Assigning their tossups, even RCP shows a Clinton landslide right now. And as the OP pointed out, early voting begins soon.
Here’s more on Trump’s troublesome road ahead.
Put the reliably red states in Trump’s column and reliably blue in Clinton’s. She starts off with 242 electoral votes to 180 for Trump. That leaves 10 potential battleground states — Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Ohio, Iowa, Indiana, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico — with a total of 116 electoral votes.
Trump practically has to sweep those states to win. But Clinton could lose every one of those states except Florida and still win the presidency. Or she could merely win Virginia (where she is heavily favored) and Ohio (where she narrowly leads). Clinton also has a large lead in Colorado. In other words, she has multiple paths, Trump doesn’t.
Demographics pose another hurdle to the Republican nominee’s path to 270, and Trump has done little to help himself by broadening his appeal.
Trump is on track to win an even smaller share of the Hispanic vote than the 30 percent Mitt Romney received nationally in 2012. Polls likewise show Trump with single-digit support among African-American voters.
Even matching Romney’s 59 percent share of white voters could be a stretch, given that polls consistently show Trump struggling to win over college-educated white voters who make up about one-third of the electorate, and women in general.
The Fox News national poll released this week showed Trump leading among white voters by 13 percentage points and among white women by two percentage points. In 2012, Romney lost after winning white voters by 20 percentage points, and winning white women by 12 percentage points.
“You keep hearing this explanation from their team that he is going to run up the score with white, male voters and white voters in general,” said political scientist Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia Center for Politics. “No, he’s going to run up the score with white voters without a college education. Yeah, I agree he may set a record there, but he’s losing badly in loads of other categories.”