Trump cuts into Clinton’s lead as crucial stretch begins


The final stretch of the longest presidential campaign in history opens this week. Think it’s been ugly? You’ve seen nothing yet.

Both Hillary Clinton’s and Donald Trump’s teams see September as the month that will make — or break — their candidate’s case for the White House. A confident Clinton fighting to keep expectations in check will ratchet up her get-out-the-vote operation while courting more Republicans to her camp. A defiant Trump will double down on the America-first message that he thinks got him this far in the first place. The Democrat’s allies will continue to blanket the battleground airwaves with stinging attacks on Trump’s character. And three weeks into the month, early voting periods will open, state by state.

Read more:

Now is when people start paying attention

Early voting by state

From here on out what counts is the electoral college


One of the main issues last year was how much advertising was really reaching the voters.

Dick Morris noted “TV commercials have not been as effective because people Ti-Vo them out” and after a while people tune out the advertising certainly on traditional media among some of those who still watch it.

If Democrats have as good as turnout as they did in 2008, very tough for Trump to win. If Trump gets a good chunk of the minority vote (he’s getting much more than many people think and 60% of the white vote while winning mixed race, Native Americans and married women) he wins the election.

Also, independents have been voting GOP (Romney even won their overall vote in 2012) since 2009 and no real reason to change.

In 2012 Obama’s stints on friendly venues helped to drag him and Biden across the finish line, coupled with lower GOP turnout and terrible outreach to Evangelicals by Romney.


A 4.1% RCP average popular vote advantage for Clinton is as good as the actual number was for Obama in 2012 and better than Bush in 2000 or 2004.

And Steve Kannicki explains the electoral map problem for Mr. Trump.


If your going to compare final results you need to enter in the others who are running. Then you get a closer race, within the margin of error

However, the real race from now on is the electoral college, not the popular vote.


And 3.4 would still be a larger win than we have seen for a candidate in 2 of the last 4 elections. Topping Bush both in 2000 and 2004. But you are right it is only the EC that matters. Ask Al Gore what a popular vote win gets him. And most if not all EC forecasts still show a Clinton win.


Assigning their tossups, even RCP shows a Clinton landslide right now. And as the OP pointed out, early voting begins soon.

Here’s more on Trump’s troublesome road ahead.

Put the reliably red states in Trump’s column and reliably blue in Clinton’s. She starts off with 242 electoral votes to 180 for Trump. That leaves 10 potential battleground states — Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Ohio, Iowa, Indiana, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico — with a total of 116 electoral votes.

Trump practically has to sweep those states to win. But Clinton could lose every one of those states except Florida and still win the presidency. Or she could merely win Virginia (where she is heavily favored) and Ohio (where she narrowly leads). Clinton also has a large lead in Colorado. In other words, she has multiple paths, Trump doesn’t.

Demographics pose another hurdle to the Republican nominee’s path to 270, and Trump has done little to help himself by broadening his appeal.

Trump is on track to win an even smaller share of the Hispanic vote than the 30 percent Mitt Romney received nationally in 2012. Polls likewise show Trump with single-digit support among African-American voters.

Even matching Romney’s 59 percent share of white voters could be a stretch, given that polls consistently show Trump struggling to win over college-educated white voters who make up about one-third of the electorate, and women in general.

The Fox News national poll released this week showed Trump leading among white voters by 13 percentage points and among white women by two percentage points. In 2012, Romney lost after winning white voters by 20 percentage points, and winning white women by 12 percentage points.

“You keep hearing this explanation from their team that he is going to run up the score with white, male voters and white voters in general,” said political scientist Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia Center for Politics. “No, he’s going to run up the score with white voters without a college education. Yeah, I agree he may set a record there, but he’s losing badly in loads of other categories.”


Trump’s numbers may go up a little more, but he won’t get anywhere near a victory. He has a ceiling that he cannot break through.


Right - voter turnout will determine who wins. Will Clinton match Obama numbers, turnout. And what will the independents do. Will enough Evangelicals and Catholics vote for Trump. Also what will be the breakdown for blacks, women, Hispanics. If Trump makes an inroad there, even just a small one (i.e. better than Romney), it could be enough. But the Democrats always start out with the advantage, and I would not put fraud off the table. I was raised to think the Democrats were the “good guys” but I am beginning to wonder if they ever were, let alone what is going on now. Not that I admire the GOP all that much…but to my mind they are clearly and definitely the lesser of two evils this time around.


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