anyone who is saying the threat is past.

To be fair, not that many states put out the actual numbers of cases and deaths in long term care facilities as well as the names of those facilities reporting at least one case. Maybe not to the extent that DeSantis has, but other governors haven’t been entirely forthcoming either. I know one will not find that data in the California reports, for instance.

MA is an example state I often refer to as theirs is the most complete state reporting data I’ve seen so far. Other posters are invited to submit examples of states that also post very complete data.

City policies don’t fit rural areas. I should think that’s evident from a casual study of the map I posted upthread. Did you even look at it?

Governor Newsom’s lockdown order ties up all of the northern quarter of California for less than a dozen deaths. But you think it’s worth it?

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