Trump confounds many Republicans with last-minute push in Virginia


#1

washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/trump-confounds-many-republicans-with-last-minute-push-in-virginia/2016/10/24/3883ed18-97a5-11e6-bc79-af1cd3d2984b_story.html

The reason why he is in Virginia is he doesn’t have enough electoral votes even if all current toss up states go his way. See:
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Said another way, this race is over and Hillary won it.


#2

It ain’t over until it’s over.


#3

Is the date on the real clear politics map today?

Texas is a toss up? Texas?


#4

Well we knew that a long time ago. :wink:

It’s not pleasant but it was just wishful thinking to think someone could beat her. Our country is just that far gone, has been for a while. :shrug:


#5

And even then, maybe not quite.


#6

The race is not over until the votes are counted.

We elect a President based on votes …not on the media nor on polls (positive or negative).


#7

Kasich and Jeb Bush could have beaten her. Probably Rubio as well. Sanders within her own party came close to beating her.

Really, in light of her massive unpopularity and evident flaws, she could have been beaten pretty much hands down had the GOP not had a collective fit of absence of mind.

But she likely isn’t going too lose, because Trump has run such a ludicrous and appalling campaign.


#8

That’s why I refuse to give him my vote. Maybe we will have a better canidate next time, not too promising from what they gave us this time around.


#9

Let’s remember. Jimmy Carter was a 1 term president. After that Ronald Reagan came along.

Hillary could also be one term. Then maybe, by then the Republican Party can regroup and get together and a really great candidate will emerge in 4 years.


#10

For the sake of American democracy, I pray this transpires.


#11

Perhaps the Trump campaign has internal polling which shows it closer in Virginia than the regular polls.


#12

FiveThirtyEight gives Trump 81.7% chance of winning in Texas, 18.3% for Clinton: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/texas/

Analysts Doubt Texas Is A Toss-Up State

dfw.cbslocal.com/2016/10/24/analysts-doubt-texas-is-a-toss-up-state/

Yet Texas is put in the category of “Toss Ups” by Real Clear Politics? What does that say about Real Clear Politics?


#13

I was sure that was the case when Obama was elected, and his first term showed that was going to be the case. Then, someone decided to reelect him.

Never underestimate the selfishness and ability of the American voter to vote against their own best interests. The “middle class” deserves whatever misery they find themselves mired in. Regardless, even in four years, decades of damage will be done. We are still reeling from Roe vs Wade 40 years ago. Not even Ronald Reagan could right that grave offense to our Lord, nor save the millions of lives lost it gave us.


#14

It would be incredible if Texas went Democratic. One for the history books. I really don’t care who wins this election although I hope it’s a close race election day, just for the excitement. But I’m all right (or rather, not all right) either way.


#15

RCP places states in the Toss Up category based purely on polls. Fivethirtyeight uses some other items in their projections.

Even with that, Fivethirtyeight has Hillary with 338.9 electoral votes, more than enough of the 270 needed to win. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

As one pundant put it: Trump’s chances of winning before 2 weeks ago were slim to none. Now slim has packed up and left.


#16

The problem is that Hillary will do far more damage in 4 years than Jimmy Carter.

Also, I’m sorry… but Hillary is elected, the only way she doesn’t win re-election is if she’s indicted.

The media will label any one attacking her record as anti-woman.


#17

At that point I lost faith in our beautiful system of checks and balances. That ruling was made outside the realm of Congress and the President.


#18

Nate Silver wrote an interesting piece about 538 being more bullish on Trump than other oddsmakers.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-our-model-is-more-bullish-than-others-on-trump/?ex_cid=2016-forecast


#19

Good luck with that…
A HC presidency will set into place a one party dominance for yeats to come,if not permanetly. Which is why everything is at stake re this election.


#20

Yet look at Trump and Clinton in early voting in a number of the swing states. I saw a clip of an interview of Sean Spicer on CNN and excuse me this may not be perfectly transcribed regarding what he said but he was talking about the data in regards to absentee ballots and he explained how “in almost every case” Republicans are “ahead” compared to 2012 and Democrats are “below” where they were in the 2012 election. He pointed out what 850,000 more Republicans have requested a ballot compared to 2012. I think that may have just been for Florida. He explained how, “Republicans do better on Election Day, we’ve always lagged behind Democrats have always done better in early vote. What we’re seeing in this cycle is we’re catching up to them and they’re not doing as well as they have in the past and they have an enthusiasm gap. So if they can’t win by wide margins, I’ll give you one example, North Carolina, Barack Obama had a 300,000 vote lead going in in 2012, and lost on Election Day”

“They need to be winning not by a little bit by a lot and when we cut into that lead and when they don’t do as well that portends very well for us on Election Day”.

That is significant.


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