Trump budget plan could add $6tn to public debt in a decade, analysts say


#1

From the Guardian:

Donald Trump’s tax-cutting and spending plans could add another $6tn to the US public debt over the next 10 years, independent budget analysts have calculated, as the Congressional Budget Office warned the US’s current spending plans alone could trigger a financial crisis.

The CBO released its latest assessment of the US budget and economic outlook on Tuesday. The CBO reported that Trump would inherit a $559bn deficit for 2017 and still-sluggish economy that will, on its current course, add another $10tn to the public debt over the next decade.

Trump’s campaign promises of major tax cuts and a vast infrastructure investment would add $6tn to that debt, according to independent analysis by the nonpartisan thinktank Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jan/24/federal-debt-deficit-trump-budget


#2

“More fake news from the liberal media. Nothing to see here.”

Sorry. Just anticipating the next 10 posts from Trump supporters :smiley:


#3

I have seen these numbers from other sources, and they are accurate.

This is day two of the Trump administration, so I am not surprised that the course isn’t changed yet.

Note the words “on its current course”. This is why we elected Trump; to change our course from progressive stupidity. Many things are going to change in the next few months.


#4

So do you think that Mr. Trump is going to abandon his tax cut and increased infrastructure spending plans?


#5

I don’t know. What I do know is that we need to wait for more things to happen before we are capable of making accurate predictions. I hear that Trump intends to cut a lot of things which have bloated government spending for decades.

Bottom line: people who claim to be making conclusive projections right now, two days into the new administration, are not credible, because they haven’t even waited for enough information to arrive.


#6

If my math is right, the projection is now $35 trillion?

And then hope the Fed doesn’t do another QE.

It would be interesting to see how many foreigners will be buying Treasuries to finance this debt. This would have to be part of the deal Trump makes with the foreign countries. I would think.


#7

I’m not sure how these so-called independent budget analysts came up with any figure given the tax changes have yet to be formalized and passed.


#8

Now the Dems are worried about the debt? 6 trillion would be almost 4 trillion less than Obama added to the debt and that was in 8 years.


#9

Fiscal responsibility always seems to be more important when your party is out of power.


#10

The economy is in clearly different shape now than it was in 2009. Now’s the time to get the budget in order. We need to focus on keeping debt below a certain percentage of GDP. Same with the deficit. In the long term.


#11

As we are a nation of borrowers, I don’t see that as changing.


#12

True of a lot of things for politicians and sadly many Christians.


#13

Yes, better we have conservative stupidity. :stuck_out_tongue:


#14

Whether that’s good or bad depends on what you’re borrowing the money for. I know at least this much from local bankers. They’re pretty optimistic about lending money in the future if the over-regulation of their institutions is relaxed at least somewhat, and about the commercial borrowing that might follow a better business environment.

Consumer lending is a sideline for most banks. The real money is in commercial lending. But before business people will borrow to expand, they have to believe they won’t get tripped up by some governmental fantasyland measures.

This might turn out a lot better than some think.


#15

From the actual document the story cites:

CBO’s projections were completed before the new Administration took office on January 20, 2017. They do not incorporate any effects of executive orders or other actions taken by that Administration.

I think you may have inadvertently swerved into the truth.

cbo.gov/sites/default/files/115th-congress-2017-2018/reports/52370-outlook.pdf


#16

You are right, but you could have added that this would also be a significant slowing of the rate of debt growth. Obama doubled the debt in 8 years. This plan would be a 30% increase in 10 years.

Obama also got a significant amount repaid from the bank bailout that was loaned during the Bush administration. It made his deficit number look better than it actually was. Repairing the damage from the ACA has already been dumped on whoever the Obama successor was, and it was intentional. The inevitable rise in interest rates will also mean a huge increase in interest expense. We will also be closer to the date when Medicare and Social Security cannot pay promised benefits from the dedicated taxes that pretend to fund them. I cannot believe benefits will be cut for current retirees, so those programs will tap into general revenues.

No one can turn around the fiscal mess in the US in one or two presidential terms, especially if the public loses its patience and elects new people who head off in a new direction. A reasonable and responsible solution will require at least a generation or two.

I also have to add the important caveat, IF IT ACTUALLY HAPPENS. Long term projections are mostly useless because they always assume nothing bad will happen until the next guy is in office.


#17

Ironically enough, Clinton was the last president to show financial responsibility. I do not know how far back you would have to go to find another.

But yes, this should not be a surprise. One cannot cut taxes and increase spending without driving a country into bankruptcy. I know Trump knows this. I do not know that it has occurred to him that a country cannot file for reorganization like the businesses he drove into the ground.


#18

I believe the budget had been last balanced in 1969 after they imposed a 10% surtax to pay for the war.


#19

A lot of people who supported Trump (me included) are concerned about the debt. So anticipation nullified. :stuck_out_tongue:

But I guess I should be pleased now that a republican is in office the left is now really concerned about the budget again.


#20

How about no stupidity from anyone?


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